Thread by @generalsvr_en

Former Soviet President #Gorbachev died recently. Since the death of the first and last president of the USSR, there has been much debate about the assessment of his personality and his deeds.
1/15

Many, quite rightly, compare #Putin and #Gorbachev and conclude that these are two absolute antipodes. Given that Putin is Gorbachev's antagonist, the key event in Gorbachev's fate is the State Emergency Committee.
2/15

The State Emergency Committee, which was actually the final point in #Gorbachev's rule of the country, is almost inevitable for #Putin. Already today, part of the power elite considers Putin a weakling and slobber who, with his indecisiveness, "dumps" the country.
3/15

So far, this is a small and not the most influential part of the leadership of the power bloc, but these people are not far from the idea of ​​intercepting power if they consider that the situation is catastrophic for them.
4/15

It is no secret that Secretary of the #Russian Security Council #Patrushev enjoys absolute authority and trust of the main part of the power bloc in #Russia. He actually oversees all power structures in the country and feels, like no one else, the mood of the elites.
5/15

#Patrushev does not have presidential ambitions, but in a certain scenario, he can become, even informally, at the head of a "palace coup", promoting his man (Patrushev's eldest son Dmitry is a priority) to the post of the head of state.
6/15

#Putin understands this very well, and that is why he pretends that Dmitry Patrushev personally suits him as a successor.
In this way, the President keeps Nikolai Patrushev at a controlled close distance with his promises.
7/15

Moreover, to prevent behind-his-back negotiations, #Putin himself suggested to #Patrushev that negotiations be held through intermediaries with representatives of Western governments on non-interference in transit, which is scheduled to begin at the end of this year.
8/15

#Putin is not informed about all the nuances of these negotiations, which have been going on with varying intensity for about two months now. But the President believes that this is enough for #Patrushev to refuse attempts to seize power by force but in vain.
9/15

Firstly, over the years, #Patrushev has learned to understand what #Putin is doing and for what purpose. Secondly, he understands that the President’s refusal to launch transit this year triggers such political turbulence next year that #Russia has not yet known.
10/15

Under such conditions, it will be incomparably more difficult to intercept and then retain power. Behind #Patrushev is a team of security officials, that is, the same collective "State Emergency Committee" of a new kind.
11/15

But one must also understand what #Patrushev is ready to do to put his son at the head of the country. Now, through intermediaries, he offers Western elites for non-interference in the transit process, in which his son will lead the country, the end of the war.
12/15

Also, #Patrushev offers the rejection of part of the occupied territories, putting forward one condition - to leave #Crimea as a part of the territory of #Russia. Of course, Patrushev will not fulfill his obligations.
13/15

After the transit, he will have to keep the existing system of power in the country, and the system is already in a state where it cannot exist without internal repression and external aggression.
14/15

Patrushev under #Putin, like the State Emergency Committee under #Gorbachev, will collapse, only it will take longer, and it will be much more bloody and destructive for the country.
15/15