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May 11 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
🧵#Russia will annex Kherson obl without even fake referendum. Local puppet govern-t will address #Putin and RU will issue a decree. What does it mean? 1) RU doesn’t feel stable on occupied areas, they can’t afford even fake referendum as in 2014. No local support at all
2) #Ukraine’s army is fighting on the borders of #Kherson obl, and after #lendlease prospect for broader counterattack is more than real. 🇷🇺tries to declare this territories as Russian before that.
3) it changes nothing for plans of UA and West. Idea to fight up to liberation of entire territory will be even more important. 4) later it will be used to justify general mobilization in RU.

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More from @Mariia_Zolkina

Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 30
Regiment #Azov continues to be absurdly accused of being “neo-nazi/extremists/far-right”. Working with media as an expert I state: journalists in many cases do not dig deep, don’t understand context and use myths about Azov without attempt of fact checking. Here is a 🧵
Where are media often wrong? 1.Biletsky isn’t a leader of Azov. He neither commands it, nor influences commanders. He has no formal relation to regiment, which is part of National Guard of UA. He is leader of party “National corpus”, but commanded Azov only several months in 2014
No, Azov isn’t a military wing of the party “National corpus”. Azov was founded by Biletsky, and he has been benefiting from its image since than. There are personal links btw former and current soldiers of Azov, but that doesn’t mean Azov is guided or commanded from outside.
Read 6 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 25
🧵We should stop weapons supply to #Ukraine, cause the more weapons, the longer war and the more casualties! Risky and manipulative argument, used by loyal to #Russia experts and politicians to stop soppier of UA. Here are several counter arguments to that. 1/
Military counter argument. UA army is efficient in repelling massive offensive. RU had to leave Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and almost all Kharkiv regions. 4 weeks of attacks in Luhansk obl. didn’t bring RU control over main cities, besides of Kreminna. RU occupied there rural areas
Success in repelling RU offensive happened BEFORE massive weapons delivery to UA. Decisions on new massive supplies, including of heavy offensive weapons, started being made on the edge of March-April and continues now.
Read 8 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 18
THREAD with quotations of the story about attempts to leave Mariupol. People have to pass dozens of #Russian check-points and filtration camp. For lot of civilians it is road of death. Link to original story will be at the end of THREAD.
“The camp is not a settlement, it's just a column of cars. There were 500 cars in line in front of us, thousands more behind us. Getting out of cars, looking for food, water, going to the toilet was forbidden. Soldiers with weapons went everywhere, threatened, checked” 2/
“Here's how filter camp works: they have a checkpoint. There comes a car, where they check every pocket, trunk, every bag, clothes and what's under it. Men are undressed outside near cars. Soldiers are looking for tattoos, some labels. Looking for "nationalists"” #StopRussia
Read 16 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 16
THREAD. Day 52d since #RussiaInvadedUkraine. How does situation look on the ground? Below find overview on 1)military situation. 2)developments in temporary occupied areas 3) negotiations 4)what to expect ⬇️1/
1)Military situation. #Russia seriously changed its tactics. After failure of RU land operation in the North (#Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv) RU is concentrating its efforts in fixing its presence in the South, occupation of whole #Donbas and ensuring land corridor btw Russia and Crimea 2/
Donbas is needed for #Russia for 2 reasons. 1)Ideological: to show success before May,9. If #Putin can’t occupy even Donbas (that is not enough for RU), he is complete looser and propaganda won’t explain it. 2)Military: RU wants to weaken the most efficient part of UA army 3/
Read 17 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 8
THREAD on What’s next between #Russia and West? This is crucial Q-n, directly influencing Western reaction of RU aggression. Declaration, that RU is commenting #WarCrimes doesn’t necessarily mean readiness of the West to reshape and rebuild its relations with RF 1/
Scenario 1. West wants to preserve relations as such, continue business with RU while accusing it for aggression and authoritarianism. It means support to “peace deal” btw #Ukraine and #Russia regardless, whether it will bring strategic security either for UA, or for Europe 2/
In this case, RU will be treated as aggressor, but won’t be economically and politically punished to possible maximum. After “peace deal” or in case of protracted conflict, West will return to “rational” co-existence with RU, meaning “business” cooperation. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Maria Zolkina Profile picture
Apr 4
🧵RU war crimes, disclosed in towns around Kyiv, is a #genocide of Ukrainians. Accord. to UN “Genocide Convention” (1951), genocide is any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: 1/
(a)Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; 2/
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group. After #BuchaMassacre we have seen direct proofs of at least 4 out of 5 possible #genocide acts. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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