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@BULLReturns

May 18

$AEE gearing up the expertise for fast tracking production. At $75 pricing, Tiris peak annual cashflow exceeds A$150m, in ground resource will produce $3.5bn in cashflow, revised NPV on full resource exceeds A$700m. #uranium Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been

Those who continue to skate to where the puck has been will miss the real story as it unfolds:

A) resource and reserve upgrade
B) "full" NPV over A$700m
C) fast track expertise additions
D) financing avenue crystalization
E) larger production capacity 3-5mlbs

#uranium $AEE

Our focus continues to be enjoying this cap growing from lows of A$6m to A$1bn over the #uranium cycle. Implementing positive change and direction has and will be key to achieving this result. The road to production for this low cost and capex player is pretty much assured.

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@BULLReturns

May 6

Medium term investors buying the dip should act with serious caution, bear market dipping becomes a serious capital loss exercise. Understand the wider liquidity flow issues at play, avoid becoming the victim. Most inexperienced investors will struggle with the losses.

#uranium

Decoupling from contagion takes time, the period of time will be shorter assuming the #uranium spot moves above $65 while equities price in $45 or longer if the spot contages lower as well.

50-70% down from recent 7 month highs continues to be a compelling accummulation zone

Fools buy the 15 dips in a bear market and self destruct 80% of their capital.
Those of us who built up 25-45% dry powder over the last 9 months have the resources to deploy into the next cycle bottoms that will multiply our capital by 10x plus.
#uranium
#commodities
#cyclicals

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@BULLReturns

Mar 7

Are you the speculator running to #oil stocks post the 15x rise post $125 spot?

Or are you the investor running to a #countrycyclebottom post 95% plus falls?

Over a 5 year time horizon where do you think the smart money went? The deflated expectations theme or the inflated?

Stupid capital flows have commenced arrival into #Commodities, particularly #oil, consistent with a blow off top, run after the shiny object formation. This can continue for a while prior to the peak occurring, we are in scale down mode as this unfolds. +50% = sell 70%.

#oil services stocks will run this week they have further torque.

The likes of $RIG can double in a month

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@BULLReturns

Mar 7

#energy commodities rush higher out of the gate on Monday morning

#crudeoil $125 +8.2%

Actionable: we have backed our lowest #oil stock offers up 20% from Friday's closes, our highest remain at 50% above Friday's closing prices.

Assuming no resolution in the current conflict #crudeoil could hit $150 this week. We are in the blow off top phase (not peak yet).

Any positive resolution will likely see a material drop in #energy commodity prices at the margin.

This is a once in 40, maybe 50 year event unfolding, enjoy the ride, temper the greed.

We continue to be excessively long #energy, particularly #uranium (lagging at this point).

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@BULLReturns

Feb 26

Perspective of adding #Russianstock theme this week:

A) some of the cheapest valuations for large caps in our 40yr history investing, largest bank traded well below 1x PE, dividend yields hit 40% levels
B) throw the baby out with the bath water mentality generally is a buy

1/3

C) understanding in max risk situations, with plentiful unknowns, what is priced in and what is not.
D) ability to look through the clouds and assess the picture 2-3 years out.
E) realizing suspensions, may occur, locking ones investment up for a few years (this is ok for us)
2/3

F) dividends maybe cut for sanction countries
G) risks moderate over time and rerating occurs (sometimes quickly)
H) asymmetric trade on Thursday near lows was 3-4x upside and 30-50% downside
I) theme weighting max 20%, we managed to deploy 5%, 25% of max position

3/3

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@BULLReturns

Feb 6

Predictability of #commodity cycles:

Undersupply stimulates rising prices as inventories are depleted

Oversupply stimulates falling prices as inventories build

Demand growth depleted inventories and stimulates rising prices

Demand reduction builds inventories and prices fall

Great #commodity investors focus on returns, overweight commodities near cycle bottoms (recently that was 2nd and 3rd quarter 2020), now in 1st half 2022 there are may signs (use cycle prices and sector margins as a guide) of a maturing cycle (65%+ cash margins above cost curves)

Maturing = 4th quartile of the cycle

#oil recently moved into that club with the likes of #coal, #lithium and several other commodities.

What does this mean? Elevated risks vs returns, death of asymmetric trades, scaling down positions, harvesting early entry 5-15x gains.

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