Post

Julian Pawlak

Sep 27, 2022 • 27 tweets • 22 min read • Read on X

@Tagesspiegel

"Our imagination does´nt has any scenario left in which this could not be a targeted attack" @Tagesspiegel quotes a person involved in the assessment of the German gov regarding the incidents at the #Nordstream #pipelines in the #Balticsea

A first thread ⚠️ #Druckabfall

Yesterday, authorities acknowledged a decrease in pressure in both pipelines; first in NS2, later also in NS1. The 3(!) leakages are to be found in the East of Danish Bornholm (NS2), and also two leaks in the Northeast of the Island (NS1)

Two leaks are within the Danish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), one is in the Swedish EEZ. Sea depth in the region is around 50m.

@tagesschau

The Nord Stream AG speaks of unprecedented incidents and that it´s currently not foreseeable at what point the system would be able to operate again, according to @tagesschau.
But what could be the cause of such incident?

Obviously, gas pipelines are not known to break incidentally without further reason, particulary when they are quite new. Nord Stream 1 was put into operation in 2011 and operated since then without any larger incident. Nord Stream 2 was just finished recently in 2021.

@Tagesspiegel

Today, both are broken - and to no suprise #sabotage cannot be excluded and is even put forward, as mentioned by @Tagesspiegel. German Green @JTrittin speaks of the possibility of a forced disturbance. In light of the current conflict w/ #Russia, speculations are surging...

But first: consequences.
What are the consequences for now? Economically, there are almost none. NS2 was never in use, and NS1 was stopped with the beginning of September.
Regarding maritime shipping, areas of 5 nautical

... miles (nm) are currently encircled around the incidencts and prohibit ships from bypassing the pipeline, which is rather a precautionary measure. The red shaded lines on the map show you the main sea lanes of cummincation used in the #Baltic next to the incidents.

@Umwelthilfe

Ecological consequences are currently mainly identified in the escaping #methane, according to @Umwelthilfe:

https://twitter.com/Umwelthilfe/status/1574393680781361153?s=20&t=llT798XYJUsEy7RkR50-XA

What remains is still the question of the cause(s). Admittedly, I dont participate in speculations. Currently the origin of the leaks is still unknown & has to be examined in detail yet.

In any way, there are possibilities of how such leaks could occur due to external influence - accidentally, or on purpose. Also, Russia of course has certain capabilities to do so. Three examples:

1) It´s almost frequent that undersea cables (not pipelines) are interrupted by ships´ anchors or even fishing nets. This is however not so easy with quite hard steel pipelines, and also unlikely at 3 points at the same day.
bbc.com/news/world-eur…

@CovertShores

2) Quite recently, the 🇷🇺 special purpose #submarine #Belgorod catched the headlines. It´s a modified OSCAR III sub and said i.a. to be able to interfere with undersea communications; cables, but therefore also pipelines. The best work on that is to be found w/ @CovertShores

The #Belgorod would surve as a 'mother sub', carrying additional units to interfere on the #seabed. Yet, the #Baltic is to shallow to leave such huge unit operate undetected in the sea and can almost certainly be excluded.
hisutton.com/Spy%20Subs%20-…

3) Spy ships, unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV), and divers.
Keeping it w/ the 🇷🇺 Navy, Russian 'research vessels' are frequently observed loitering next to undersea cables, as in the #NorthAltantic. An example is the Yantar hisutton.com/Yantar.html

Additionally, vessels and submarines are able to deploy hiddenly combat divers and also unmanned underwater verhicles for operations below the surface and on the seabed.

Eventually - what to conclude:
The Baltic Sea is a confined and shallow sea, and almost any movement is tracked and observed by the littoral states and their navies to create a sufficient picture and so-called Maritime Situational and Maritime Domain Awareness. Particularly since

@hemicker

... February 24, activities of surveillance increased, as recently documented by @hemicker w/ 🇩🇪 Maritime Patrol Aircraft #MPA next to #Kaliningrad @CdrDeuNavalAir faz.net/aktuell/politi…

Therefore, it will be interesting to see what details will emerge to the public regarding maritime activites in the Baltic and around the #Nordstream #pipelines in particular.

As a final word, more broadly: It is true that since 2014 and notably since Feb 2022 high intensity warfare and collective defense returned as the core task of #NATO allies. Yet, the levels below the threshold of armed conflict keep their significance.

@NATO_MARCOM

Therefore, @NATO_MARCOM and allied navies consider and prepare for #hybrid activities, including #sabotage of critical infrastructure, besides the main focus of collective defense. This is important and should not be forgotten.