Nicolas Tenzer Profile picture
Sr civil servant former director @RevueLeBanquet chair @CERAP_Paris Guest Prof @PSIASciencesPo non-resident senior fellow @cepa #geostrategy #risks #humanrights
Oct 4 7 tweets 3 min read
So wonderful to listen again to the awesome @avalaina, Nobel Peace Prize, whom I met in Kyiv last July, today at @WarsawForum #WSF interviewed by @AslanTV.
She rightly emphasized the lack of bravery of the world leaders.
Some edited extracts in this #thread.
1/7 Image "I wish no one had to experience what we're experiencing now with Russia's absolute war against the Ukrainian people since February 2014.
We already had so many stories of people who survived captivity and the worst tortures that we documented.
We must never get used to this.
2/7 Image
Apr 30 13 tweets 8 min read
Today, as every year on April 30, I commemorate the liberation of the #Ravensbrück concentration camp—78 yrs ago.
On that day, my mother, who was there, was "celebrating" her 25th birthday.
I pay tribute to her today.
On that day, Hitler killed himself in his bunker.
1/13 ImageImage Mom was a member of the #Resistance in Belgium. She was arrested by the Gestapo in 1943 after her network was denounced. She went from prison to prison as a Nacht und Nebel political prisoner.
Her false papers concealed her Jewish origins.
Her last stop was #Ravensbruck.
2/13 Image
Feb 26 6 tweets 5 min read
Some reminders in the form of a short #thread.
1 Democratic leaders should avoid talking about "peace talks" or "peace agreements" even in the distant future, at least as long as Putin's regime, or the equivalent, is in place.
🧵 2 Let's stop lending any interest to supposed #mediation attempts. We do not need a mediator. We need to ensure #Ukraine's victory. That's all there is to it.
Western governments should stop with this desire to be deceived all the time.
Feb 11 7 tweets 3 min read
Itw superbement menée par @ilasserre avec @ZelenskyyUa
"Le monde ne parlera plus de la même manière à la Russie. Les Occidentaux vont devoir revoir leur politique 🇷🇺, même si un autre dirigeant arrive au pouvoir à Moscou. Vous devez changer de vision."
1… "L'escalade, ce sont les Russes qui en sont responsables. Ils ont torturé, assassiné, enterré des gens vivants. Je savais par les livres que ce genre de meurtres & atrocités de masse existait. Je ne pouvais pas imaginer que cela puisse se reproduire dans le monde d'aujourd'hui"
Jan 26 10 tweets 6 min read
10 principles for these weeks (recap).
1 In the medium to long term, the main cost would be the non-defeat of #Russia.
It would be terrible for #Ukraine, #Syria, #Georgia, #Belarus, #Moldova, #Africa..., but also for Europe and the world.
It should dictate our strategic goal. 2 In the short term, the worst cost is measured in terms of Ukrainian lives (civilians, military, people in the occupied territories, incl. Crimean Tatars).
This is what must matter to us first.
We must defeat #Russia as quickly as possible with all possible conventional weapons.
Jan 24 6 tweets 4 min read
If this US decision to send M1 #Abrams tanks to #Ukraine (despite some technicalities) were confirmed, it would be remarkable.
It certainly depends on the number.
With 200 or 300 #Leopard2, a real game-changer.
But time is of the essence.
#Thread 🧵
1/6… First, we, democratic countries, must be clear about our goal: to give Kyiv the means to reclaim ALL the territories invaded since 2014 (including #Crimea).
We need to move from "Defend #Ukraine" to "Make #Ukraine win" and "Defeat Russia".
Let's be straightforward.
2/6 Image
Nov 26, 2022 16 tweets 4 min read
Je vais tenter de répondre en plusieurs temps.
Mon propos n'est jamais que la prolongation de mes avertissements depuis plus de quinze ans sur le régime russe.
A mon sens, retomber aujourd'hui dans le "camp de la paix" serait risquer le même type de bévue que celui qui
1/16 nous a conduit au désastre mortel.
Certes, dans chaque camp, il existe des nuances, principalement en termes de réponse opérationnelle à la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine. Mais de toutes les discussions que j'ai eues au cours des derniers mois, je conclus qu'ils existent bel
Oct 23, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
To be fair, @EmmanuelMacron doesn't legitimize Putin's war of extermination. Elsewhere, he says no peace should include recognition of a status quo imposed by force.
But in saying this—"Russian power has been nourished by the resentment & humiliation born of the breakup...
1/9 of the Soviet empire"—, he not only commits a major communication blunder (for that is what will be remembered), but once more misunderstands the nature of the Russian regime.
1 He still does not grasp that...
Oct 23, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read
I have difficulty understanding the intent of this message in terms of communication and substance.
A short thread on this.
Let's talk straight.
1/7 1 In terms of substance, the question is not whether or not to isolate Putin, but to ensure that the Russian regime loses the war, is put out of action, which implies its disappearance—I certainly understand that @MinColonna can't say this explicitly.
Oct 1, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
1 Putin's #Russia is the #enemy, the absolute enemy, not by nature but because of the threats it poses to the whole world.
Since too long.
Let's declare it so for good!
He's the total #evil, personally, and—most importantly—politically.
Short #thread🧵… 2 #Russia must be defeated totally, radically, absolutely, i.e. strategically.
It must be put out of action.
Its troops must be expelled from #Ukraine, from #Georgia, from #Belarus, from #Syria, from #Africa.
For the sake of humanity.
Our goal.…
Sep 30, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Merci pour ce message qui témoigne de votre intérêt pour mes longs papiers sur #TenzerStrategics (ce qui fait la spécificité de ce blog).
Vous n'êtes pas la première à me le demander (et merci à mes abonnés en forte croissance à travers le monde).
Quelques éléments de réponse. 1 Chacun(e) peut utiliser le cas échéant un logiciel de traduction.
2 Mon public n'est pas essentiellement français (d'où le choix de l'anglais, langue de fait universelle qu'on le veuille ou non).
3 Je n'ai pas d'assistant(e) - cela explique aussi que je laisse de nombreux...
Sep 26, 2022 20 tweets 7 min read
20 theses on #Ukraine/#Russia: recap.
1 We must act not only for Ukraine to win, completely, but also for Russia to lose, fully.
Let's stop fearing a collapse of Russia (which some weak minds are more worried about than Ukraine's victory).
A #Thread
1/20 Image 2 There can be neither negotiations (apart from one-off issues like prisoner exchanges) with Putin's regime, nor peace talks.
Any hint of this weakens us.
Sep 21, 2022 13 tweets 6 min read
Quick #thread on #Putin's speech.
1 We in the West need to stop buying into the rhetoric about #redlines and the nuclear threat.
I reminded him yesterday on a program: he has been using this rhetoric for many years.
1/13 To buy into it is to give up—with consequences for other countries elsewhere.
Not coincidentally, this is also a narrative picked up by Putin's propagandists in the West who push for a negotiated solution, peace talks, not arming #Ukraine, no trial for Putin, etc.
Sep 20, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
What is interesting here is not so much the content of the message—quite classic—as its very existence.
It may show a willingness (to be confirmed) of the US to re-engage in the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan conflict when it had been very absent during the 2020 war...
1/4 and, before that, little involved in the Minsk group.
The EU as such was, by the way, also.
This left the door open for #Russia, which has become a kingmaker in this region, and reinforced its troops after the 2020 war.
It had also given a tacit nihil obstat to #Azerbaijan.
Sep 18, 2022 10 tweets 7 min read
Always remember the genocide of the Tatars of #Crimea.
Also always talk about the forced disappearances, torture, persecution of #Tatars and the destruction of their culture by Putin's #Russia since 2014.
Also do not write off Crimea.
Right time to write a #thread on #Crimea.
1/9 1 Some consider Crimea a side issue. No, in terms of law #CrimeaIsUkraine and Western leaders must be consistent with their statements on Crimea's territorial integrity. It comprehends Crimea.
Full stop.
Aug 24, 2022 22 tweets 11 min read
On this day when, in thought with my Ukrainian friends, I am celebrating the 31st anniversary of the independence of #Ukraine.
I would like to say one simple thing: the whole world has been able to see with the force of evidence that this is a great nation...
Слава Україні!
1/22 carried by an extraordinary people.
There are few moments in history when an entire people, from the most anonymous person to its leaders, has shown such courage, such strength, such dignity, such exemplarity.
Aug 21, 2022 14 tweets 5 min read
I read many (opposing) comments about the supposed or real influence of Alexander #Dugin. I made some myself on several TV and radio stations today.
He was certainly not Putin's Rasputin, nor his director of conscience. But was he without influence?
Let's try to find out.
⬇️ I don't think you have to be on one side or the other. Things are more subtle and there are methodological points to consider.
The binary opposition of the two theses makes no sense.
Aug 21, 2022 7 tweets 5 min read
A necessary reminder of the obvious: to think that #Ukraine, as the usual propagandists, Zakharova and others, say, is behind the murder of #Dugin's daughter is totally inane & inconceivable.
The origin is obviously internal, not external.
Hence a brief #thread on this story
1/7 1 First of all, I unreservedly condemn this assassination.
I think that Dugin should be tried in an international criminal court, just as Julius Streicher was. He is guilty of multiple calls to murder. This does not justify the attempt to kill him.
It's a matter of principle.
Aug 19, 2022 11 tweets 7 min read
I agree 100% with what President @ZelenskyyUa stated again.
There can be no discussion, let alone negotiation, with Putin's #Russia until its forces are driven out of the entire #Donbass and #Crimea.
Some elements in this recap #thread.
1/11 1 First, any proposal by Putin in this sense is a ruse—he is stalling in #Ukraine and he knows it. He's trying to hold on to what he has, before replenishing his forces and going on the offensive again.
Let's not give in.
Aug 17, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
I fully agree with this op-ed, signed by prominent U.S. experts, many of them friends, incl. @john_sipher, @AmbDanFried, @EvelynNFarkas, @general_ben, @ARVershbow, @kvolker, @JohnEdHerbst, etc.
The US must do more, to make #Ukraine win completely.
1/6… We are at a decisive moment where #Ukraine can win. It must. I can't imagine any decent person thinking otherwise.
This means that Putin's regime must be defeated radically, totally, as I had expressed here.
Feb 8, 2022 6 tweets 4 min read
Peskov, Putin's spokesman, denied the existence of any #agreement on "de-escalation" (I repeat, not a goal in itself) nor anything in terms otherwise contemptuous of France.
This was totally predictable.
Quick #Thread
1/6… 1 There could be no agreement, and indeed I would have been somewhat concerned if there had been. It would have meant that @EmmanuelMacron would have accepted concessions. He didn't actually.
But there cannot and should not be any, not now, not later.