Three possible scenarios to explain this intensified messaging by #Russia regarding #WMD use in #Ukraine: 1) Russia has reliable intel that the #USA and #Ukraine are planning this attack and have released this info to stave off the attack or ensure the world knows who did it.
2) #Russia does not have reliable intel of such an attack but is deeply concerned about the possibility. Therefore #Russian leadership wants to get this message out in front of the potential calamity of #WMD use in #Ukraine and to ensure the world knows 🇷🇺 is not to blame.
3) Growing casualties, slow progress and an increasingly entrenched #Ukraine have caused #Russian leadership to lose patience with the #War. 🇷🇺 has decided to try to break the countries resolve and armed forces ability and will to fight with a series of #WMD attacks.
This message being an effort and opportunity to absolve #Russia of responsibility at least domestically and with its iron clad allies. **End scenario** Other possibilities exist as well. We just see these as the most likely ones.

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More from @AggregateOsint

Apr 25
#Bryansk, #Russia - The Druzhba oil depot in the city exploded overnight in #Bryansk. An additional explosion occurred nearby as well that was purportedly a #Russian ammo storage area. The cause of the explosion is not known, however other 🇷🇺 oil depots have exploded recently.
Photos from the burning Druzhba Oil Depot and ammunition storage area in #Bryansk #Russia. Still no confirmed cause of the explosion. An oil depot in #Belgorod was also recently destroyed. #Russia depends heavily on these depots to support its #War in #Ukraine. ImageImageImageImage
Still no confirmation from #Russia or any other actors of the cause of the explosion in Bryansk at the oil depot and the reported ammo storage. Bryansk is the administrative center of the Bryansk Oblast. The city is situated around 65 miles (105km) from the #Ukraine Border. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 24
#Donetsk Axis Update - #Ukrainian GenStaff indirectly acknowledged that Novotoshkivs’ke was captured by #Russians by stating Orikhove was under attack. Orikhove can only be accessed through Novotoshkivs’ke. Also ack’ed was an ongoing assault on the town of Nyzhnie. Image
In #Popasna, #Russia did not take any new ground but likely controls around half of the city. 🇺🇦 also stated that 🇷🇺 is reinforcing this assault with manpower and heavy weapons to complete the capture of the city. Source: m.facebook.com/story.php?stor… Image
Also in #Popasna today, video was released showing significant destruction from shelling to include shrapnel peppered residential doors. Two people were killed by #Russian shelling in the city yesterday after artillery rounds hit a residential building. aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 24
#Izyum Axis Update - #Ukrainian General Staff acknowledges that #Russians have breached 🇺🇦 defensive lines on the Zherebets River and around #Zarichne and have taken partial control of the city. 🇷🇺 is continuing its assault S to capture the entire city. m.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua Image
#Ukraine General Staff claims failed #Russians assaults on Lyman and Yatskiva, #Donetsk Oblast. However, no comment was provided on the status of Rubsti, which #Russians were attacking over the last two days. Image
#Ukraine General Staff further claims that no new advances were made in #Rubizhne, which is likely true. However, #Russian troops have a large foothold and have filmed numerous videos of 🇷🇺 controlled areas to the N, W & NW. Videos of combat show 🇷🇺 controls 1/2 of the city. ⬇️
Read 4 tweets
Apr 24
#Russian launched Cruise Missiles fly over #Poltava #Ukraine.
Another #Russian cruise missiles flying low over #Kremenchuk #Ukraine. It is believed that these were launched from ships in the Black Sea but that part is not confirmed.
Two new videos of #Russian launched cruise missiles over the #Ukrainian controlled cities of #Poltava and #Kremenchuk (circled in blue) this morning. No info on impacts, damage or casualties yet. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 24
Despite the recent blockade of #Azovstal and #Putin’s ban on a direct assault, #Russian troops continue to advance on the plant. Intel suggests that 🇷🇺 may have split the complex into two pockets. If true,#Ukrainian defenders will have a harder time w supplies and manpower. Image
Video of recent #Russian advances in #Mariupol. Translation needed. These advances are likely due to dwindling supplies available to #Ukrainian troops in the plant. The fighting over the last several weeks has been using huge quantities of ppl & ammo that can’t be replaced.
#Russian drone footage posted today showing shelling and direct fire strikes on the #Azovstal Plant in #Mariupol. The destruction at the plant is immense. Reminder: In addition to #Azov Regiment and #Ukrainian #Marines there are still hundreds of civilians inside the plant.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 24
Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova the Director of Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for #Russia stated that the #USA was going to use #WMD in #Ukraine in order to change public opinion about #Russia. ria.ru/20220423/davle…
"It is obvious that the original plan of the United States was to put economic pressure on Russia in order to force it to completely reconsider its legitimate security interests.”
“Now the States are moving to
the use of WMD, in fact - to the games behind the "red line". If this happens, the victims will be incalculable. And each of them is
on the conscience of American strategists in the offices of the White House, the State Department and The Pentagon..”
Read 9 tweets

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