We’ve seen this before, we will see it again. Goldman Sachs: you can’t just add up all the #lithium mine level potential & make an oversupply call
The speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore
It’s why the world doesn’t rely investment banks for research any more
To make forecast calls especially for Nickel and Lithium at the moment should be regulated.
Much like our IOSCO price assessments.
There should be a min amount of expert work required to make such high profile calls that impact investors, esp the retail community.
Slapdash forecasts do a disservice to the all the work the professional publishing world conduct - including our competitors
We have spent so much time, money and effort building our Forecasts division that everything published has to go thru many hurdles & be a professional, considered opinion.
Banks (high profile) should be required to do a similar amount of work before publishing.
In response to a lot of requests: @benchmarkmin will be putting out its response to the Goldman Sachs call very soon. #lithium#nickel#cobalt
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When #EV OEMs need to become miners has been the Benchmark story of 2022. @benchmarkmin
What we mean by this is outlined in this thread:
Future EV demand is surging beyond the ability of the lithium ion battery supply chain to respond in full.
As we approach the end of the decade, the number of EVs that’s OEMs want to produce become impossible to make considering the critical battery raw material volumes in the pipeline … if all existing expansions and new mines make it, in most cases there still wont be enough
#BASF freezes new business in #Russia but commits to existing business which includes developing a ‘zero carbon’ nickel pipeline into Germany via Finland for lithium ion batteries and #EVreuters.com/article/ukrain…
European battery and EV makers need the more localised Nornickel - BASF nickel unless they want to rely more on Indonesia and China sources for the bulk of nickel needs.
And comes with its own ESG issues to deal with: tailings disposal, deforestation, carbon footprint.
More high quality battery ready nickel sources means more batteries and more electric vehicles.
It also means less ICE vehicles and less oil.
Note: Russia supplies 25% of Europe’s oil and 40% of Europe’s diesel.
Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)
Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs
Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China @benchmarkmin
Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025
Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.
Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Lithium is the key element that this entire low carbon economy is being built on. With low cost energy storage en masse, speed, scale and economics will fall apart
The passed £1 Trillion US #InfrastructureBill is set to send lithium into a super bull market next year.
The White House has identified lithium ion batteries as a core technology.
“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”