Thread by @ZimermanErik

This speculative movement, far from the reported fronts seems to finally be in good swing. First discussed it in the quoted tweet (itself quoting a thread about the elusive & unreported forest battles), the last few day of VIIRS data show us a serious #Russian advance to secure

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1535068295753506817

the western forest flank of the #Izium supply line. It is done not as an advance westward from the city, but as a pincer movement from the north & south to advance along the high ground & surround any UA forces still operating within the forest belt. More recently we discussed

these #Ukrainian operations in the forest belt including a river crossing (here

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1542735581989437443

). Also noted that in other threads (such as this one

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1542007500936978433

) that UA would be wise to invest more resources in holding this forest & continuing operations from

it rather than some of its favored and well publicized efforts (ie Kherson and Kharkhov). Additionally, in the operational update to what would follow the capture of the Lysychank salient (

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1546326586152075265

), stressed how important this forest belt was to secure the supply

lines though Izium and to attempt any larger encirclements around the Slovyansk - Kramatorsk line, including the capture of Barvinkove, a key road and rail hub for the northern half of the front (Pokrovsk in the south).

Finally, for those interested, note this thread regarding the increasing use of forest defenses by Ukrainian forces, and the recent gradual advance past those forests by Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1546483760673263619

With more background than you could wish for, let us take a look at

recent events. From July 18 to 19th, RU strikes began preparing the groundwork in the north and south. The next day, we had large strikes against Husarivka (important road junction), towards Chepil, & in the south from Velyka Komyshuvakha NW towards Petrivske.

This is an attempt to clear the forest area, cross the small Bereka river & perhaps bypass Hrushuvakha which is strongly defended by UA & is the key road junction in the south. Indeed by the 20-21st, the intense strikes had moved on to Petrivske itself, on low & high ground.

The town offers a way to access the high ground that flanks the entire western edge of the forest belt. Of course taking the town will cut off the UA forces from formal road supply, at least from the south, where as (fire) control over Husarivka does the same from the north.

The #Izium breakthrough & critical supply line is now, after hard fighting, secure from the eastern side & around Oskil. It remained to secure it from the west, for RU forces to be able to take advantage of it. Not only as a main railway hub, now connected to recent captures in

the Lugansk, but also as a broad front from where to advance southwards over sparsely populated areas behind the Sloviansk - Kramatorsk defensive UA defensive lines. On the other hand, this wide & dense forest belt posed an excellent opportunity for UA forces to hold, continue to

fortify and threaten the Izium supply line from. Though brave small UA units tried to do just that, and made RU fight long and hard in this area (not to mention divert significant troops towards it), the UA command did not give this front the priority it strategically warranted.

Though the battle here is far from over, it is clear that the Russian move I speculated could occur here, is in full swing. The RU forces needed for the offensive are deployed in the area and are now beginning their advance. The ploy may have included turning a blind eye to UA

pontoon bridges (such as was discussed in a thread quoted above). UA troops now have to run westward back across the river, to try to defend the twons along the ridgeline, or risk being surrounded. Either way they can no longer threaten Izium. Chepil, Protopopivka & Husarivka are

likely well defended by UA forces and so RU forces a way to go, but if the roads are cut from the north and south, then their fall is likely only a matter of time. There are no major roads west of this ridge for quite a distance, so guarding this western flank will become much

easier for Russia, compared to the situation until now which has been quite different; a major road, fed from N & S, right up to a river & forest belt along the length of the line from where UA forces could threaten the thin break through Izium & its critical supply lines.

This push south will also alleviate artillery strikes and the railway line moving west through Balakliia towards Andriivka, & opens up further options in that direction for RU forces including flanking movements towards Kharkhov. Most important of course, is the ability to move

south towards or around Barvinkove. From the forest battles barely seen through the fog of war between elite units, to this new RU offensive, the forest front west of Izium has been largely ignored even by non mainstream media (who ignore all fronts & details, & randomly scream

"genocide!" as their form of war coverage) who cover such aspects of the conflict. It is reaching what could be its final phase, with RU forces hoping to seal it off, much as I thought prudent. We shall see if they will succeed and overcome the staunch defense of the limited

forces that Kiev deemed appropriate to invest in the area.

#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia