This, he said, would “eliminate the possibility of talks with 🇷🇺”.
Mariupol also played an important role in the failure of the initial negotiation phase in May. Talks had already come to a near stand-still when the battle of Mariupol ended ... 2/11
... with the surrender of the defenders of the #Azovstal iron and steel works on 16/05. Up to 1700 🇺🇦 soldiers fell into 🇷🇺 captivity, facing threats of tough punishment, including #Medvedev’s infamous musings about the death penalty. 3/11
🇺🇦 demands for a prisoners’ exchange went unheard.
For #Kyiv, this was a key reason to withdraw from the negotiations - as were 🇷🇺 efforts to create quasi-state structures in the occupied territories of #Kherson and #Zaporizhzhia. 4/11
On 17/05, 🇺🇦 and 🇷🇺 officially withdrew from negotiations.
Since then, talks have focussed on humanitarian issues and secondary effects of the war, notably 🇺🇦grain exports and the situation around the #Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. 5/11
The “grain deal”, facilitated by UNSG #Gutierres and 🇹🇷 President #Erdogan in July, was an important, if fragile, success. 6/11
🇺🇦 seems to follow a plan. In June, head of the 🇺🇦 delegation to the negotiations #Arakhamia, said that 🇺🇦 could return to the table from a stronger military position at the end of August, after the beginning of a counteroffensive. 7/11
This is what Kyiv is working on: 🇺🇦 forces have been trying to regain territory in the south. They increasingly target Crimea to put pressure on 🇷🇺.
Last week’s encounter between Zelensky, Gutierres and Erdogan in Lviv was a rather skillful move on the part of 🇺🇦. 8/11
Zelensky reinforced 🇺🇦position while at the same time demonstrating initiative and a sense of responsibility. He also received commitments from 🇹🇷 on 🇺🇦 territorial integrity and economic reconstruction. 9/11
In comparison, Putin, doesn’t seem to have much of a plan, except clinging to his initial war aims and trying to get Western nations to withhold support for UA because of their evolving energy crises. 10/11
Tomorrow, 23 August, will see the 2nd summit of the International Crimea Platform. Wednesday, 24 August is 🇺🇦Independence Day, exactly 6 months from the beginning of the invasion.
Can 🇺🇦succeed? The answer depends on the West's response. 11/11 zn.ua/eng/why-should…
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Noteworthy quote from #Lavrov today. By pointing out that the "geography" of #RussiainvadesUkraine has changed + is no longer about the #Donbas but about the southern "and several other" territories, he seems to put in perspective his boss's statement in Tehran last night. 🧵1/8
Dodging the question whether he was ready to meet #Zelensky, #Putin referred to the Istanbul Communiqué of 29/03, which (would have) stipulated, among other things, the withdrawal of 🇷🇺troops behind the lines of 24/02. "We almost had a deal", he said. 2/8
The Istanbul Communique died a lonely death in the weeks that followed, and 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 negotiations ground to a halt. Why Putin referred to it so explicitly yesterday - I have no idea. But apparently there was a need for ex-post clarification in Moscow. 3/8
The mood in Moscow is swinging back to “we can win this thing”. This is very dangerous.
To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)
or a sanctions for grain deal (West partially lifting sanctions and 🇷🇺 ending blockade of 🇺🇦 ports - which is what Moscow cunningly demands): please be aware that you are corroborating this fatal belief in Moscow! (2/8)
@meduzaproject says it very clearly: "Kremlin officials are skeptical that Western nations can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on. Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. (3/8)
👇👇👇 meduza.io/en/feature/202…
🇺🇦’s effort to defend itself against #RussiasWar is jeopardized on various levels. Western leaders must be careful not to undermine it. „Freezing“ the conflict along the current lines of combat would be extremely disadvantageous for 🇺🇦 and set a dangerous precedent for Europe.
🇷🇺 intensifies its efforts to complete the occupation of the Donbas and the southeast of 🇺🇦, putting 🇺🇦's army under enormous strain. 🇷🇺 is simultaneously working to transform the newly occ terr into de facto statelets (building administrative structures, handing out passports).
In March Kyiv desperately searched for negotiated solutions in the face of 🇷🇺’s mil superiority. This let to a 10 point plan presented in Istanbul on 29/03, combining restoration of the 23/02 contact line and talks about Crimea‘s status with neutrality and security guarantees.
Alice Schwarzer findet @kstade jetzt sei "ein guter Zeitpunkt" für Verhandlungen und "sowohl Putin als auch Selenskyj verschlimmern durch Macho-Gehabe die Situation".
Wow. Da hat Alice Schwarzer aber einiges nicht verstanden. 1/6 #RussiainvadesUkraine #WeStandwithUkraine
👇👇👇
Die Behauptung beiderseitiger Verantwortung für den Krieg ist grundfalsch. 🇷🇺führt einen völkerrechtswidrigen und verbrecherischen Angriffskrieg. 🇺🇦 führt einen legitimen Verteidigungskrieg. Gleichwohl lieben ganz linke und ganz rechte Kreise in 🇩🇪 dieses unsinnige Argument. 2/6
Die 🇷🇺Politik ist schon lange von Chauvinismus und Misogynie gekennzeichnet. Das zeigt sich nach Innen, wo ein vollständig von Männern dominiertes, diktatorisches Regime nun die letzten Räume (nicht nur) für feministische Aktivitäten schließt - von LGBTI ganz zu schweigen. 3/6
Ein paar Gedanken dazu, was nach 1.5 Monaten #RusslandsKrieg jetzt nötig ist. 1. 🇺🇦 braucht schnell mehr Waffen, leicht und schwer, um die 🇷🇺 Offensive im Osten und Südosten abzuwehren und Gelände zurückzugewinnen. Ausbildungszeiten etc. sind kein Argument.
1/9
Der Krieg wird dauern – und zu viel Zeit ist schon verloren gegangen. Die Frage ist jetzt: womit können Charkiw, Mariupol, Mikolajiw, Odesa etc. verteidigt werden? Dann sollte gemeinsam mit den Partnern alles daran gesetzt werden, dass das in 🇺🇦 ankommt. 2/9
2. Waffen und Sanktionen/Energieembargo sind nicht alternativ, sondern komplementär – sie haben unterschiedliche Zeithorizonte. Waffen helfen 🇺🇦 jetzt, sich zu verteidigen. Sanktionen reduzieren mittelfristig 🇷🇺Fähigkeit, den Krieg zu führen. Beides ist absolut notwendig. 3/9
There seems to be a notable shift in RU‘s propaganda this week. On 04/04 RIA Novosti published an article by a certain Timofey Sergeytsev which spells out (again) some of the key RU war goals: 🧵 1/9
„denazification needs to be pursued by the victor“ (= no compromise with UA is possible) and „the denazified country cannot be sovereign“ (= independent UA is to be wiped off the map). But Sergeytsev‘s interpretation of „denazification“ differs significantly 2/9
from the previous use of the term, incl in official statements. The gist of his „oeuvre“ is that „denazification“ not only concerns UA pol leadership, but needs to be extended to ALL OF UA, bc the majority of the population supported UA’s „fascist leadership“. 3/9