Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Bashagha

Most recents (8)

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Is a protracted #stalemate burgeoning in Libya?

PM #Bashagha took his oath in Tobruk a month ago—& he still hasn’t swept into office or begun governing.

He himself told the media about the physical act of #entering Tripoli “w/in days”, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Bashagha & his ministers entering Tripoli soon is w/in the realm of the possible.

But the thing is, That won’t necessarily be enough to discard Dabaiba.

I.e., entering Tripoli won’t necessarily put an end to the current crisis.

A slew of profound issues are still outstanding.
A big chunk of opinion & sentiment in both Tripoli & Misrata remains skeptical about Bashagha.

Latter has been making a bit of progress but there’s still a gap.

Plus, the passage of time alone isn’t doing all that work for free, *no matter* how isolated & weak Dabaiba looks.
Read 10 tweets
The war in #Ukraine will bring a sea change in the #Libyan crisis

#JeuneAfrique kindly included a few of my thoughts on why observers really ought to brace for substantial side effects, not just minor ones.

[ thread on the #Russia facet of the #Libya reality c. 2022 ]
Since the Feb. 24 launch of the invasion of Ukraine, apart from lots of unfounded speculation, there’s been not a shred of evidence to suggest any number of #Russian fighters have left Libya.

In fact, over the last several months, the number of Russians in #Brak has increased.
Historically, 1 of the top reasons #Russia has acquired a clandestine #military presence in #Libya is the fact that it’s key strategic territory on #NATO’s southern flank. The #Ukraine crisis of 2014 deepened the Kremlin’s perception of NATO as hostile to Russia’s core interests.
Read 13 tweets
Die Wahl v Fathi Ali #Bashagha zum libyschen Premier durch das ostlibysche Repräsentantenhaus in Tobruk lässt vermuten, dass der Machthaber in Ost-#Libyen, Khalifa Haftar, den Mann aus Misrata zum Kontrahenten des Premiers, dem Tripolitaner Abdulhamid Dbeiba, aufbauen möchte. 1/5
Dbeiba hat einen Rücktritt kategorisch ausgeschlossen, er würde nur eine Abwahl durch das Volk akzeptieren. Ziel v Haftars Manöver könnte es sein, die Tripolitaner zu seinen Gunsten in einen kriegerischen Konflikt zwischen den Bashagha- u den Dbeiba-Loyalisten zu stürzen. 2/5
Bashagha wurde 2018 zum Innenminister der tripolitanischen Regierung der Nationalen Einigung (GNA) ernannt. Der Geschäftsmann u frühere Politenausbilder steht politisch den libyschen Muslimbrüdern nahe u vertritt den Militärrat von Misrata in der tripolitanischen Regierung. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Intl community has a plan and #Libya has another plan...

Natl Election Commission announces peaceful closure of electoral centres due to candidacy of #Saif #Gaddafi and #KhalifaHaftar in Zawiya Gharyan Khoms Zliten

Now add Mislata Tajura & Tripoli

#MENA
aawsat.com/home/article/3…
#Libya’s National Elections Commission rejects #Saif #Gaddafi candidacy... then immediately deletes the rejection on the Facebook page.

Testing the pulse?

#MENA #OilAndGas #Libyaoil #ليبيا
US State Dept SPOX, Samuel Warburg: There are problems with considering a #Saif #Gaddafi presidency due to his @IntlCrimCourt arrest warrants and the fact that he's still subject to US (OFAC) & Intl sanctions

#Kleptocracy #MENA #OilAndGas #Libyaoil #ليبيا
Read 38 tweets
1/ Seems #Haftar has pulled off a last minute upset after finding himself being cornered by his allies locally and internationally.
While his allies find themselves shuffling to make sense of yesterday’s developments, Haftar is positioning himself as sole negotiator of the east.
2/ For #Haftar to successfully achieve this goal, he will need to carry out a hard reset as his advisors are now blamed for failing to secure a new executive consisting of their allies.

#Agila is facing heavy criticism both socially and politically in Eastern #Libya.
3/ #Agila was warned by constituents to avoid a deal with #Bashagha and to have a back up plan that allows a ‘socially’ acceptable candidate take his place such as #Baraghthee of #AlWafi (in that order).

The competition for social credit is now between #Haftar & #AlMnefi.
Read 7 tweets
1/4 The winning list for the #LPDF is the most difficult to enforce.

The international community designed and pushed for a #Bashagha/#Agila victory, and were prepared to deal with the difficulties that may face it.

However, this scenario was not in their calculations.
2/4 The new Prime Minister, Abdulhamid #Dbaiba’s name is synonymous with corruption in #Libya and there is currently an investigation underway looking into allegations of bribery made against him in the #LPDF.
3/4 As for Mnefi, the new head of the Presidential Council: He is known to be affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and has no weight in Eastern #Libya, which he is meant to represent.

This list fails to take into account regional considerations with regards to #Egypt.
Read 4 tweets
#Libya
Thank you Sohail for stating these inconvenient facts about pro- #Erdogan #Bashagha That some analysts nearly portray him as Jesus of Tripoli
#Libya
Worth noting that #Bashagha — the alleged anti corruption, pro-protestors— was in Turkey when #Serraj sacked him.
He flied by his OWN private plane!
Now watch how #Bashagha was welcomed by loyal militias after returning from #Turkey
Read 4 tweets
#Libya Leaked letter by #GNA Interior Minister #Bashagha ordering the closure of 3 detention centres in #Misurata #AlKhums & #Tajoura.

This move follow remarks to @UN Security Council. "Forces on both sides have failed to observe their obligations under int. humanitarian law." Image
@UN #Libya Interesting that the "closure" is ONLY for those DCs where very few people are held.

1/In total, not more than 600 people are in #Misurata #Alkhums #Tajoura

2/Suq al Khamis DC in #Alkhums is not on the list & many #Eritrea|n #Sudan|ese #Somalia|n are there since months
@UN Following last week chaotic disembarkations, when many people were left without a place to go, yesterday "constructive meeting" with Libyan Navy + Coast Guard could underline the need to continue sea operations even if DCIM does not identify DCs for people to go. Image
Read 3 tweets

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