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Jun 6 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
#Finland has - in my opinion correctly from both a moral point of view as well as according to our own security interests - declared that we would not join #NATO before #Sweden in case #Turkey would let us in easier/faster. #turpo=#säkpol #FISE 1/3 keski-uusimaa.fi/uutissuomalain…
*However*, I hope it has been made absolutely clear to the Swedish government that it can't at this time look like they are even contemplating concessions to #Kakabaveh, and in case they do, we might have to backtrack on the promise. 2/3 svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
We might not like it, but that's where we are currently with regards to national security. Optics matter, and while we obviously will not give in to the more outrageous Turkish demands - in particular extradition claims which have already been tried - this isn't one of those. 3/3
FFS, it was exactly this they were supposed *not* to do. expressen.se/nyheter/nytt-m…
Seriously, someone call Stockholm. We need an official denial by the government ASAP... 😬
Okay, you know what, perhaps we just have to distance ourselves more clearly and emphasize that while we applied for #NATO at the same time, we really are not in this together but all countries make their own foreign policy choices. #turpo=#säkpol #FISE
It's a bummer that it's come to this, Sweden is our closest partner and we have extremely close defence cooperation. However, under current circumstances I really can't see a way forward together (though with caveat that obviously I am not privy to the diplomatic games going on).
As a Finn, I am constantly amazed at how differently national security is treated in Finland and Sweden, even among top politicians and political analysts. I would have hoped that this spring had lead to some kind of awakening in Sweden, but I was wrong.
In many ways I believe that benefit us both. At the same time, the low importance placed on the #NATO-application by Sweden (or alternatively the complete failure to read the diplomatic situation) makes me seriously doubt if we can be that going forward?
But do read the original piece of that thread, it's a good primer!

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More from @CorporalFrisk

Corporal Frisk Profile picture
May 3
Au contraire, as Finland has built the armed forces around conscripts and reservists, the politicians need to be honest with the fact that if we see a large war where #NATO rush to defend a member, we don't have a second defence force for the defence of others. #turpo=#säkpol
Of course, for situations where Finland's contribution is limited in size and scope, the idea argued by @charlyjsp of having a dedicated high-readiness battalion-sized unit of volunteer reservists on standby is a nice fit, and that answers all situations #NATO has faced so far.
But we still need to be clear that we are preparing for the worst, and in those cases there should be no hesitation among the other members whether Finland will show up or not, just as we expect the full force of the other members to assist our defence if need be.
Read 8 tweets
Corporal Frisk Profile picture
Apr 3
With so much happening in #Ukraine, I decided to take on three shorter topics in a blog post, namely the deep #helicopter strike on #Belgorod, whether #Russia can replace their losses, and what to do with the Ukrainian requests for more advanced weaponry. corporalfrisk.com/2022/04/03/a-u…
I could also shortly comment on the mass killings in #Bucha. This should not be a surprise for anyone by now, it isn't an accident, but it is how the Russian Army and the Soviet before that has operated consistently.
Finland has first-hand experience of it as well, even if we got away easier than many other Eastern European countries. blog.vantagepointnorth.net/2019/12/forgot…
Read 9 tweets
Corporal Frisk Profile picture
Mar 29
So to add some measure of scale to the Russian tank losses, let's look at this table of operational Russian tanks.
...which is found in this paper: iai.it/en/pubblicazio… . Yes, there's a bunch of caveats about it being a few years old and any estimate is bound to have some uncertainty, but if we assume it gives the correct order of magnitude...
Russia has so far, only counting confirmed losses, lost 9.2 % of their T-72B3 versions, 18.4 % of their T-80-fleet, and 4.8 % of their T-90! That's huge! Even if the number of operational tanks are off by 10-30 % that's staggering losses. One in ten modern T-72, one in five T-80!
Read 5 tweets
Corporal Frisk Profile picture
Mar 16
Okay, so this is the primer you need...
...to make sense of this statement.
The interesting things and missing link is the S-300V / SA-12. As @thewarzonewire notes there are *no* NATO-countries operating the system. The only operator making any kind of sense I would argue is Egypt, and that's a long shot. #S300V en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_mis…
Read 5 tweets
Corporal Frisk Profile picture
Mar 3
Pic of yesterday's Russian incursion into Swedish air space close to #Gotland where Finnish and Swedish MoD were meeting at time to inspect an exercise. Good news is they aren't flying in tactical formation, but rather bunched up in a more peaceful formation. #FISE #turpo=#säkpol
Bad news is that that is still two Su-24 strike aircraft escorted by two Su-27 fighters knowingly violating the airspace of a sovereign state with the aim of pressuring them to change their foreign policy.

I suggest that we do not give in to international bullying.
*Major* plot twist to the story about Russian aircraft violating Swedish airspace a few weeks back. Reports are out that the two Su-24 carried nuclear weapons. #Su24 #NuclearThreat #Russia tv4.se/artikel/6cNV5s…
Read 11 tweets
Corporal Frisk Profile picture
Dec 10, 2021
#BREAKING: F-35A winner of #HXhanke program to replace Finnish F/A-18C/D Hornets. #turpo=#säkpol #F35
64 aircraft, weaponry suitable for Finnish scenario, all gate checks passed, budget within framework (including annual costs below set limit of 254 MEUR).
Front fuselage assembly in Finland for Finnish and global fleet.
Read 21 tweets

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