Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: #Russian and proxy troops in #Ukraine are likely operating in 6 force groupings oriented on Kharkiv City & NE Kharkiv Oblast; along the Izyum-Slovyansk line; the Siversk-Lysychansk area; Bakhmut; the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area; and Southern Ukraine.
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…

The #Kharkiv City and #Siversk-Lysychansk groups are likely built around cores drawn from the Western and Central Military Districts respectively. The #Izyum-#Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. /2

#Wagner Group private military company (PMC) soldiers are in the lead around #Bakhmut, while forces drawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) predominate in the #Avdiivka-#Donetsk City area. /3

Troops from the Southern Military District (SMD) likely formed the original core of forces in #Kherson and #Zaporizhzhia Oblasts but have been reinforced with troops of the Eastern Military District, Airborne Forces, and Rosgvardia. /4

None of these groupings is homogeneous - elements of various military districts, proxy forces, volunteer units, and other formations are scattered throughout the theater. /5

These dispositions suggest that Moscow is prioritizing the advance around #Bakhmut and, possibly, toward #Siversk with its Russian forces while seeking to draw on the enthusiasm of DNR forces to seize ground they have failed to take since 2014 on the #Avdiivka axis. /6

The high concentration of volunteer battalions around #Izyum and #Slovyansk suggests that that area is not a focus of Russian attention and may be vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks. /7

In the south, the congeries of forces in and around #Kherson Oblast may pose significant challenges to Russian command and control, especially if Ukrainian forces press a counteroffensive there. /8

isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…