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Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
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Apr 22 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
Senior #Russian military official & various politicians openly suggest that Russia plans to seize from #Ukraine not only entire #Donbas but also other regions of Easters & Southern Ukraine & declare them independent or annex to #Russia via referendum. theguardian.com/world/2022/apr…
My research & KMIS survey that I commissioned show that in contrast to #Crimea & #Donbas, only small minorities in other regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine, respectively 3% & 5% total, supported their region joining #Russia or independence. washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
My article with more detailed survey-based analysis showing marginal support in other regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine for their region joining #Russia or independence, in contrast to #Crimea and #Donbass

#Ukraine️war #Ukraina #RussiaUkraineWar researchgate.net/publication/29…
Correction: "only small minorities in other regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine, respectively 5% & 3% total, supported their region joining #Russia or independence."
"Crimean State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia Dmitry Belik said that the Russian authorities can create a "Crimean Federal District", including, in addition to the peninsula, areas of continental Ukraine captured by the Russian army." strana.news/news/387622-v-…
"Crimean State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia Dmitry Belik said that the Russian authorities can create a "Crimean Federal District", including, in addition to the peninsula, areas of continental Ukraine captured by the Russian army." strana.news/news/387622-v-…
"According to Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the committee on international affairs of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, Ukraine regions in this regard can follow the path of Crimea and Abkhazia - hold a "referendum" and become part of the Russian Federation."

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More from @I_Katchanovski

Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 23
UN mission confirms #WarCrimes in #Bucha: "During a mission to Bucha on 9 April, UN human rights officers documented the unlawful killing, including by summary execution, of some 50 civilians." #Ukraine️ #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar 1/ ohchr.org/en/press-relea…
UN: "Wilful killing of protected persons, including summary executions, are gross violations of international human rights law and serious violations of international humanitarian law, and amount to war crimes." 2/
"Since 24 February to midnight on 20 April, HRMMU has documented and verified 5,264 civilian casualties – 2,345 killed and 2,919 injured. Of these, 92.3 per cent (2,266 killed and 2,593 injured) were recorded in Government-controlled territory." #Ukraine️ #UkraineRussiaWar 3/
Read 8 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 23
Virtual #Russia - #Ukraine peace talks resumed yesterday: "According to Meduza's sources, who are familiar with the course of negotiations (from both the #Russian and #Ukrainian sides), several preliminary agreements were "concretized." #UkraineWar 1/ meduza.io/feature/2022/0…
"Two agreements are currently being discussed:
the first agreement, a political one, on the neutral, non-nuclear status of Ukraine and the security guarantees that the guarantor countries will have to provide...
and the second about "mutual respect for cultures..."
#Russia 2/
"Most important issue of the post-war borders of Ukraine has not yet been resolved. “There is an article in the agreement that the guarantor countries guarantee security within the borders of Ukraine, indicated on the map. The map is in the appendix. And it's not ready yet.” 3/
Read 8 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 22
"Those who follow the news about the war in Ukraine represent between 57% and 77% of those surveyed in all but three of the 27 countries. The only exceptions are Japan (89%) and Sweden (83%) at one end of the spectrum and Malaysia (49%) at the other." 1/ ipsos.com/en/war-in-ukra… Image
"27-country average of 82% say that the war in Ukraine poses a great deal or a fair amount of risk to the world as a whole; 61% say that it does to their country. The perception that one’s own country is facing a significant risk is most prevalent in Japan (87%), Poland (77%)" 2/ Image
"Globally, about one-third say it poses at least a fair amount of risk to them personally (36%), their family (34%), and their job or business (37%). Countries whose citizens most tend to feel personally exposed by the war in Ukraine are India (56%), Poland (50%), Japan (53%)" 3/
Read 9 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 20
Ivan Katchanovski, a Ukrainian political scientist at the University of Ottawa, says that there are neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine, and though they are a tiny proportion of the population, they have played an “outsized role” in political and military affairs csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2…
“That is a gift to Russian propaganda, that these groups were not dealt with before,” says Professor Katchanovski. “Neo-Nazis are a relatively small segment of Ukraine, but the fact that they are integrated in the Ukrainian armed forces and tolerated by Zelenskyy is a problem. 2/
My @csmonitor interview: "These right-wing groups are real enough, but the [Kremlin] claim about Nazis in the Ukrainian government and army as a pretext for this illegal invasion of Ukraine is basically false.” #Ukraine️ #ukrainewar #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussia #Russia 3/
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 20
"Another poll conducted by the CBS-AXA Center for Sociological Research and Marketing shows that 38.4% [of the Moldova population] finds Russia at fault [for the Russia-Ukraine war], 20.6% blame Ukraine, and 40% refused to answer or do not know." 1/ bne.eu/gagauzia-s-pro…
"The tsars “proclaimed themselves defenders of the Orthodox people in the Balkans,” writes Ivan Katchanovski of the University of Ottawa." #Ukraine #Moldova #Russia 2/ researchgate.net/publication/24…
"Katchanovski writes that Gagauzia was “one of the least educated and [most] impoverished groups during Romanian rule in 1918-40 and 1941-44” and experienced severe discrimination in contrast with Moldovans, who were considered ethnic Romanians."" 3/
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Apr 19
Global economic impact of #RussiaUkraineWar: "The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia’s invasion could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs." 1/
theguardian.com/business/2022/…
Global economic impact of #RussiaUkraineWar: "In a half-yearly update, the IMF said prospects had worsened “significantly” in the past three months as it reduced its growth estimate for 2022 from 4.4% to 3.6%." #Ukraine #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar 2/
Global economic impact of #RussiaUkraineWar: "Every member of the G7 group of leading industrialised nations and the bigger developing countries would grow less rapidly this year than previously expected, and there was a strong risk of an even worse outcome." #Ukraine #Russia 3/
Read 5 tweets

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