Thread by @SabFis3

6 months into #RussiaInvadedUkraine in 🇺🇦, let’s take another look at 🇺🇦🇷🇺 #negotiations. In his latest address #Zelensky referred to preparations for a show trial against 🇺🇦 soldiers in #Mariupol. 1/11
kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zele…

This, he said, would “eliminate the possibility of talks with 🇷🇺”.

Mariupol also played an important role in the failure of the initial negotiation phase in May. Talks had already come to a near stand-still when the battle of Mariupol ended ... 2/11

... with the surrender of the defenders of the #Azovstal iron and steel works on 16/05. Up to 1700 🇺🇦 soldiers fell into 🇷🇺 captivity, facing threats of tough punishment, including #Medvedev’s infamous musings about the death penalty. 3/11

🇺🇦 demands for a prisoners’ exchange went unheard.
For #Kyiv, this was a key reason to withdraw from the negotiations - as were 🇷🇺 efforts to create quasi-state structures in the occupied territories of #Kherson and #Zaporizhzhia. 4/11

On 17/05, 🇺🇦 and 🇷🇺 officially withdrew from negotiations.

Since then, talks have focussed on humanitarian issues and secondary effects of the war, notably 🇺🇦grain exports and the situation around the #Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. 5/11

The “grain deal”, facilitated by UNSG #Gutierres and 🇹🇷 President #Erdogan in July, was an important, if fragile, success. 6/11

crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

🇺🇦 seems to follow a plan. In June, head of the 🇺🇦 delegation to the negotiations #Arakhamia, said that 🇺🇦 could return to the table from a stronger military position at the end of August, after the beginning of a counteroffensive. 7/11

golosameriki.com/a/arakhamia-hu…

This is what Kyiv is working on: 🇺🇦 forces have been trying to regain territory in the south. They increasingly target Crimea to put pressure on 🇷🇺.

Last week’s encounter between Zelensky, Gutierres and Erdogan in Lviv was a rather skillful move on the part of 🇺🇦. 8/11

Zelensky reinforced 🇺🇦position while at the same time demonstrating initiative and a sense of responsibility. He also received commitments from 🇹🇷 on 🇺🇦 territorial integrity and economic reconstruction. 9/11

In comparison, Putin, doesn’t seem to have much of a plan, except clinging to his initial war aims and trying to get Western nations to withhold support for UA because of their evolving energy crises. 10/11

Tomorrow, 23 August, will see the 2nd summit of the International Crimea Platform. Wednesday, 24 August is 🇺🇦Independence Day, exactly 6 months from the beginning of the invasion.
Can 🇺🇦succeed? The answer depends on the West's response. 11/11
zn.ua/eng/why-should…