Duo Nine Profile picture
May 9 β€’ 21 tweets β€’ 13 min read
1/ Time to dispel the myths around #Terra / #Luna / #UST once & for all!

Is it decentralized? Is UST a stablecoin? Is it #SAFU?

What are the alternatives???

Are you with me?

Here's the thread you've been waiting for. πŸ‘‡
2/ Before I debunk the most important myths about Terra, I suggest you check my earlier thread on this to understand the context better.

Ready? Let's start with myth number 1. πŸ‘‡

3/ Myth number 1:

🚨 "Terra / Luna / UST is decentralized."

Verdict: FALSE ❌

I can explain, lets's look at the Terra / Luna network first and then UST. πŸ‘‡
4/ Terra Luna is not decentralized unless 130 validators qualify as such (see below).

#ETH has millions of validators. Why does #Luna have ONLY 130 validators?

Having more would dilute profits made by said validators running the network.

Next UST. πŸ‘‡

5/ UST is centrally controlled and managed. From minting to burning & USD peg management.

First, minting: Terra insiders & its Foundation minted all Luna for free (see tweet below).

They proceeded to use that to mint UST.

Next, burning. πŸ‘‡

6/ They burn the #Luna they minted for free to issue UST.

Then they swap #UST for anything else.

The more the Terra ecosystem grows, the more options they have to do so. Including, buying #Bitcoin.

See 4pool on Curve as an example.

Next. πŸ‘‡

7/ More Luna burnt = more UST + higher Luna price = more UST...

But what backs all this "new money"?

The "ecosystem" they say. Sounds familiar?

This new money, particularly $18 bil worth of UST has NO BACKING!

Time to talk about the UST peg. πŸ‘‡

8/ If UST has no backing, something will break right, RIGHT?

YES. The #UST peg to the dollar!!!

Most recently, in May 2022. It also broke in May 2021... weird.

OK, but it is not so bad, they have BTC to defend the peg, RIGHT?

About that... πŸ‘‡

9/ This "decentralized" ecosystem had a meeting where "the Council" had "a vote" to defend the peg with a $1.5 bil Bitcoin/UST allocation.

This centralized peg management has nothing to do with decentralization.

It's actually a massive red flag. πŸ‘‡

10/ Don't get lost in the details, red flags are everywhere.

The biggest is UST losing peg recently.

UST is prone to lose its peg to the USD due to its design!

How much money do they have left to keep the peg afloat, see pic?

Let's see nextπŸ‘‡
11/ Today's values:

Peg defense reserve: $3 bil (they used $1.5 bil already)
Luna market cap: $20 bil
UST mcap: $18 bil

With Luna's mcap falling, do you see a problem?

The UST peg is about to collapse at this rate.

UST mcap > Luna mcap = 🀯

Next myth number 2. πŸ‘‡
12/ Myth number 2:

🚨 "UST is a stablecoin."

Verdict: FALSE ❌

UST is actually Luna with a different label due to the mint/burn mechanism

Expect to see UST lose peg often due to that, particularly when UST mcap > Luna mcap.

Or well before that, like now (see pic)

Moreso πŸ‘‡
13/ UST is a stablecoin in name & works well in a bull market

As soon as a bear market starts, things collapse around it since it has no collateral to back it

They do have some #BTC, but not $18 bil worth of it

Do you get what I'm saying?

Next myth πŸ‘‡

14/ Myth no. 3:

🚨 "Do Kwon is the next Steve Jobs of crypto."

Verdict: FALSE ❌

Terra community has turned into a cult with members now called Lunatics & Do Kwon their leader.

They reject anything that is not part of their echo chamber.

Moreso πŸ‘‡

15/ Lunatics even created a meme that shows how UST is a centralized mess led by their cult leader.

"Mfer we are the peg". This was written by their leader and Lunatics have it as their avatars now.

Let me translate this logo for you. πŸ‘‡
16/ "we are the peg" = everyone involved in Terra has to defend UST peg.

The UST backing is the Terra "ecosystem". 🀣

Do you recall that somewhere? See tweet #7.

This cult is really dangerous, particularly when it is about your money.

Always ask, who benefits? πŸ‘‡
17/ Myth no. 4:

🚨 "It is safe to keep my money in UST. Terra is #SAFU!"

Verdict: FALSE ❌

While Anchor's UST yield is tempting, don't fall for it! The risks are huge in a bear market.

The biggest being a depeg event like now & liquidations.

What are the alternatives? πŸ‘‡
18/ As the narrative around #Terra / #Luna / #UST is slowly crumbling under the bear market, what are the alternatives?

See this thread on stables that I did to start with.

But there is more. πŸ‘‡

19/ If you want a truly decentralized stablecoin, look into #LUSD (based on ETH).

There are also more exotic stables similar to the Luna/UST model (copy/pasted), like #USN & #USDD.

USDD promise 30% returns. But play safe!

It is not without risk! πŸ‘‡

20/ UST biggest risk is its inflated market cap, if USN or USNN also explode into a bubble, they will face similar challenges.

Current stable yields for these:

$USN 20%
$USDD 30%

I'd not touch UST right now even if it pays 18%.

Next πŸ‘‡
21/ If you liked this thread, #retweet the first post to get more of this content in the future! 😍

Stay in touch + follow @DU09BTC:

Discord: bit.ly/3n2gng0
TradingView: bit.ly/3FUjwHj
YouTube: bit.ly/3p8vPdf
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More from @DU09BTC

May 9
There is $100 mil in Curve left to exit from UST.

Binance bids at $0.98 are being replenished with $10-20 mil every few min.

So far their defense looks solid.

Unlikely Do Kwon pockets can absorb hundreds of millions of sales per hour.

That is money he is losing/hour.
Ok, they ran out of money already, lol.
They refilled it. I suspect they may start selling Luna if they run out of cash... Luna is under $50 already... wtf.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 18
1/ You no longer have to trust anon FUD on Twitter about #UST

You can now trust the well respected Wall Street Journal @WSJ

Here are the key points in their article that should raise your eyebrows. πŸ‘€

UST is on a thin line as its founder fights the SEC in court.

A thread πŸ‘‡
2/ Exhibit 1:

"A new breed of cryptocurrencies is seeking to replicate the stability of the dollar. But critics say they are a disaster waiting to happen."

They mean #UST and DAI+BUSD/Paxos fudding UST.

Next πŸ‘‡
3/ Exhibit 2:

"...algorithmic stablecoins aren’t necessarily backed by any assets at all. Instead they rely on financial engineering to maintain their link to the dollar. Some have failed, saddling investors with losses."

Is UST backed? Nope.

Next πŸ‘‡
Read 16 tweets
Apr 15
1/ Time to look at the main stablecoins, including people's favorite #UST which looks rather weak.

There is one undisputed winner, despite any criticism.

The reason? Adoption, liquidity, and volume.

The rest are kings in their niche. A thread πŸ‘‡

#USDT #USDC #BUSD #DAI #UST Image
2/ Ranking by market cap is easy (see pic), but that barely says anything.

What is more important is volume and where this volume comes from!

Let's do a ranking by 7-day volume divided by mcap.

See next tweet for the results. πŸ‘‡ Image
3/ WoW look at that #UST adoption... barely any. Even DAI looks better.

1. #USDT = 4.78 (392 bil volume / 82 bil mcap)
2. #BUSD = 1.59 (27 / 17)
3. #USDC = 0.58 (29 / 50)
4. #DAI = 0.28 (2.5 / 9)
5. #UST = 0.20 (3.4 / 17)

Clearly, USDT and BUSD are in their own class.

Why? πŸ‘‡
Read 18 tweets
Apr 12
1/ Daily Anchor Yield Reserve Update. A thread. 🧡

65 days left. 😱

Important poll in tweet #4.

Link for more juicy details at the end of this thread. πŸ‘‡
2/ On track to hit 0.
3/ The total TLV in Anchor is falling by a few billions.

I wonder what caused it?

#Luna's price crashing maybe? πŸ˜…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
🚨 1/ Have Terra #UST & #Luna topped?

The UST market cap is giving me top signals (see pic).

Since UST & Luna are basically the same things with different labels, you need to be careful!

Particularly when #BTC is flashing a major bear signal!

Here's my update, a thread. πŸ‘‡ Image
2/ Let's start with UST & why you want UST growth to continue at all costs

A falling UST mcap = more Luna minted = Luna sold = Luna crash

Basically the pump cycle, but now in reverse. This is a big NO-NO for Terra.

Let's look at Luna next πŸ‘‡

3/ With the price now firmly under $100, Luna's uptrend is over.

What makes this worse is that #BTC is not giving much hopium right now.

If BTC falls under $40k, altcoins will be in HUGE trouble.

See next for a #BTC overview. πŸ‘‡

Read 10 tweets
Apr 9
1/🚨 Market Update 🚨

#Bitcoin just confirmed a major bearish signal, not seen since July 2018. 😱

BTC crashed 63% after that in 2018! Can history repeat?

At least PAY ATTENTION. You cannot ignore this.

A thread. πŸ‘‡ Image
2/ On the weekly timeframe, the 50-week moving average (in yellow) was just confirmed as RESISTANCE by the price action.

The detailed chart for 2022 is below.

Let's look at 2018 as well next. πŸ‘‡ Image
3/ Similar to now, in 2018, the 50-week moving average acted as RESISTANCE after the price broke below it.

What followed was a 63% crash in the price of #Bitcoin.

This deserves your full attention.

How low can #BTC go this time if this pattern is confirmed? πŸ‘‡ Image
Read 7 tweets

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