Thread by @opnphoenix

We've had a fairly substantial week a lot of #priceaction #volatility and don't forget more important we had the #FOMC which fairly well documented. I just wanted to recap on the Fed's meeting and my thoughts with this flood so let's crack on with it. 👋 ++

Fed's policy isn't restrictive yet it's at the neutral rate and we're pretty much at the neutral rate restrictive policy is pushing up into territory or territory that we know historically have caused something to break. ++

We've already covered the 50 75 basis points so the question you want to be asking yourself is heading into September's #FOMC what if #inflation remain high and it's persistent what will the #Fed do are they going to come out and slap 100 basis point rate act on the table. ++

Because if they do that's going to cause extreme volatility and certainly we'll see significant downside on equities as well. You just going to be cautious heading into that period of time. ++

Now if #inflation peaks and shows sign of decline momentum then how much more aggressive is the #Fed likely to be so assume that you know come September #inflation is starting to show momentum to the downside does that mean that the #Fed will now revert their policies. ++

We see any kind of rate cuts heading into the markets at least for Q3 Q4 rate cuts will come into effect essentially dependent upon the real economy depends upon #inflation and #unemployment so just pretty much everything that we touched upon that's kind of the key taker from ++

all of this and hopefully that leaves you with some information as to what's happened what the Fed's decision was what forward guidence is and essentially what the #Fed are now looking at moving forward in terms of making a decision for the next #FOMC meeting. ++

#Inflation remains the key number one battle out there for the #Fed and it also remains the case for many central banks especially Europe and don't forget we still have the issues with #oil and high energy prices as well how is that going to impact on #manufacturing in Europe. ++

Because of the #fuel costs shipping #manufacturing where there's a great dependency upon #fuel and #energy. If there's no real immediate resolution between #Russia and #Ukraine then you know as well as sanctions. ++

It's gonna be a very difficult period over the next months unless something drastically changes then we could see the $USD come off much more quickly we could see #inflation drop significantly quicker but until that happens we've to remain fairly cautious in the markets. ++

I hope this flood helped I hope that kind of wanted to break it down for you guys who are fairly new to some of this but we don't want to spend too much time on this anyway. 👀