That Annalena #Baerbock has a 74% approval rating for her handling of the #Ukraine war (it’s a war, @ZDF, not a crisis) is remarkable, esp compared to #Scholz’ dismal 50%. Image
Germans’ support for “heavy weapons like tanks” deliveries to #Ukraine continues to be high, though I would have hoped this to be north of 60%. SPD scaremongering has a price. Image
Support for Ukraine’s #EU membership, however, is surprisingly high, at 62%. The German public, IIRC, was never a big fan of enlargement. Enlargement to Ukraine would be a big deal for the EU. Image
In 2004, 59% of Germans were against #EU enlargement to the East as it would be "too early". Most feared unemployment (which was very high in Germany at the time) and more crime. Source: spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
In the same poll from 2004, 63% were against EU enlargement to #Turkey, though other polls at the time found a 50/50 split, depending on how the question was phrased.
Just in early February, a prominent German journalist called #Baerbock "this young lady" when she visited Ukraine's Eastern front as Germany's first foreign minister, and implying that she is not up for the job.
Though I am still fully in favour of calling people born in 1980 "young".

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More from @COdendahl

May 19
Our cover this week. Image
The briefing to go with that food crisis cover is of course a must-read: brilliantly written, very comprehensive. economist.com/briefing/2022/…
"Welcome to the era of climate change." Our leader on the food crisis lays out the policy options. economist.com/leaders/2022/0…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 22
Between 1941 and 1945, the US sent #weapons worth $180bn (in today’s $) to … the Soviet Union to defeat Germany: 14000 aircraft (no, that’s not a typo), 13000 tanks, and lots more. ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-a…
“If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war,” said Nikita Khrushchev. Stalin said as much. Lots of interesting context in this piece. google.com/amp/s/www.rfer…
„Without Lend-Lease, the Red Army would not have had about one-third of its ammunition, half of its #aircraft, or half of its #tanks. In addition, there would have been constant shortages of transportation and fuel.“
Read 7 tweets
Apr 13
Germany's leading econ research institutes have looked at the #embargo question. Here is GDP in case of an embargo:

2022: 1.9%
2023: -2.2%

Source: gemeinschaftsdiagnose.de/wp-content/upl…
This is the growth or decline of German GDP. In terms of deviation from a scenario without the #embargo, the GDP figures are:

2022: -0.8%
2023: - 5.3%
The also model the hit to EU-27 GDP (ie deviation from the scenario without #embargo).

2022: -0.5%
2023: -2.5%

That's because global and European energy prices would be affected.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 13
You would think, this is some kind of dark satire. But it’s the head of the SPD’s parliamentary group. I am lost for words. #Steinmeier spdfraktion.de/presse/stateme…
This is the translation via DeepL. #Steinmeier
#Mützenich, for context, is one of the main Russia appeasers in the SPD and is one of those politicians that the German debate likes to call "peace politicians" for reasons I don't claim to understand.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
The German association of coal importers says: we can replace Russian coal in a few months' time, don't worry.

Doesn't stop some Germans from making the case that Germany is too dependent on Russian coal. kohlenimporteure.de/home.html#slid…
This inner-German debate about #energy dependence on Russia shows where the political power is.

During Covid, shutting down restaurants, culture, tourism, schools: "hurts, but necessary, sorry"

Now, shutting down some energy-intensive industries: "no, too dangerous, sorry"
Germans are in favour of an oil embargo against #Russia.

"Would you support an oil embargo in Russia, even if that involved higher prices in Germany?" (yes: red, blue: no) Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28
Remarkable reporting coming out of Germany that #Scholz' pledge to increase defence spendong above 2% and set up a €100bn Bundeswehr fund was his decision alone.

Neither his party, nor the Green leadership knew it before he said it in the Bundestag. Only Lindner knew.
Easy to understand why. Neither his naively "pacifist" party, nor the defence-shy part of the Greens would have backed him fully. It was time for him to create facts and demand his government to follow him in crisis.

And they did. And they will.
The #SPD's and the Greens' "pacifist" wings are going through several stages of grief over having lost the argument. Some go through them faster than others. #Scholz politically did not have the time to wait for the end of that process.
Read 7 tweets

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