Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/17/22

1/7

Has #inflation peaked?

June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%

And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed

Let’s dig into more 🧮!

2a/7

#Commodities

Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold

2b/7

Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum

$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)

Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)

2c/7

As a group, grains flipped 🐻 in late June
🐒🔨’d this week

$CORN -3.15% (w) -22.95% (T)
$WHEAT -12.9% (w) -29.65% (T)
$SOYB -3.9% (w) -19.4% (T)
$SUGAR +1.05% (w) -4.3% (T)

Chart: $DBA -3.6% (w) -12.95% (T)

2d/7

Hydrocarbons flipped definitely 🐻 this week

$WTIC -6.85% (w) -8.75% (T)
$BRENT -5.6% (w) -8.95% (T)
$GASO -11.5% (w) -9.1% (T)
$NATGAS +16.25% (w) 3.9% (T) ⬅️

Chart: $GASO - welcome relief for consumers who spent +35% y/y at the ⛽️ per JPM conference call

2e/7

$NATGAS on 🔥 this week
(prolly ‘cause HE shorted UNG 😆)

Chart: $NATGAS +1.1% over (t) duration where (t) = trade = 1 month price momo

3a/7

In USTs, yields ↗️ on short-end with long end ↘️

10/2s further flattened to -20.2 BPS

3-month bill 🔺 to 2.386% + 53.6 BPS in a week

MOVE 129.85 🛗 but -15.4 BPS on the week

Chart: 10/2s taking out the August ’19 lows 😱

3b/7

Bonds ETFs ↗️ on recession certainty
It’s time…

$TLT +3.25% (w) -3.8% (T)
$BNDD +2.65% (w) -3.1% (T)
$LQD +1.35% (w) -3.1% (T)
$IEF +1.25% (w) -0.65% (T)
$TIP +1.0% (w) -5.4% (T)
$HYG +0.8% (w) -5.9% (T)

Chart: $IEF +2.55% (t) and neutral trend

4/7

The $USD 💪 particularly vs. 💴 & 💷

$UUP +1.02% (w) +7.57% (T)
$FXY -1.75% (w) -9.22% (T)
$FXB -1.36% (w) -9.32% (T)
$FXE -0.96% (w) -7.06% (T)
$FXA -0.9% (w) -8.58% (T)
$FXC -0.53% (w) -3.2% (T)
$FXF -0.1% (w) -3.78% (T)

Chart: $FXE -4.0% over (t) duration 💶

5a/7

Despite a sharp rally ↗️ on Friday, 🇺🇸 indices were down on the week

$SPX -0.95% (w) -12.05% (T)
$IWM -1.42% (w) -13.0% (T)
$COMPQ -1.55% (w) -14.2% (T)

$VIX 24.23 into OPEX with VIXperation on 7/20

Chart: $COMPQ -26.8% YTD but +6.05% over (t) duration

5b/7

In US sectors, only staples eked out a gain

$XLP +0.05% (w) -7.5% (T)
$XLU -0.1% (w) -8.3% (T)
$XLK -0.35% (w) -9.7% (T)
$XLV -0.4% (w) -6.1% (T)

Chart: $XLV +8.6% over (t) duration

6/7

China with weak GDP of +0.4% y/y and both SSEC and HSI ↘️ hard

$HSI -6.55% (w) -5.65% (T)
$SSEC -3.8% (w) -0.5% (T)
$DAX -1.15% (w) -9.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.85% (w) -13.55% (T)
$CAC +0.05% (w) -8.4% (T)
$NIKK +1.0% (w) -1.1% (T) ⬅️

Chart: $EEM 🐒🔨’d -3.65% (w) -12.65% (T)

7/7

After 2 quarters of #Quad3 #stagflation, this #oldwallwarrior is calling for #Quad4 with growth ↘️ and inflation 🔝

Equities are usually last to get the 📋 🩳
Adding to $TLT, $IEF, $MUB, $BNDD
👁 on XLV XHB

Have a super profitable 💰 week!