Thread by @Ordakazakhstan_

❗️LONG THREAD❗️
And what if there's a war tomorrow? An expert gave Orda.kz insight into the situation of Kazakhstan's army.

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The most acute socio-economic conflicts and political contradictions are taking place in the modern world. The military-political situation is developing dynamically and the structure and nature of threats to the KZ state are changing qualitatively. /2

In this regard, the role of military force to ensure the political and economic interests of the State has increased significantly.
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This begs the question of whether or not Kazakhstan is able to develop its armed forces today and increase their readiness to respond effectively to possible external threats.
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The Executive director of the Association of Defense Industry Enterprises, Naizabek Olzhabayuly, answered this question.

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The global turbulence and the tragic events of January 2022, like a litmus paper, revealed the shortcomings of the army of Kazakhstan that have accumulated over many years.

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At the same time, the Ministry of Defense (MO) of the Republic of Kazakhstan has previously conducted an analysis of the military-political situation in the world.

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However, the analysis, both on paper and in practice, was carried out according to old Soviet templates without taking into account the realities of the present circumstances.

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Now, one can't help but get the impression that practically in all army management units, there is a practice of creating a picture of well-being in order to divert attention from the actual state of combat../9

..readiness of subordinate formations and units.
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This thesis was confirmed in Tokayev's speech on January 19: "Having at our disposal an army that showed good results during command and staff and military exercises, we could not use its potential in a critical situation and were forced to resort to outside help."
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The first thing to pay attention to is the current inefficient system of public administration and decision—making. Over a 30-year period, 11 defense ministers have been replaced.

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And this seems to be normal, but each subsequent minister rejected all his predecessor's foundations of the construction of the Armed Forces and proceeded to improve the army based on personal conclusions.

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As a result, strategic plans for the Armed Forces: modernization, transformation, optimization, rearmament, the concept of construction and development of the Armed Forces have not been implemented.

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The situation is also complicated by the fact that historically close military cooperation with our northern neighbor has led to the natural dependence of the military elites of #Kazakhstan on the military-political leadership of #Russia.

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Kazakhstan's servicemen, who have been educated in Russian universities, unwittingly adopt not only the advantages, but also certain disadvantages of such schooling, when building the Armed Forces in their country.

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Let's conduct a small analysis of the situation in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Intelligence service

Leading military experts believe that modern and future wars are wars of intelligence and it is intelligence that is the key to success.

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The commander of the 1st Armored Division involved in Iraq, Major General Martin Dempsey noted: "Essentially, here in Baghdad, we are doing two things: we are either fighting for information, or we are fighting on the basis of the information received."

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Performing tasks in modern combat requires the complex use of all types and means of intelligence: space, air, ground, special forces, military intelligence units, intelligence, etc.

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The experience of the US military operations in #Iraq and #Afghanistan, the #RussianFederation in #Syria and Ukraine shows that without the use of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle), modern combat operations are practically impossible.

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When Israeli and Turkish UAVs and "smart" homing ammunition appeared in #Karabakh on September 27, 2020, and Bayraktar appeared in the skies of #Ukraine, many military leaders of the post-Soviet space were personally convinced of their high efficiency.

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And it's not that the UAV is a "super weapon". In modern combat conditions, UAVs are a vital means to achieve information superiority and eliminate unjustified losses.

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The experience of the war in Ukraine shows that none of the warring parties enters into hostilities without the use of UAVs. Moreover, UAVs are most widely used in the lowest level (squad - platoon).

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Knowing how scanty a number of UAVs are equipped with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan, it is possible that in the event of a threat, Kazakhstan, by analogy with the Russian Federation, will have to massively buy Chinese../24

..available quadrocopters to fill the formed niche.

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Automated command and control system.

At the same time, the integrated use of all forces and means of intelligence leads to an overwhelming increase in the flow of information, which entails the need to automate the processes of collecting, processing and../26

..communicating information to decision-makers, both vertically and horizontally.

Unfortunately, the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan has not made any progress in solving this issue to date.

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The evidence of this is the ACS of the Air Defense Forces, which for 11 years is still in the process of experimental military operation (OVE), although in accordance with paragraph 25 of the "Rules for the adoption of the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations../28

..of the RK of the Air Force", approved by the Order of the Ministry of Defense of the RK dated 21.01.2015 No. 30, the terms of the OVE are not must exceed 1 (one) year.

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As a result, both the software and the so-called hardware itself, without the provision of qualified technical support, have practically been maxed out.

Modern weapons and military equipment (IWT).

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At the moment, the equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan with modern models of military equipment is less than 10%, while the lion's share of new models of military equipment falls on expensive Air Defense Forces and the Navy.

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It should be noted that the armament of parts of the Air Defense Forces (Air defense forces) have a common line, which allows for the repair of this equipment, in almost any aviation unit.

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As a result of the disproportionate distribution of financial resources, the basis of the Armed Forces, the ground forces have essentially been left in the dust.

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The percentage of new armored vehicles is less than 5% in total, and artillery and anti-tank systems, as well as air defense equipment have not been updated since the creation of the KZ national Armed Forces. There is no military air defense at all.

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The picture is not the best with the provision of ammunition. Almost 100% of ammunition, with the exception of singularities, is from the 70s - 80s of the last century, the combat capabilities of which inspire doubt.

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In addition, after the explosions at the Tokrau arsenals (2001), Arys (2019) and the Sarykemer ammunition depot (2021), the question involuntarily arises - What is there left to use in combat now?

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The military-industrial complex.

A big unsolved problem for the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan is the domestic defense industry.

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In 2018, Marat Karabayev, Director of the Department for the Development of the Defense Industrial Complex of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan, cheerfully reported:

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"One of the most important tasks that the Ministry of Defense and Aerospace Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan, (...), is successfully implementing is the modernization of defense enterprises and the systematization of the development of the domestic defense industry."

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In the same article it was reported that "(...) the military-industrial complex of Kazakhstan is a knowledge-intensive system of more than 40 enterprises, which provides more than 8 thousand jobs.

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The core of the entire defense industry is the national company "Kazakhstan Engineering", established in 2003, which united more than 20 machine-building enterprises."

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At the same time, despite the presence of the domestic defense industry, work is actually underway to attract foreign suppliers and manufacturers.

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Such an imbalance looks strange, given that in the conditions of fierce economic competition in the world, the growth of international tensions and threats, the interests of domestic producers should be taken into account before others.

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In addition, the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan has forgotten the principle of creating mobilization resources. The basis for the creation of stocks of military equipment in peacetime is the enterprises of the domestic defense industry.

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This principle is inherent in both #Russia and #NATO countries.

The defense industry in peacetime is the main source of preparation of the mobilization resource of engineering and technical personnel, and in a time of need, the source of the formation of repair../45

..bases and field repair teams. A striking example of the involvement of defense industry personnel in the provision of combat operations is the enterprises of the Russian Federation.

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Thus, almost 100% of BTT repair brigades deployed by the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine were formed at the expense of Uralvagonzavod, Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant, Omsk Armored Repair Plant, etc.

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What is more important, "Bayraktars" or business processes?

Based on the conclusions made, after the events of January 2022, real changes are taking place today before our eyes, which can significantly transform the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan in a positive../48

..way. This includes the reorganization of the organizational and staff structure of the Armed Forces, the formation of the Command of Special Operations Forces, and the revision of strategic planning documents.

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In order to eliminate the situational approach and the haste of the measures taken, it is necessary to radically reorganize the entire national security system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Or rather, the control system of the Armed Forces.

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What was the first thing #Azerbaijan acquired from #Türkiye before the #Karabakh campaign?

You would be surprised, but these were not "Bayraktars", but new business processes.

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Only by rebuilding the army according to a new model, radically changing all the key processes in it, it is possible to create armed forces capable of standing up to the challenge of modern challenges and threats.

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In addition, from the specific steps, we see it necessary to do the following:

1. To revive the Committee of Chiefs of Staff (KNSH) of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which was made redundant in 2011. This will provide the ability:

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- to use all the forces and means available in the Republic of Kazakhstan in accordance with a single plan, regardless of departmental affiliation,

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- to organize joint combat training of formations and units of various departmental affiliations according to a single plan during peacetime;
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- to form a unified control system based on automated control points (command post) and a unified communication system, unified signals of command and control of troops.

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- To bring all law enforcement agencies and departments to uniform models of military and military equipment. This will allow the execution of centralized and long-term planning of procurement and withdrawal processes for repair;

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- significantly reduce the cost of their maintenance;

- unify the repair base;

- to unify the training system for personnel directly operating the same type of samples of military equipment on the basis of unified training centers;

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- create a single mobilization resource of spare parts stocks (spare parts, tools and accessories) on the production stocks of defense industry plants;

- create a unified automated network for accounting and logistics of spare parts and ammunition stocks.

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2. To purchase promising samples of military equipment with mandatory collegial decision-making by all heads of law enforcement agencies and departments of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the involvement of representatives of defense industry enterprises.

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3. To organize the repair of military equipment on the basis of enterprises of the domestic defense industry. To stop the practice of using garage service stations, which do not have any special equipment or tools, as repair shops in military units.

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4. To organize broad cooperation between universities of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the domestic defense industry in the development of R&D (Research and development work), as well as the improvement of scientific, technical../61

..and production facilities for the implementation of production.

5. To organize the maximum load of the defense industry both for the production and modernization of existing military equipment.

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I repeat, the deplorable state of Kazakhstan's army is not only in the absence of the latest types of weapons. The military department must undergo a total restructuring. /63

Most likely, such a transformation entails, first of all, a change in the management culture. This is a fundamental change that cannot be dealt with without changes to the existing organizational structure and management systems.

/END

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