Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #crudeoil

Most recents (24)

Non-subsidized LPG Cylinder Price🫕

Year Price
2013 Rs 1031
2014 Rs 1080
2015 Rs 610
2016 Rs 514
2017 Rs 738
2018 Rs 689
2019 Rs 702
2020 Rs 806
2021 Rs 819
2022 Rs 1053

But, how is the price calculated?

Let's find out⤵️
LPG pricing in India is done on the basis of a formula: Import Parity Price (IPP)

The IPP is determined based on gas prices in the international market, as a major portion of India's consumption is satisfied through imports.

But, how is IPP calculated? 🤔

#lpgpricehike
IPP is calculated as per Saudi Aramco’s LPG price, which is the world’s largest producer.

The price includes costs like:
- Free on board (FOB) price,
- Ocean freight,
- Custom duties,
- Port charges and Insurance cost

#lpgcylinder
Read 6 tweets
Macro Analysis of FX. Putting my erstwhile FX trader hat on to analyze what is happening with global markets.

I see the #CrudeOil move, #EURUSD move as a flight to safety move into USD.

I'm trying to explain the causation of flow in below thread 🧵

1/n
What all is losing ground against #USD?
#CrudeOil 🔻8.32%
#EURUSD 🔻1.77%
#GBPUSD 🔻1.49%
#Gold 🔻2.1%
#BTC 🔻2.7%

All these are being sold against USD. The money doesn't leave the system. So where does it go?

In risk-off environment it goes to safe havens such as:
2/n
#USD, #CHF, #JPY, Long-Dated US bonds (30Y) & #GOLD.

While some G10 FX pairs have lost upwards of 1.5%, both safe-haven currencies of JPY(🔻0.11%) and CHF (🔻0.89%) are seen relatively stable when compared to other G10.

US30Y Yields are down (bonds are up) by🔻4%.
3/n
Read 7 tweets
We are LIVE tweeting the In conversation session with @nitin_gadkari and @ShereenBhan

Stay tuned for updates!

#Raisina2022 #RaisinaDialogue #TerraNova
Watch it LIVE here:

#Raisina2022 @nitin_gadkari
.@nitin_gadkari: #Crudeoil import presents an economic and #environmental challenge for #India. India’s present efforts at advancing #greentechnologies will provide us with a way out of this unsustainable dependence.

#Raisina2022
Read 11 tweets
WTI is down ~30% the past week, but the supply / demand thesis remains intact:

- Drawing from inventories every week
- OPEC continues to miss output targets
- Global demand rising
- Rig count lagging
- Multiple risks to supply still on the table

#OOTT #COM #EFT #CrudeOil #WTI
Global supply is still suppressed from 2019’s numbers. Image
Global demand has rebounded and isn’t going anywhere but higher. Image
Read 3 tweets
#EIA #oil data: #crude -1.9 mln bbls; at 411.6 mln; -13% v 5-yr avg for period
#gasoline -1.4 mln bbls; +1% v 5-yr avg
#distillate -5.2 mln bbls; -18% v 5-yr avg
#propane -1.6 bbls; -21% v 5-yr avg
Total commercial stocks -8.1 mln bbls
#OOTT #OPEC #diesel #shipping #energy
#EIA #oil #data: U.S. #crude oil #refinery inputs averaged 15.4 mln bpd week to March 4, 2022, -21,000 bpd vs previous week; #refineries operated at 89.3% capacity; #gasoline output rose to 9.6 mln bpd, #distillate output fell to 4.6 mln bpd.
#OOTT #diesel #energy #refining
#EIA: #oil data: U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 mln bpd last week, +0.6 million bpd vs previous week; last 4 weeks #crude oil imports averaged 6.2 mln bpd, +10.1% vs year-ago period
#OOTT #OPEC #diesel #shipping #inventory #energy #data #exports #crudeoil #tankers #imports
Read 4 tweets
Quick thread on 2022, Ukraine and India
Q: Why does it feel like everything's falling apart since Ukraine ?
A: Things were already pretty bruised. Ukraine has ripped the band-aid off 1/n

Link to my story : thewire.in/economy/the-uk…
#UkraineRussianWar #India @thewire_in
Inflation is now a full-blown problem. Estimates indicate that EVEN if the central government were to cut fuel taxes average CPI inflation for FY’23 could shoot past the RBI’s plimsol line of 6.0%. #inflation #Crude #India #UkraineRussianWar
Growth is now also in question. ICRA sees “large downside risks” to its 8% GDP target. Nomura says there’s downside risks to their GDP growth outlook (7% for 2022), HDFC’s GDP growth forecast might see a further downward revision to 7.3-7.5%.
#India #CrudeOil #Growth #Ukraine️
Read 6 tweets
#energy commodities rush higher out of the gate on Monday morning

#crudeoil $125 +8.2%
Actionable: we have backed our lowest #oil stock offers up 20% from Friday's closes, our highest remain at 50% above Friday's closing prices.

Assuming no resolution in the current conflict #crudeoil could hit $150 this week. We are in the blow off top phase (not peak yet).
Any positive resolution will likely see a material drop in #energy commodity prices at the margin.

This is a once in 40, maybe 50 year event unfolding, enjoy the ride, temper the greed.

We continue to be excessively long #energy, particularly #uranium (lagging at this point).
Read 4 tweets
A thread on my piece on the RBI. Full story link here:
But the central ( pun unintended) question here is, what should the Reserve Bank be doing in this environment, and is it doing what it should/could ? 1/n
#inflation #RBI #UkraineRussianWar #CrudeOil
scroll.in/article/101869…
Last RBI meeting saw inflation being termed as not a big worry and that action will be taken when necessary. Let’s examine what has happened with some of the elements that add to the inflation/ cost pressures of a household 2/n
#inflation #RBI #UkraineRussianWar #CrudeOil
Nomura says we've had high inflation for 2 years already. Retail fuel prices are on freeze since Nov'21 thanks to state elections. A recalibration means upping petrol/diesel prices by at least 10%, 30% plus price hike for LPG. 3/n
#inflation #RBI #UkraineRussianWar #CrudeOil
Read 8 tweets
🛢️THREAD PETROLEO

Mercados de #Petroleo atingem vários recordes à medida que sanções da #Russia interrompem fluxos comerciais

#crudeoil +5,53% @ 109.11/barril ⤵️
Os benchmarks de petróleo estão atingindo preços recordes em vários mercados importantes, à medida que as consequências de severas sanções contra a principal exportadora Rússia semeia confusão e pânico entre os traders globais de petróleo cru, empresas de transporte e importadore
O spread de preço do petróleo Brent entregue entre agora e em 12 meses é de US$ 21,54 o barril, o mais alto já registrado, enquanto o prêmio do Brent para Dubai - o spread de preço entre light e sour grades - atingiu uma alta histórica de US$ 13,05 um barril na quarta-feira⤵️
Read 10 tweets
🧵The govt of #Pakistan has found a specific #fiscal space of 250 Bln, which is being channelised to provide relief in #energy prices. Here is the break down

#PMIKaddressToNation
2) 1.5 billion litre HSD/#Petrol consumed per day. Rs 10 per litre relief means Ra 15 billion per month.

#PMIKaddressToNation
3) Decrease in #electricity prices @RS 5/unit (slab 2-5; all commercial) = monthly impact 17.5 billion

Four months subsidy on #petrol #diesel #electricity = Rs 130 Bln

#PMIKaddressToNation
Read 5 tweets
Few industries that may get affected due to an increase in OIL prices🛢️

• Cement
• Airlines
• Paint manufacturers
• FMCG
• Auto

But ‘How’🤔

Let's find out in this thread🧵

#RussiaUkraineWar #CrudeOil
India relies on other countries for more than 80% of its crude oil requirements🤯

As oil prices breached $100/ barrel for the first time since 2014, it is perhaps India’s biggest macroeconomic challenge.

#stockmarketcrash #Inflation
Effect on some sectors and why⤵️

• Cement - Because power and fuel expenses account for 25-30% of the sector's total operating cost.

• Airline - Because aviation turbine fuel accounts for a big share of its operating cost.

• Paint - Because oil is a major raw material.
Read 9 tweets
#StocksToBuy #StockMarketindia
#RussiaUkraine

As we all Know the World Markets 💵🗺have been Grappled by the Russia 🇷🇺Ukraine🇺🇦 War & have fallen sharply over the last few days 📉

However the War would not have a direct Impact on many of the Indian Co’s 🏭🌾

1/n
However we must not that Indian Co’s🇮🇳would not be impacted in any direct manner except for the Fact that Fuel 🛢 & logistics costs would rise ultimately impacting the bottomlines.The prices of Oil & Gas along with a few commodities such as Alum are expected to rise

#CrudeOil
AEGISCHEM

Aegis Trades at a p/e of 21 times & was beaten down previously due to low volume growth & the Death of the Previous promoter. Going fwd the triggers are LPG recovering & higher contributions of high margin business as well as the Mega merger with Vopak.

3/n Image
Read 13 tweets
MISSING OIL 🛢
ARAB NEWS
MIKE ROTHMAN
FEB 14, 2022

The Global Oil Balance is Much Tighter Than is Believed

🧵👇1/x

#oilprices #CrudeOil #energycrisis #opec #ESG #GreenEnergy #fintwit #eft #oott #energy #oilandgas #SaudiArabia #RussiaUkraine #RussiaCrisis #ElectricVehicles
Last week’s events will be remembered for many reasons but for us, the major market mover was the International Energy Agency’s admission that global oil demand is wickedly higher than what the agency was willing to admit previously…

2/x
Why did it take so long for the agency to reconcile its data series? It is a mystery. You might be thinking that this is some sort of academic debate but it is not.

In our previous columns, we have written about the topic of “missing oil”…

3/x
Read 17 tweets
A thread on my piece around fuel price hikes. Come 10th March, sharp fuel price hikes are coming. How sharp ? $1 increase in Crude leads to a 50 – 60 paisa/ litre increase in retail fuel prices. Total increase could be as high as Rs 10/ litre. 1/7
scroll.in/article/101748…
Govt & Oil Companies say they're protecting consumers. Guess what ? April '20 -Crude fell as low as $9.12/ barrel. What did Oil firms do ? Stopped price revisions for *82 days*. In May 21, we saw 16 fuel price hikes. Consumers were hit by no benefit & then record high prices 2/7
Any relief ? Yes. In November last year, a sizeable Rs 5/ltr cut in excise duty on petrol and a Rs 10/ltr cut in excise duty on diesel. But fuel earnings for the Govt have been frankly, great - A robust ₹ 4 lakh crores this year and ₹3.35 lakh crores project next year. 3/ 7
Read 7 tweets
Brent Crude crosses $90 per Barrel Mark for the first time since October 2014!

Here’s a thread below to know why🧵🧵🧵👇🏻

#CrudeOil #economy #investing
(1/7)

• Robust fundamentals have reversed last year’s oil price melt-down, with the market remaining in a large supply deficit.

• Non-OPEC+ production outside of US/Canada shrank by 0.2 Million barrel per Day YOY in 2021 (a group accounting for 25% of global supply)
(2/7)

• Increased supply disruptions and OPEC+ shortfalls (especially Russia), with Brazil and Norway production additions also disappointing

• Global Crude Inventory is 200 million barrel below Pre-Covid Levels
Read 8 tweets
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💥Get a 20% discount on all using code WEB20💥

Keep Exploring the thread(🧵)...
A Masterclass on Crude Oil by Souradeep Dey (@Trader_souradep): sedg.in/mh6bfqgc

✅Proiftable, proven #CrudeOil strategies

✅Trade Inventory data released by EIA & API

✅Supply & Demand Dynamics of Crude Oil

✅In-depth #TechnicalAnalysis
Options Strategies for Bearish & Bullish Markets by Deepak Kumar: sedg.in/5z1n6pl2

✅Basics of #Options in Hindi

✅Trading Options based on the Market

✅Selection of the right strategy of #optionstrading based on your approach
Read 8 tweets
⚡️Energia: O Rally Continua

As #commodities energéticas estavam sob cerco durante o auge do impacto da pandemia, em todos os mercados. Em abril de 2020, o #carvão Rotterdam caiu para uma baixa de $38,45/t. O #crudeoil foi ainda pior, com o contrato spot operando a (-)$40,2...
Os futuros do #brent caíram para o valor mais baixo desde século, a $ 16,00 por barril. Enquanto isso, o #NaturalGas despencou para ao menor nível em 25 anos, a $1,44 MMbtu. Os combustíveis fósseis foram vítimas do desaparecimento da demanda, à medida que o vírus se espalhava..
A cura para os preços baixos das #Commodities são sempre os preços baixos, à medida que os produtores reduzem a produção, os estoques diminuem e os preços aumentam. Uma mudança dramática na política de energia dos EUA em 2021, sob a gestão Biden, alimentou a ascensão dos...
Read 7 tweets
#RetailInflation in May 2021 is 6.3%,Vs 4.23% in April

Core Inflation is 6.6%,Vs 5.4%
Food Inflation is 5.01% Vs 1.96%

Despite uptick,@narendramodi
govt has done very well to rein in #Inflation

Global Food Index in May is up 39.7% YoY,due to drought in many parts of the globe
#GlobalFoodIndex is measured by
#FAO Food Price Index,#FFPI,which is a measure of monthly changes in international prices of a basket of #food commodities;It consists of average of five commodity group price indices,weighted by average export shares of each group over 2014-2016
Why have #Food prices surged globally?

Argentina saw a big drought

Ukraine&Russia also suffered from drought&inclement weather

Indonesia&Malaysia,biggest producers of #PalmOil,have curbed exports,as govts in these countries have made blending of Palm Oil,with fuel,mandatory
Read 10 tweets
#RBI leaves rates unchanged as it lowers #GDP growth projection to 9.5%, targets 5.1% inflation

#RBIPolicy #ShaktikantaDas

businessinsider.in/finance/news/g…

By @pabsgill Image
@pabsgill Unlike the first wave where the economy came to standstill under a national wide lockdown, the impact on economic activity is expected to be relatively contained in the #SecondWave with restrictions on mobility being regionalised and nuanced: Shaktikanta Das.

#RBI #RBIPolicy
@pabsgill “The favourable base effects that brought about the moderation in headline inflation by 1.2% in April may persist through the first half of the year conditioned by progress in #Monsoon and effective supply side interventions by the government.” said RBI governor, Shaktikanta Das.
Read 4 tweets
Re: Crude Oil/Macro-This Butterfly Has Big Wings. In this thread, I explain my theory on why commodity price inflation in what I call “capex/opex commodities” (vs. “store-of-value” commodities) is an ominous harbinger for risk assets. (Cont’d) #Oil #CrudeOil #inflation
“Capex commodities” include lumber and industrial metals that are required for building things. “Opex commodities” like food and especially energy/oil (the biggest cap-weighted commodity by far) are consumed on an ongoing basis just for human survival.
“Store-of-value” commodities like precious metals and arguably BTC have spotty correlations with real inflation. Here is a good article on precious metals vs. inflation: investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/01/2….
Read 32 tweets
Indian coast Guard ship #Shaurya is still fighting the fire aboard the Merchant Vessel MT Diamond, 35 nautical miles off the coast of #SriLanka . 3 tugs are also spraying the the merchant ship which is ablaze with foam&water.
@IndiaCoastGuard Image
MT Diamond is carrying 3 lakh tonnes of #CrudeOil and Sri Lankan authorities had sought Indian Assistance because Oil spill is very likely.
#SriLanka
@IndiaCoastGuard Image
Fire on #MTDiamond has been successfully extinguished by @IndiaCoastGuard
Read 3 tweets
So biggest casualty of #Fed warning on #US #economy y'day, was #Gold,which dropped 3% to $1951.90 an ounce,within minutes of #FedMinutes

Silver too fell below $28

Rout was not limited to precious metals--#Nasdaq sold off despite #Apple hitting $2 trillion market cap

#Covid_19
#CrudeOil whipsawed in tight range with #WTI at $42.83

#Fed's take on economic downturn was nothing new&yet markets collapsed

Only asset which saw aggressive buying was US #Tbills,with 10 yr #bond #yield@ 0.665% Vs previous close of 0.685%

#Dollar had its best day in 2 months
So what does y'day's frenzied buying in #bonds indicate?Is the #RiskOn trade over?

Well,not quite--With $9 trillion of excess global #liquidity sloshing around due to coordinated Central Bank rate cuts,since #Covid_19, equities will move up,albeit with severe bouts of volatility
Read 7 tweets
#WelspunCorp- Soon out of the Woods

#CMP - 60
#MarketCap - 1,565 cr
#Industry - Pipes & Plates
Biggest #COVID19 casualty

Post Jan2020, the #crudeoil prices collapsed 60-70%. The company has major dependence on global oil & gas players for its order book.
However, we feel Welspun Corp’s strong cash & investment position in the #balancesheet and very low #longtermdebt will help the company withstand the current turmoil and bounce back stronger.
Read 25 tweets
A thread on the recent developments in the world of #CrudeOil and what are the major producers and consumers doing. Long thread.

The WTI (Texas) oil went into -ve territory. I know many of you reading this went bat crazy about it, even if you did not have anything to do with it. Image
As the prices went -ve, many started saying that GoI should stock its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs).
Some details about our SPRs-
We currently have 3 sites at
Vizag,
Mangalore
and Padur
These sites currently have 37 million barrel of Crude Oil. Image
SPRs of 🇮🇳 back in June 2018 had commenced work for 2nd phase of SPR at Chandikhol and Padur. The 3rd Phase will be at Bikaner and Rajkot.

After commissioning of the 3rd phase (also filling up the caverns) we would enable a 30 days crude reserve, exclusively by the govt
Read 14 tweets

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