Rappel au droit.
Un fil🧵
Les propos de B. Retailleau ont suscité une indignation légitime et fondée, accrue par ses fonctions actuelles.
Ils représentent un risque majeur.
Nous devons défendre l'#Etatdedroit et montrer ce qu'il implique. Il doit nous réunir.
Voici pourquoi.
1/16 L'Etat de droit suppose qu'il n'existe pas de souveraineté absolue d'un quelconque pouvoir.
Il définit une souveraineté limitée de chacun en vertu du principe libéral selon laquelle il ne saurait y avoir de domination de l'un d'entre eux.
C'est un régime d'équilibre.
2/16

I'm late in sharing some remarks collected by @cleacaulcutt for @POLITICOEurope (I was interviewed while I was in Chelm train station, Poland, on my return from Kyiv last Tuesday).
Great recent progres obviously, but my main questions remain.
⬇️
1/4
politico.eu/article/ukrain… “The Ukrainians are very concerned about what the real objectives of allied nations are,” said Nicolas Tenzer, author of “Our War,” a book about Ukraine. “Are the Americans, the French and the Germans prepared to pull out all the stops so that Ukraine ultimately wins?”
2/4

It's high time the Allies took action to drive the Russian enemy out of Ukraine.
Not tomorrow, but now.
In fact, I've been asking for this since February 24, 2022. It would have saved over a hundred thousand lives and increased our security.
A thread.
1/13
🧵 What hasn't been done hasn't been done.
As Spinoza once wrote, “regret is a useless feeling”. But it can only haunt us.
Now, let's get on with it.
There must be not limitation on our side.
2/13

Ten theses.
A thread.
🧵
1 We're at war with Russia, not because we've declared it, but because it's waging war on us.
#OurWar 2 Russia is waging a war of extermination. That's just a fact.
It's a war without limits, neither in time nor in space.

As those of you who have been following me for some time know, April 30 is a special day for me.
On that day in 1945, the #Ravensbrück concentration camp was liberated. My mother, Martha Tenzer, a resistance fighter in Belgium who had been arrested by the Gestapo in 1943,...
1/8 was “celebrating” her 25th birthday there.
She would have turned 104 today.
She had joined the Resistance at the age of 20, and was Jewish. Fortunately, her false papers concealed her origin.
When she was liberated and handed over to the Red Cross of Sweden,...
2/8

So wonderful to listen again to the awesome @avalaina, Nobel Peace Prize, whom I met in Kyiv last July, today at @WarsawForum #WSF interviewed by @AslanTV.
She rightly emphasized the lack of bravery of the world leaders.
Some edited extracts in this #thread.
1/7 "I wish no one had to experience what we're experiencing now with Russia's absolute war against the Ukrainian people since February 2014.
We already had so many stories of people who survived captivity and the worst tortures that we documented.
We must never get used to this.
2/7

Today, as every year on April 30, I commemorate the liberation of the #Ravensbrück concentration camp—78 yrs ago.
On that day, my mother, who was there, was "celebrating" her 25th birthday.
I pay tribute to her today.
On that day, Hitler killed himself in his bunker.
#Thread
1/13 Mom was a member of the #Resistance in Belgium. She was arrested by the Gestapo in 1943 after her network was denounced. She went from prison to prison as a Nacht und Nebel political prisoner.
Her false papers concealed her Jewish origins.
Her last stop was #Ravensbruck.
2/13

Some reminders in the form of a short #thread.
1 Democratic leaders should avoid talking about "peace talks" or "peace agreements" even in the distant future, at least as long as Putin's regime, or the equivalent, is in place.
Period.
1/6
🧵 2 Let's stop lending any interest to supposed #mediation attempts. We do not need a mediator. We need to ensure #Ukraine's victory. That's all there is to it.
Western governments should stop with this desire to be deceived all the time.
2/6

Itw superbement menée par @ilasserre avec @ZelenskyyUa
"Le monde ne parlera plus de la même manière à la Russie. Les Occidentaux vont devoir revoir leur politique 🇷🇺, même si un autre dirigeant arrive au pouvoir à Moscou. Vous devez changer de vision."
1
lefigaro.fr/international/… "L'escalade, ce sont les Russes qui en sont responsables. Ils ont torturé, assassiné, enterré des gens vivants. Je savais par les livres que ce genre de meurtres & atrocités de masse existait. Je ne pouvais pas imaginer que cela puisse se reproduire dans le monde d'aujourd'hui"
2

10 principles for these weeks (recap).
1 In the medium to long term, the main cost would be the non-defeat of #Russia.
It would be terrible for #Ukraine, #Syria, #Georgia, #Belarus, #Moldova, #Africa..., but also for Europe and the world.
It should dictate our strategic goal. 2 In the short term, the worst cost is measured in terms of Ukrainian lives (civilians, military, people in the occupied territories, incl. Crimean Tatars).
This is what must matter to us first.
We must defeat #Russia as quickly as possible with all possible conventional weapons.

If this US decision to send M1 #Abrams tanks to #Ukraine (despite some technicalities) were confirmed, it would be remarkable.
It certainly depends on the number.
With 200 or 300 #Leopard2, a real game-changer.
But time is of the essence.
#Thread 🧵
1/6
wsj.com/articles/polan… First, we, democratic countries, must be clear about our goal: to give Kyiv the means to reclaim ALL the territories invaded since 2014 (including #Crimea).
We need to move from "Defend #Ukraine" to "Make #Ukraine win" and "Defeat Russia".
Let's be straightforward.
2/6

Je vais tenter de répondre en plusieurs temps.
Mon propos n'est jamais que la prolongation de mes avertissements depuis plus de quinze ans sur le régime russe.
A mon sens, retomber aujourd'hui dans le "camp de la paix" serait risquer le même type de bévue que celui qui
1/16

https://twitter.com/GerardAraud/status/1596124043702591488

nous a conduit au désastre mortel.
Certes, dans chaque camp, il existe des nuances, principalement en termes de réponse opérationnelle à la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine. Mais de toutes les discussions que j'ai eues au cours des derniers mois, je conclus qu'ils existent bel
2/16

To be fair, @EmmanuelMacron doesn't legitimize Putin's war of extermination. Elsewhere, he says no peace should include recognition of a status quo imposed by force.
But in saying this—"Russian power has been nourished by the resentment & humiliation born of the breakup...
🧵
1/9

https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1584218057987481601

of the Soviet empire"—, he not only commits a major communication blunder (for that is what will be remembered), but once more misunderstands the nature of the Russian regime.
1 He still does not grasp that...
2/9

I have difficulty understanding the intent of this message in terms of communication and substance.
A short thread on this.
Let's talk straight.
🧵
1/7

https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1583560486343553024

1 In terms of substance, the question is not whether or not to isolate Putin, but to ensure that the Russian regime loses the war, is put out of action, which implies its disappearance—I certainly understand that @MinColonna can't say this explicitly.
2/7
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-would-t…

1 Putin's #Russia is the #enemy, the absolute enemy, not by nature but because of the threats it poses to the whole world.
Since too long.
Let's declare it so for good!
He's the total #evil, personally, and—most importantly—politically.
Short #thread🧵
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-does-vl… 2 #Russia must be defeated totally, radically, absolutely, i.e. strategically.
It must be put out of action.
Its troops must be expelled from #Ukraine, from #Georgia, from #Belarus, from #Syria, from #Africa.
For the sake of humanity.
Our goal.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/six-months-e…

Merci pour ce message qui témoigne de votre intérêt pour mes longs papiers sur #TenzerStrategics (ce qui fait la spécificité de ce blog).
Vous n'êtes pas la première à me le demander (et merci à mes abonnés en forte croissance à travers le monde).
Quelques éléments de réponse.

https://twitter.com/neve_2017/status/1575742932443103236

1 Chacun(e) peut utiliser le cas échéant un logiciel de traduction.
2 Mon public n'est pas essentiellement français (d'où le choix de l'anglais, langue de fait universelle qu'on le veuille ou non).
3 Je n'ai pas d'assistant(e) - cela explique aussi que je laisse de nombreux...

20 theses on #Ukraine/#Russia: recap.
1 We must act not only for Ukraine to win, completely, but also for Russia to lose, fully.
Let's stop fearing a collapse of Russia (which some weak minds are more worried about than Ukraine's victory).
A #Thread
🧵
1/20 2 There can be neither negotiations (apart from one-off issues like prisoner exchanges) with Putin's regime, nor peace talks.
Any hint of this weakens us.
2/20

Quick #thread on #Putin's speech.
1 We in the West need to stop buying into the rhetoric about #redlines and the nuclear threat.
I reminded him yesterday on a program: he has been using this rhetoric for many years.
1/13 To buy into it is to give up—with consequences for other countries elsewhere.
Not coincidentally, this is also a narrative picked up by Putin's propagandists in the West who push for a negotiated solution, peace talks, not arming #Ukraine, no trial for Putin, etc.
2/13

What is interesting here is not so much the content of the message—quite classic—as its very existence.
It may show a willingness (to be confirmed) of the US to re-engage in the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan conflict when it had been very absent during the 2020 war...
1/4

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1572014443915251713

and, before that, little involved in the Minsk group.
The EU as such was, by the way, also.
This left the door open for #Russia, which has become a kingmaker in this region, and reinforced its troops after the 2020 war.
It had also given a tacit nihil obstat to #Azerbaijan.
2/4

Always remember the genocide of the Tatars of #Crimea.
Also always talk about the forced disappearances, torture, persecution of #Tatars and the destruction of their culture by Putin's #Russia since 2014.
Also do not write off Crimea.
Right time to write a #thread on #Crimea.
1/9

https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1571224642915864576

1 Some consider Crimea a side issue. No, in terms of law #CrimeaIsUkraine and Western leaders must be consistent with their statements on Crimea's territorial integrity. It comprehends Crimea.
Full stop.
2/9

On this day when, in thought with my Ukrainian friends, I am celebrating the 31st anniversary of the independence of #Ukraine.
I would like to say one simple thing: the whole world has been able to see with the force of evidence that this is a great nation...
Слава Україні!
1/22 carried by an extraordinary people.
There are few moments in history when an entire people, from the most anonymous person to its leaders, has shown such courage, such strength, such dignity, such exemplarity.
2/22