Ted Darling Profile picture
Aug 12 11 tweets 3 min read
Hello Friday and the Week to date

$SSEC +1.7%
$SPX +1.5%
$KOPSI +1.3%
$DAX +0.9%

$AUD +2.8%
$GBP +1.02%
$GOLD +0.9%
$USD -1.4%

$LUMBER +24.3%
$COTTON +8.8%
$BRENT +5.05%
$COPPER +4.35%
$BTC +3.5%

$TLT -1.8%

Let's dig into more 🧮!
Closed for 🏔️ day yesterday, 🇯🇵 played catch ↗️

$NIKK 28547 +2.6% 🇯🇵
$SSEC 7032 -0.55%
$TWII 15289 +0.6%
$HSI 20163 +0.4%
$KOSPI 2528 +0.15%
$IDX 7130 -0.45%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7032 -0.55%

India ↗️
$BSE 59519 +0.3%
Europe ♉️↗️ at the open

$DAX 13779 +0.65%
$FTSE 7509 +0.6%
$CAC 6578 +0.5%
$AEX 726 -0.05%
$IBEX 8442 +0.75%
$MIB 22986 +0.55%
$SMI 11165 +0.1%
$MOEX 2140 +0.3% 🪆

$VSTOXX 21.15

$DAX range = 13376 - 13858 🐻
🇺🇸 futures ↗️

$ES 4231 +0.55%
$NQ 13376 +0.65%
$RTY 1985 +0.5%

$VIX 20.05

$SPX range = 4050 - 4272 ♉️
$VIX range = 18.28 - 25.65 🐻
Gold and metals taking a break ↘️

$GOLD 1803 -0.25%
$SILVER 20.308 -0.2%
$COPPER 3.70 -0.2%
$PLAT 959 -0.05%
$PALL 2263 -1.1%
$ALI 2520 unch
$ZINC 3643 -1.15%

$GVZ 15.81 🔻

$GOLD range = 1758 - 1842 ↔️
$COPPER range = 3.20 - 3.82 🐻
Hydrocarbons ↔️

$WTIC 94.47 +0.15%
$BRENT 99.97 +0.35%
$GASO 3.08 +0.3%
$BRENT 99.97 +0.35%

$OVX 45.37 🔻

$WTIC range = 87.71 - 101.96 🐻
$NATGAS range 7.12 - 9.47 ♉️
Grains taking a break ↘️

$WHEAT 802 -0.95%
$CORN 639 -0.05%
$SOYB 1453 +0.35%
$SUGAR 18.45 -0.25%

$COFFEE 221.75 -0.8%

$DBA range = 19.35 - 20.90 🐻
The $USD catching a bid ↗️ after a rough week

$USD 105.205 +0.2%
$EUR 1.0298 -0.19%
$GBP 1.218 -0.27%
$AUD 0.712 +0.23%
$USDJPY 133.24 +0.18%
$USDCHF 0.9415 +0.09%
$USDCAD 1.275 -0.09%
$USDRUB 60.903 +0.4% 🪆

$USD range = 104.91 - 107.72 🆕↔️
#cryptocurrencies ↔️

$BTC 23964 +0.1%
$ETH 1892 +0.65%

#Bitcoin range = 21564 - 25125 🐻
UST yields ↘️ across the curve
10/2s to -33 BPS 🔺

$TNX range = 2.57 - 3.04 🆕↔️
$TLT range = 113.71 - 120.03 🆕↔️

Global 10Ys
UST 2.873 -0.015
GILT 2.102 +0.043
BUND 0.99 +0.018
ITA 3.049 +0.034
JPN 0.184 -0.013
AUS 3.45 -0.001
CAN 2.787 +0.112
$CRB ↗️
$SPX ↗️
$GOLD ↗️
$TLT ↘️
$USD ↘️

Classic #Quad1 / #Goldilocks week
Growth 🔺 Inflation 🔻

Transition or aberration? 🌊

That's for you to answer and to position accordingly

Have a super profitable 💰 day and an awesome 😎weekend!

• • •

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More from @tdarling1

Aug 14
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

1/7 🧵

Global Macro Review 08/14/2022

A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️

Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?

Let’s dig into the 🧮! Image
2/7

Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)

$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps

Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️ Image
3/7

US equity indices 🚀

$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline Image
Read 16 tweets
Jul 17
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/17/22

1/7

Has #inflation peaked?

June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%

And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed

Let’s dig into more 🧮!
2a/7

#Commodities

Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold
2b/7

Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum

$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)

Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Read 13 tweets
Jul 15
Hello Friday!

China reporting -2.6% Q/Q growth on the back of Q2 🦠🔒🔻 and US retail sales 🛍️ on tap.

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian equities closed the week ↔️ with 🇨🇳↘️

$NIKK 26788 +0.55%
$SSEC 3228 -1.65% 🇨🇳
$TWII 14551 +0.8%
$HSI 20304 -2.15%
$KOSPI 2331 +0.35%
$IDX 6652 -0.55%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6606 -0.7%

India ↗️
$BSE 53517 +0.2%
Europe opens ↗️

$DAX 12738 +1.75%
$FTSE 7120 +1.15%
$CAC 5968 +0.9%
$AEX 669 +1.35%
$IBEX 7909 +1.35%
$MIB 20882 +1.6%
$SMI 10860 +0.55%
$MOEX 2057 -0.3% 🪆

$VTSOXX 31.01 🛗

$DAX range 12425 - 12925 🐻
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/03/22 🇺🇸
1/9

Powell is committed to fighting #inflation and cares not whether you lose 💰 during the war.

“The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain…”

Let’s dig into the early campaign results 🧮!
2/9

The $USD +0.91% ♉️ is becoming more dear against major currency pairs with $AUD -1.97%, $GBP -1.49%, and $EUR -1.17% on the week

Chart: $USD +6.3% (T) = 3 mos, +9.75% YTD
3a/9

The UST curve both flattened and steepened with 10/2s ↘️ to 5BPS and 30/5s ↗️ to 23.2 BPS

Chart: $IVOL +2.76% (w), +4.9% (T)
Read 16 tweets
Jul 1
Led by the US Federal Reserve, Central Banks in developed markets across the globe committed to inflation fighting and "demand destruction."

What follows is what happens to asset markets with aggressive 👊 🥣 removal

1/n
The $USD 💪 +2.64% as the Fed cut 💦
2/n
Short-rates rose to pre-pandemic levels before pausing with the UST2Y to 2.92%
3/n
Read 16 tweets
May 29
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

🐻 market rallies are wicked, like a 🕷 luring the 🪰 into her 🕸

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the 😬 of #QT
1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to 🎬 the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

💦 is already ↘️ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation 👊🥣 removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22
2/9

Big winners on the week, vol 🌊 sellers took advantage

$VIX 25.72 -371 BPS
$VXN 32.00 -418 BPS
$RVX 30.76 -430 BPS
$VSTOXX 25.66 -300 BPS
$VXEEM 24.72 -233 BPS

Chart: $VVIX - the vol of vol fell to a pre-pandemic low
Read 18 tweets

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