Thread by @TheStudyofWar

🧵Russian commentators overwhelmingly expressed their hopes that partial mobilization would generate enough force to resume offensive operations and regain the initiative. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576380512725131264

2/ Chechen leader Ramzan #Kadyrov, apparently devastated by the defeat in #Lyman, called on #Russia to continue to fight to "liberate” the four annexed territories with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

3/ #Kadyrov’s call to use tactical nuclear weapons is likely incompatible with his own and other Russian statements and actions showing continued commitment to seizing more Ukrainian territory. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

4/ The Russian military in its current state cannot operate on a nuclear battlefield even though it has the equipment and has trained to use it in the past. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

5/ The rag-tag Russian ground forces currently fighting in #Ukraine are insufficiently disciplined, motivated, and organized to function in a nuclear environment. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

6/ Any areas affected by Russian tactical nuclear weapons would thus be impassible to the Russians, precluding further Russian advances. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

7/ This consideration is another factor reducing the likelihood of Russian battlefield nuclear weapons use in #Ukraine as long as #Russia remains focused on regaining the initiative and launching new offensives.
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

8/ #Kadyrov specifically blamed the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander #Lapin, for failures around #Lyman. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

9/ #Kadyrov’s attacks gained significant traction within the Russian information space and indicate that the rift between Russian traditional and non-traditional forces is likely growing. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1