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Oct 19 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian sources stated that #Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations across the entire frontline in #Kherson Oblast. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian forces continued to target #Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and ammunition depots in central #Kherson Oblast. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian authorities are struggling to cope with their reduced logistics capacity through #Crimea following the attack on the #Kerch Strait Bridge. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Oct 20
🧵Russian President Vladimir #Putin's October 19 decrees identified several sectors in which the Russian state will be exerting increasing control. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct… Image
2/ In areas of maximum and medium readiness, the decree calls for unspecified “mobilization measures in the economic sphere,” likely to provide economic and industrial support to Putin’s so-called “partial” mobilization of at least 300,000 Russian men.
3/ In all areas, the decree makes provisions for government control of transportation and communications infrastructure as well as increased security around government buildings and other critical infrastructure.
Read 8 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 20
#Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of #Ukraine— resettling tens of thousands of unwilling Ukrainians in #Russia. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct… Image
2/ Mass withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River is likely intended to evacuate Russian occupation officials in anticipation of Ukrainian advances, but also to create a façade of humanitarian necessity to mass deport Ukrainians to #Russia, as @TheStudyofWar has reported.
3/ #Russia does not appear to reap economic benefits from these forced evacuations, suggesting that the purpose is to damage #Ukraine’s economic recovery and to support #Russia’s ethnic cleansing campaign to eradicate #Ukrainian ethnicity and culture.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 20
#Putin declared varying levels of “martial law readiness” across #Russia and in Russian-occupied #Ukrainian territories ranging from “maximum” (full-scale martial law in Russian-occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts) to “basic” (all of Russia). Image
2/ Putin’s Oct. 19 declaration of martial law readiness is largely legal theater meant to legitimize activities the Russian military needs to undertake or is already undertaking while creating a framework for future mobilization and domestic restrictions. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
3/ #Putin did not formally declare martial law outside of #Kherson, #Zaporizhia, #Donetsk, and #Luhansk oblasts, but instead directed areas outside #Ukraine to build out the legal framework necessary to support Russian mobilization.
Read 8 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 19
Russian troops conducted a limited ground attack in northern #Kharkiv Oblast on October 18, seemingly suggesting that Russian forces may retain territorial aspirations in Kharkiv Oblast despite massive losses during the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Ohirtseve, a settlement 2km south of the international border and about 50km northeast of #Kharkiv City.
3/ The nature of this limited incursion is unclear, but it may suggest that Russian troops are continuing offensive operations near the border.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 19
October 18 Assessment Highlight:

#Belarus continues to provide its territory and airspace to support the Russian invasion of #Ukraine but remains highly unlikely to enter the war on #Russia’s behalf. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct… Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 18 that #Belarus continues to allow #Russia to use Belarusian military infrastructure and airspace to launch missile, air, and Shahed-136 drone attacks on #Ukraine.
3/ Geolocated social media footage shows Russian military hardware moving through #Belarus by rail, which is consistent w/ @TheStudyofWar's previous assessments that Belarus will continue to engage in the war as a co-belligerent w/o its forces directly joining combat operations.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Oct 19
Russian occupation officials are attempting to incentivize Ukrainian citizens under Russian control in northern Kherson Oblast to flee to Russia as Ukrainian forces advance. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
2/ The head of Russia’s Kherson occupation administration, Vladimir Saldo, announced an “organized, gradual displacement” of civilians from four towns on the right bank of the Dnipro River on October 18.
3/ The newly-appointed head of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, Sergey Surovikin, claimed on October 18 that Ukrainian forces were preparing indiscriminate missile strikes on Kherson City and preparing to breach the Nova Kakhovka dam.
Read 5 tweets

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