1/10 A high-level Turkish delegation travelled to #Tripoli yesterday and signed a series of MoUs with the #GNU.
This latest development introduces a new episode to the Libyan crisis that will have repercussions on national, regional, and international levels. 🧵
This latest development introduces a new episode to the Libyan crisis that will have repercussions on national, regional, and international levels. 🧵
2/10 The MoUs were kept secret, with only #Turkey & Dabaiba’s inner circle aware of the agreements. Many ministers within the GNU found out last minute without having access to the text itself.
Dabaiba’s foreign allies such as the UAE have also been kept in the dark.
Dabaiba’s foreign allies such as the UAE have also been kept in the dark.
3/10 Dabaiba, like his predecessor Sarraj, signed the agreements out of despair to ensure Turkey’s role as a strategic ally to stay in power.
For him, the deal is essential as he thinks only Turkish can help him contain and manage his alliance of armed groups in Tripoli.
For him, the deal is essential as he thinks only Turkish can help him contain and manage his alliance of armed groups in Tripoli.
4/10 For Turkey, this is yet another strategic manoeuvre to widen its interests within the greater East Med.
Although conscious that such a move will be met with resistance, Ankara seems confident that neither Libyan nor international actors will be able to stand in its way.
Although conscious that such a move will be met with resistance, Ankara seems confident that neither Libyan nor international actors will be able to stand in its way.
5/10 The MoUs were met with widespread outrage in #Libya, with 72 HCS & 92 #HoR MPs denouncing it, along with the leadership of the HoR & #GNS.
#Egypt & #Greece heavily condemned the MoUs stating that the GNU lacks the mandate to sign such deals in accordance with the LPDF.
#Egypt & #Greece heavily condemned the MoUs stating that the GNU lacks the mandate to sign such deals in accordance with the LPDF.
6/10 The EU, on the other hand, issued a half-hearted rejection of the Turkey-GNU MoUs, warning against any moves that could lead to escalation.
Going forward, Dabaiba will have to come out publicly to defend the MoUs & convince the public that they are within their interests.
Going forward, Dabaiba will have to come out publicly to defend the MoUs & convince the public that they are within their interests.
7/10 We expect he will embark on another populist policy giving handouts under a new pretext to address any public backlash against him, his government, and Turkey.
8/10 Sources well-informed on the matter have informed us that through his new Deputy Interior Minister, Emad AlTrabelsi, the GNU will begun dispersing funds across the western mountains to prevent any grassroots action against Turkey’s presence in AlWatiya Military Airbase.
9/10 As far as Haftar is concerned, this amounts to the third time he has been cheated by Dabaiba.
The first being after he voted for Dabaiba’s list in the LPDF.
Second was the NOC agreement that saw Bin Gdara’s appointment as NOC Chief before being stripped of his authorities.
The first being after he voted for Dabaiba’s list in the LPDF.
Second was the NOC agreement that saw Bin Gdara’s appointment as NOC Chief before being stripped of his authorities.
10/10 Finally, the signing of these MoUs with Turkey, without consulting Haftar’s ally in the Oil & Gas sector, i.e., Bin Gdara.
This points to escalations on all levels.
This latest episode hugely undermines peace and security, not just in Libya but the region as a whole.
This points to escalations on all levels.
This latest episode hugely undermines peace and security, not just in Libya but the region as a whole.
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