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Oct 2 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces liberated #Lyman on October 1. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources indicated that the BARS-13 detachment that was holding the Russian defensive line in #Drobysheve, just northwest of #Lyman, withdrew to #Kreminna (about 25km east of Lyman). /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources discussed Ukrainian attacks north of #Lyman around #Torske, #Terny, and #Yampilske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing efforts to take settlements north of Lyman as well. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Details about Ukrainian advances remain unclear, however. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

ISW will continue to monitor developments around #Lyman and provide updates on control of terrain as they become corroborated. /5
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka areas and continued routine fire along the line of contact in #Donetsk Oblast on October 1. /6
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Oct 3
🧵The Russian defeat in #Kharkiv Oblast and #Lyman, combined with the #Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2
2/ #Kremlin-sponsored media & Russian milbloggers – a prominent Telegram community composed of Russian war correspondents, former proxy officials, & nationalists – are grieving the loss of #Lyman while simultaneously criticizing the bureaucratic failures of partial mobilization.
3/ #Kremlin sources and milbloggers are attributing the defeat around #Lyman and #Kharkiv Oblast to Russian military failures to properly supply and reinforce Russian forces in northern #Donbas and complaining about the lack of transparency regarding the progress of the war.
Read 14 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 3
Tonight's campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats focuses on dramatic changes in the #Russian information space following the Russian defeat around #Lyman and in Kharkiv Oblast and amid the failures of Russia’s partial mobilization. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian forces made continued gains around #Lyman, #Donetsk Oblast, and have broken through Russian defensive positions in northeastern #Kherson Oblast. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow when more confirmation is available.
3/ Key inflections in ongoing military operations on October 2 are detailed below.
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2
Read 11 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in #Ukraine. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The practice of prematurely assigning cadets to reserve regiments will likely further degrade already-poor command structures. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Underprepared cadets will be forced into leadership roles with insufficient training and little or no professional experience. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
🧵Russian commentators overwhelmingly expressed their hopes that partial mobilization would generate enough force to resume offensive operations and regain the initiative. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
2/ Chechen leader Ramzan #Kadyrov, apparently devastated by the defeat in #Lyman, called on #Russia to continue to fight to "liberate” the four annexed territories with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
3/ #Kadyrov’s call to use tactical nuclear weapons is likely incompatible with his own and other Russian statements and actions showing continued commitment to seizing more Ukrainian territory. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 2
Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on #Russia and liberated #Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1.

Read our latest campaign assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from #Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to avoid the “threat of encirclement” in the settlement. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Social media footage and Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered #Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 1
Putin announced the illegal #Russian annexation of four #Ukrainian territories without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories or making even basic administrative decisions on boundaries and governance.

isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
2/ Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to specify the borders of the newly annexed territories in a September 30 conversation with reporters: "[the] Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics [DNR and LNR] were recognized by Russia within the borders of 2014...
...As for the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, I need to clarify this. We will clarify everything today," Peskov said. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…
Read 9 tweets

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