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May 19 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
NEW | #Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian and proxy authorities in #Mariupol are struggling to establish coherent administrative control of the city. Image
The #Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) claimed to have encircled #Ukrainian troops in #Zolote and #Hirske. Image
#Ukrainian military officials reported that some #Russian troops withdrawn from the #Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western #Donetsk Oblast. Image
#Russian forces conducted artillery attacks against #Kherson, #Zaporizhia, #Dnipropetrovsk, and #Mykolaiv Oblasts. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
May 21
NEW | #Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture #Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian troops in #Luhansk Oblast will likely move to capitalize on recent gains made in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Luhansk-Popasna arc to encircle and besiege #Severodonetsk—the final Ukrainian strongpoint in Luhansk Oblast. ImageImage
#Russian troops are likely reinforcing their grouping around #Kharkiv City to prevent further #Ukrainian advances toward the international border. Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 20
NEW | #Russian forces are likely preparing for #Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of #Popasna in order to continue their offensive on #Severodonetsk from the south. Image
#Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant as of May 20. Image
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 12
NEW | #Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the #Izyum-#Slovyansk-#Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
It is unclear if #Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective.
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive around #Kharkiv is also forcing the #Russian command to make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 11
NEW | #Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in #Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of #Kharkiv. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive north of #Kharkiv City has forced #Russian troops onto the defensive and has successfully alleviated artillery pressure on Kharkiv City.
#Russian forces continued efforts to encircle #Ukrainian positions in the #Severodonetsk-#Rubizhne-#Lysychansk area but did not make any confirmed advances.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 11
NEW | The #Ukrainian counteroffensive north of #Kharkiv City continued to successfully push Russian forces toward the #Russia-#Ukraine border on May 10. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern #Kharkiv took further ground and have possibly closed to within 10km of the #Russian border.
#Russian and #Ukrainian troops clashed on the line of contact between #Kherson and #Mykolaiv Oblasts but neither side made any confirmed advances on May 10.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 9
NEW | #Russian troops in Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline as fighting in many areas has stalled out against #Ukrainian resistance. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces continued to conduct artillery strikes and assaults against #Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant in #Mariupol. Image
#Russia may change the status of the #Donetsk and #Luhansk People’s Republics, possibly by merging them into a single “Donbas Republic” and/or by annexing them directly to Russia. Image
Read 5 tweets

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