Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: #Ukraine has decisively won the Battle of #Kharkiv Oblast, @TheStudyofWar can assess, recovering its territory northwest, north, and northeast of the city and ending the Russian ground & artillery threat to Ukraine’s second-largest city. Update 🧵

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1568960358127226882

#Izyum is back under Ukrainian control. Its operational significance has long pinned significant Ukrainian forces to the defense of #Slovyansk to its south. Izyum's liberation allows those defenders to join the counteroffensive, reinforcing it and allowing it to keep going. 2/

The Ukrainian breakthrough and exploitation operations north of #Izyum have completely unhinged the Russian defenses throughout northeastern #Ukraine. The Russians are scrambling to find a new defensive line far to the east and have given up on #Kharkiv. 3/

Ukrainian forces have also liberated the operationally significant town of #Vovchansk, northeast of #Kharkiv. Vovchansk lies on one of the key ground lines of communication from the Russian military hub of #Belgorod into northeastern #Ukraine very close to the Russian border. 4/

Securing and holding #Vovchansk can preclude Russian efforts to retake the areas they are now losing. 5/

The #UkrainianCounteroffensive has shocked the Russians and driven them into a panicked and disorderly retreat. The Russians have not been mining areas they retreat from as they did when they pulled back from around Kyiv. 6/

Furthermore, Russian forces retreating from #Kharkiv Oblast are leaving behind large amounts of equipment and supplies that Ukrainian forces can use to continue counteroffensive operations. 7/

Russian Ministry of Defense maps confirm that the Russians are abandoning these positions and intend to take up a defensive line along the #Oskil River that runs through #Kupyansk and south toward the #Sviatohirsk area. 8/

These Russian maps are likely overstating what they can hold - Ukrainian forces are likely to drive through that defensive line and push Russian forces further to the east. 9/9

Updated maps & full campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats to follow this evening.