ISW Profile picture
Aug 13 9 tweets 3 min read
New: The #Kremlin is reportedly attempting to mobilize industry to support prolonged war efforts in #Ukraine.

Read tonight's full campaign assessment from @thestudyofwar and @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin initiated the “industrial mobilization” of the defense enterprises in early August... /2
...banning some employees and the entire leadership at the Russian state industrial conglomerate company Rostec from taking vacations. /3
Russian outlet Ura also reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu likely visited the Uralvagonzavod factory, the largest tank manufacturer in Russia and the producer of Russia’s T-72 main battle tanks, on August 12. /4
The GUR previously reported that Uralvagonzavod faced financial issues due to Western-enforced sanctions and failure to meet state contract obligations. /5
If true, Shoigu’s visit could suggest that the Kremlin is attempting to restart or expand the operation of the military-industrial complex. /6
ISW has previously reported that the Kremlin has been conducting a crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy by proposing an amendment to the federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30. /7
The amendment obliges Russian businesses, regardless of ownership, to fulfill Russian military orders and allows the Kremlin to change work conditions for employees. /8
Putin signed the amendment on July 14, which indicates that the Kremlin will continue to introduce more measures to expand the Kremlin’s direct control over the operations of Russia’s military-industrial complex. /9 isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Aug 12
According to @TheStudyofWar, #Russia’s 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, the unit linked to atrocities in #Bucha, has likely been destroyed in combat, possibly in an intentional Kremlin effort to conceal war crimes.

@Newsweek:
newsweek.com/bucha-massacre…
.@RFERL's @kromark conducted an investigation into the brigade following its participation in atrocities in #Bucha and concluded that after heavy fighting on the #Izyum and #Slovyansk axes, the brigade has largely ceased to exist. /1
rferl.org/a/russia-army-…
Krutov stated that out of 1,500 soldiers who were in the brigade before the war, 200 to 300 were likely killed. /2
Read 4 tweets
Aug 10
#Russian and #Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied #Kherson Oblast and #Crimea, but Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for them as of the time of this publication.

Read the latest: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that several aircraft munitions detonated in the storage areas of the Saky airbase due to poor fire protocol, rejecting reports that Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility caused the explosions. /2
The #Kremlin has little incentive to accuse #Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed. /3
Read 4 tweets
Aug 8
August 7 Assessment Highlight

The UK Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) confirmed @TheStudyofWar's previous assessments that Russian military leadership has experienced major turn-overs due to Russian military failures in Ukraine. /1

isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
UK MoD says at least six Russian commanders have likely been dismissed from their posts since the beginning of the war, including Eastern Military District commander Colonel General Aleksandr Chayko & Western Military District commander Colonel General Aleksandr Zhuravlev. /2
UK MoD additionally stated that Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov has been removed from overall theater command of Ukraine and that Army General Sergey Surovikin has taken over the “Southern Grouping” of forces in #Ukraine. /3
Read 5 tweets
Aug 8
August 7 Assessment Highlight:

The Iranian Space Agency (ISA) denied reports on August 7 that #Russia will use an Iranian satellite over Ukraine for several months after Russia launches the satellite on behalf of #Iran. /1

isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
State-run Iranian news outlet IRNA cited an ISA statement on August 7 asserting that the satellite will be controlled by and from Iran “from day one, immediately upon launch.” /2
.@washingtonpost cited two Western intelligence officials’ claims on August 4 that Russia would retain control of the satellite after launch to surveil Ukraine and would cede control of the satellite to Iran at an indefinite future date. /3 washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 8
#Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupied #Ukrainian territory.

Read more in tonight's full report w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ivan Fedorov, reported on August 7 that resistance among Ukrainian residents has forced Russian authorities to “constantly” change their plans for a referendum. /2
Fedorov claimed that occupation authorities had planned a single day of voting but are now considering seven days of “voting from home” in which armed Russian military personnel will go house to house and “interview” Melitopol residents. /3
Read 7 tweets
Aug 7
Local media outlets reported that Khanty-Mansi Okrug and Voronezh and Smolensk Oblasts are forming volunteer battalions and offering one-time enlistment payments ranging between 100,000 and 250,000 rubles (about $1,650 to $4,130). isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Existing Russian military units and the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) are continuing to recruit volunteers to reinforce existing military units. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The Republic of Dagestan also posted explosives expert positions with a requirement for “a desire to serve in the Russian Armed Forces.” /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Read 5 tweets

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