Nicolas Tenzer Profile picture
Sep 18 10 tweets 7 min read
Always remember the genocide of the Tatars of #Crimea.
Also always talk about the forced disappearances, torture, persecution of #Tatars and the destruction of their culture by Putin's #Russia since 2014.
Also do not write off Crimea.
Right time to write a #thread on #Crimea.
1/9
1 Some consider Crimea a side issue. No, in terms of law #CrimeaIsUkraine and Western leaders must be consistent with their statements on Crimea's territorial integrity. It comprehends Crimea.
Full stop.
2/9
2 Let's stop with the lying "Crimea is Russian" speech. Besides the fact that it has not always been, the historical legitimization has no value. Only international law counts.
The annexation of Crimea had only one precedent in Europe since WWII: the Sudetenland by Hitler.
3/9
3 Moreover, Crimea voted for independence from #Ukraine in 1991.
Please do not mention the pseudo-referendum of 2014, conducted under threat, and whose result was never recognized by the international community.
The EU far right rushed there to supposedly observe... Bastards!
4/9
4 Narrative also heard: "For #Russia, Crimea is Russian and part of its vital interests".
First reaction: so what?
Second: let's stop buying the Russian propaganda speech. Let's also stop buying the perception it seeks to impose of its alleged #redlines. Let's pulverize them!
5/9
See also how little reaction there was when the Russian bases in Crimea were attacked and and the Russian tourists panicked and left this peninsula which is not theirs.
Joyful humiliation. And then?
6/9
5 From a military point of view, it is not excluded (not for sure) that Crimea can be reconquered even before the Donbass. We had this discussion in Prague (@Forum_2000) with @PavloKlimkin during a panel. Pavlo and I fully agreed to consider this hypothesis.
7/9
6 Strategically, no doubt the #Crimea matters to #Russia (notably Sevastopol), but it also matters to #Ukraine and the Allies.
We must stop systematically and first of all placing ourselves on the side of a Russian point of view.
Have we learned nothing?
8/9
7 As for the rest of #Ukraine, giving Kyiv all the means to reconquer Crimea is also a way to stop Russian exactions against the civ.ilian population. Time is of the essence.
It is not incidental, either in terms of values or in strategic terms.
#SaveTheUkrainians
9/9
Of #Ukraine, of course (sorry for the misprint).

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More from @NTenzer

Aug 24
On this day when, in thought with my Ukrainian friends, I am celebrating the 31st anniversary of the independence of #Ukraine.
I would like to say one simple thing: the whole world has been able to see with the force of evidence that this is a great nation...
Слава Україні!
1/22
carried by an extraordinary people.
There are few moments in history when an entire people, from the most anonymous person to its leaders, has shown such courage, such strength, such dignity, such exemplarity.
2/22
This great nation of #Ukraine is also great because of its vision and political ideals. It has built itself as a great nation not by a historical heritage that it has taken over passively, but by its present and current will.
It has made history.
It has instituted freedom.
3/22
Read 22 tweets
Aug 21
I read many (opposing) comments about the supposed or real influence of Alexander #Dugin. I made some myself on several TV and radio stations today.
He was certainly not Putin's Rasputin, nor his director of conscience. But was he without influence?
Let's try to find out.
1/14
⬇️
I don't think you have to be on one side or the other. Things are more subtle and there are methodological points to consider.
The binary opposition of the two theses makes no sense.
2/14
1 First of all, yes, Dugin's books and articles were not equivalent in Putin's ideological system to the Communist Party Manifesto or Marx's Capital in Soviet references or Mao Zedong's Little Red Book. Here me on Putin's ideology.
3/14
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-does-vl…
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21
A necessary reminder of the obvious: to think that #Ukraine, as the usual propagandists, Zakharova and others, say, is behind the murder of #Dugin's daughter is totally inane & inconceivable.
The origin is obviously internal, not external.
Hence a brief #thread on this story
1/7
1 First of all, I unreservedly condemn this assassination.
I think that Dugin should be tried in an international criminal court, just as Julius Streicher was. He is guilty of multiple calls to murder. This does not justify the attempt to kill him.
It's a matter of principle.
2/7
2 The relative sophistication of the operation hardly suggests the action of an improvised opposition group.
It is highly doubtful that elements of the Russian security services (which ones? that the question) were not involved.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Aug 19
I agree 100% with what President @ZelenskyyUa stated again.
There can be no discussion, let alone negotiation, with Putin's #Russia until its forces are driven out of the entire #Donbass and #Crimea.
Some elements in this recap #thread.
1/11
1 First, any proposal by Putin in this sense is a ruse—he is stalling in #Ukraine and he knows it. He's trying to hold on to what he has, before replenishing his forces and going on the offensive again.
Let's not give in.
2/11
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/we-must-save…
2 Given the massive crimes against humanity committed in Ukraine by Putin, accepting negotiations would implicitly mean wiping the slate clean on these imprescriptible crimes.
This is Putin's goal—we gave in to #Syria. Let's not do it for #Ukraine.
3/11
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/russian-mass…
Read 11 tweets
Aug 17
I fully agree with this op-ed, signed by prominent U.S. experts, many of them friends, incl. @john_sipher, @AmbDanFried, @EvelynNFarkas, @general_ben, @ARVershbow, @kvolker, @JohnEdHerbst, etc.
The US must do more, to make #Ukraine win completely.
1/6
thehill.com/opinion/nation…
We are at a decisive moment where #Ukraine can win. It must. I can't imagine any decent person thinking otherwise.
This means that Putin's regime must be defeated radically, totally, as I had expressed here.
2/6
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/we-must-save…
Western leaders must have total clarity on our war aims: #Russia must be defeated, for #Ukraine, because more crimes against humanity are intolerable, unacceptable, and for the world. This is a responsibility before history, eminent among all.
3/6
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/russian-mass…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
Peskov, Putin's spokesman, denied the existence of any #agreement on "de-escalation" (I repeat, not a goal in itself) nor anything in terms otherwise contemptuous of France.
This was totally predictable.
Quick #Thread
#Russia
1/6
theguardian.com/world/2022/feb…
1 There could be no agreement, and indeed I would have been somewhat concerned if there had been. It would have meant that @EmmanuelMacron would have accepted concessions. He didn't actually.
But there cannot and should not be any, not now, not later.
2/6
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/why-the-west…
2 There was talk of "commitment" - just vague commitment to continue the discussions. Nothing more. No commitment not to attack #Ukraine, one way or another, no commitment by Moscow to implement the Minsk agreements (not really).
Moscow will continue.
3/6
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/fogs-of-war-…
Read 6 tweets

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