Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jul 19 18 tweets 6 min read
We often discuss the all important supply lines, & in the case of #Russia, the railways. RU is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops (In NATO, only Italy has a small regiment w 2 railway engineer companies). Given Russia's vast
geography, heavy use of artillery, especially rocket artillery (very supply intensive), limited number of military trucks, and relatively sparse road system the army depends on the railways. From their Imperial Tsarist beginnings, through the Soviet era & up until today, the
Railway Troops have undergone many changes & been part of various ministries. Their modern iteration begins in 1995 when they are established as an independent Federal Service & strengthened. By 1999 they include 4 railway corps, with 28 railway brigades (+ other elements).
In 2004, President Putin and then Defense Minister Ivanov re-organize the troops and place them firmly under the Ministry of Defense. There has been several modernization efforts of the troops since then. The US now estimates RU has 10 brigades of Railway Troops assigned to the
various (5) Military Districts, comprising about 29,000 troops. While disbanding the force has been considered, their important part in all recent wars (Chechnya, Georgia, and since 2014, Ukraine) has put a stop to that. Russia also utilized the troops to build rail segments that
bypass Ukraine (private contractors involved as well). Reportedly, they finished a modern 137 (or 122 km) track in 2017 ahead of schedule. Officially the reason was to avoid a 37 km segment that goes through Ukraine (Lugansk). However, much more of it is too close the border,
within artillery range and most importantly so close as to not be useful in a build up for an incursion into Ukraine. This may have been a big part of the reason for constructing the $900 million USD Zhuravka - Millerevo bypass line. The Railway brigades field another surprising
asset, old fashioned armored trains. The US estimates that Russia fields four of these sensational war machines (or military relics depending on perspective), & though some were seen in Chechnya and Georgia, the US believed they were out of service if not dismantled by 2010.
In 2016, Defense Minister Shoigu ordered them back into service, and we have seen two or three of them operate in Ukraine during the current war. Here we see a recently released video of the "Volga" and the Railway Troops bridging capabilities. The armored trains are not meant
for front-line combat but rather, to escort supply trains, repair track & bridges, perform reconnaissance & route patrol, and carry troops & supplies close to the front. They can be configured to carry varying equipment, including tanks and BMPs that can be deployed to fight when
needed. They also carry ZU-23 twin 153mm cannons for anti-aircraft & direct fire roles. The troops are ready to deploy and engage an enemy when necessary. Here we see another armored train, the "Yenisei" operating in Ukraine. With Russia's recent gains across the Siverskyi Donets
river including Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Vrubivka and other important rail hubs (such as Lyman on the north bank), RU forces can greatly ease their logistical burden by bringing up the railheads. This however first entails work by the Railway Troops to repair the railways &
bridges either intentionally blown by retreating UA forces or damaged in the course of battle. This work includes demining, repair & clearing of rubble & obstacles. A newly released video shows us some of this work by the Railway Troops at recently captured Lysychansk. Geolocated
Fixing this railway bridge (along with all other repairs needed across the line) would link the Donetsk rail system which connects eastwards towards Russia & Rostov-on-Don, and the northern system which is supplying the Izium front, through the large rail hub at Kupiansk & north
towards Russia through Vovchansk & the main regional center of Belgorod. Linking these 2 systems together, which themselves are now linked by rail to Crimea, including lines towards the ports of Mariupol & Berdiansk (& further west towards Kherson, that westernmost front),
will undoubtedly increase the RU logistics significantly. Many areas along the front will now be close to potential railheads from where RU can project combat strength. The cities in Russia's current sights, Siversk & Bakhmut, only will add to the usefulness of this network as
they are themselves regional road & rail hubs. Russia will be in the new situation of having significant rail logistics south and west of the Siverskyi Donets river & the forest belt, which UA effectively used to delay its advance for so long. In order for RU to effectively
use these newly captured assets for further offensives and advance, the unique and storied #Russian Railway Troops will be instrumental, and have much work ahead of them.

#UkraineWar #Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar

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More from @ZimermanErik

Jul 20
Yesterday #Russian sources reported that elements of the #Ukrainian "Kraken" unit infiltrated through the forest belt and attempted an attack on Bilohorivka. This was stopped and some prisoners were taken. Geolocated below. While it is possible that the attack came through the
northern forest belt (meaning UA forces crossed the Donets river twice), and this would be quite a daring mission, it is also possible that these were units that were left in fortified positions in the hilly wooded areas south of Hryrhorivka when the RU forces advanced due west ImageImageImage
and attacked took the village (leaving the UA troops in the southern wooded areas). These units could have then advance on Bilohorivka (diagonally) attempting to cut off any remaining troops in Hryhorivka. It is also possible that they simply advanced east from Serebrianka and
Read 25 tweets
Jul 18
We had discussed how the parties for the most part had stayed away from targeting dams & the key bridges across them at the Dnieper, though that this could change. Ukraine less so than Russia & lately it has risked major (or catastrophic) flooding on its citizens. Today UA struck
the #Kakhovka Hydroelectric power plant at the Dnieper, in the #Kherson region. These dams and bridges were not being targeted because of several reasons. For #Ukraine, this means the bridges in Kherson as they are the only ones across the major river in Russian hands. Damaging
or destroying the dams risks major flooding in the region including significant loss of life among the civilian population (Ukrainian citizens which UA proports to care about), along with very large property & economic damage. If UA intends to regain sovereignty over the area,
Read 13 tweets
Jul 11
Speaking of these forests and how #Ukraine is being able to use them for defense, note this newly released video. Geolocated below. The small lake seen at the bottom of the frame is at Zolotarivka, now in #Russian hands. We last saw the targeted forest show thermal activity on
July 7th (here we see the lake Geolocated and the forest being hit in red). By then the #Russians had long captured the town as well as neighboring Bilohorivka and the large oil refinery south of the junction. Still as they tried to advance west this small forest patch remained
fortified and an obstacle. Here we see the situation on the 7th, even as RU forces shelled the plateau around around Siversk further west, they still had to contend with this forest and its high ground (200 meters & peak at 226). Also note the strikes at Serebrianka. Momentum
Read 5 tweets
Jul 11
I have often been showing some of the pre-war fortifications from the air in satellite images. Specifically also been talking about the good use of forests by UA forces in very stubborn defense. Near Lyman, by the village of Szczurowe and the (beautiful) blue lakes, we can take a
closer look of some of these forest defenses and fortification networks. These have been fully captured by Russia as they secured their control from #Lyman, a key railway hub, towards the Siverskyi donets river. From here they have moved in one direction across to Pryshyb
& Sydorove (which threatened the defense lines against the Izium front around Dolyna / Krasnopilya from the rear) and in the other towards Raihorodok against Slovyansk from the NE.
Read 15 tweets
Jul 11
Continuing the operational update. Siversk will be attacked and is difficult to defend. Bakhmut on the other hand is easier to defend for several reasons.

#Bakhmut is a a larger more sprawling city. It includes rough terrain around it and within it better suited for defense.
It has large sections of dense commercial, residential and industrial areas which we have seen UA forces effectively use for defense. Bakhmut, unlike Siversk is not surrounded by high ground but is partially on high ground itself. While Siversk has one main road & rail as an
open supply route, Bakhmut's main roads shoot out in all directions. With significantly sized towns adjacent to the north and west, it is significantly much more difficult to surround. While RU forces, reportedly including PMC Wagner units have already cut off two main roads and
Read 25 tweets
Jul 11
Time to address "what next", at least at the short to mid term operation level. Also hope to address the wider war in a following post. The #Lysychansk #Severodonetsk salient was closed. The cities firmly in #Russian hands. We were not surprised by these events however much those
only following (& believing) mainstream media may have been. However, the UA forces, having learned from previous mistakes mostly were able to withdraw and avoid a massive surrender within the cauldron. Much in heavy weapons & equipment was left behind, as were troops themselves
but overall the bulk of UA's manpower in the northern part of the salient at least, escaped encirclement. The UA smartly did not withdraw merely to a #Siversk #Bakhmut line, which cannot be defended, but attempted to establish a Bakhmut - Soledar - Berestove - Siversk line.
Read 25 tweets

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