Thread by @ZimermanErik

#Ukraine has launched an offensive with powerful weapons in the #Kharkhov area. Perhaps it is new western artillery, perhaps it is launching missiles such as Tochka U as well. The thermal footprints are intense. There are reports that UA forces crossed at Staryi Saltiv, captured

Zarichne & are advancing northwards. These same reports indicate a second crossing near Rubizhne towards Verkhnia Pysarivka. Thermal data confirms intense shelling at Zarichne, around 28 hours ago & all at once. More recently we have similar weapons being used against #Metalivka.

This could mean that Zarichne was captured and the UA forces are moving northwards. It could also mean however that the shelling is being done from further away & from the west bank. The crossing is very wide and the standing bridge was destroyed earlier in the war.

The destroyed area however, is relatively small compared to the long bridge and so UA forces may have possibly bridged the gaps by one method or another. It is not possible to confirm at this point, but it seems to me that the crossing at #Rubizhne has failed if it was attempted.

The crossing at Staryi Saltiv, may indeed have succeeded but it remains to be confirmed if UA forces are across in a bridgehead and have captured Zarichne. The simultaneous timing of the shelling at Zarichne is cause for some suspicion. If they are indeed across, there is good

reason for the simultaneous crossing attempt at Rubizhne. If UA forces advance northwards towards Metalivka & beyond as we have been told, Russian forces could counterattack from the east & south (main road runs west straight into the bridge area from RU territory) and cut those

forces off on the east bank. As we have seen, river crossings are very complex operations, and the dammed Donets here is very wide. Forces cannot easily cross back if cut off, even by swimming. Crossing at both points, and having each bridgehead rapidly expand towards each other

would have resulted in a much more secure bridgehead. Separately, RU forces launched a counterattack around Ternova (see 1st thread image), which also can threaten the attacking UA forces simply by advancing southwards until the T2104 highway. If indeed the UA forces are across,

which I still have my doubts about, they would need to quickly push eastwards & southwards as well as northwards to secure the bridgehead and their very tenuous supply line. Ultimately, Russia could simply destroy the repaired bridge at Staryi Saltiv & completely cut off the UA

forces. The bridge location is clearly known. The crossing is too wide for traditional pontoon systems. Because of this, I am suspect that UA would keep forces on the east bank if indeed they crossed without having secured the second crossing further northwards.

On the other hand, UA command is very daring with the lives of its servicemen, so we shall see.