a) Positive cigarette volume traction in a stable tax regime.
b) Strong pricing & benefits of backward integration in paper and paper board in near term.
(2/10)
c) Structural recovery with robust outlook in ARR and occupancy levels in hotels.
d) Sustained growth across segments in FMCG with margin expansion likely from Q3/Q4 FY23.
👉Expect slowdown in growth post FY23 given high base of current year.
(3/10)
🚬CIGARETTES
👉Revenues grew by 23.3% yoy & EBIT by 23.6% yoy. Margins expanded by 18 bps.
👉Volumes surprised on the upside backed by innovation & premiumisation.
👉Flat pricing, superior mix & benefits of trade initiatives helped ITC to grow faster.
(4/10)
🍫FMCG
👉Revenues grew by 21% yoy & EBIT grew by 17.9% yoy. Margins contracted by 17 bps yoy.
👉EBITDA margin was down 50 bps due to severe inflationary impact.
👉Strong growth was seen in Staples & Convenience foods & Discretionary products.
(5/10)
👉Hygiene products portfolio remain subdued due to waning impact of COVID.
👉Expect operating led benefit in margins while volatile raw materials remain a key risk.
(6/10)
🛎 HOTELS
👉Revenue grew by 81.8% yoy. Margins came in at 15.7%.
👉ARR & occupancy levels were ahead of pre-pandemic levels driven by retail (packages), leisure, weddings & MICE segments.
👉ARR/Occupancy improved yoy with demand outlook remaining strong.
(7/10)
📰PAPERBOARDS, PAPER & PACKAGING
👉Revenues grew by 25% yoy, EBIT grew by 54% yoy. Margins expanded 518 bps yoy.
👉Revenue growth is driven by strong demand across end user segments & value added paperboard.
(8/10)
👉Fine paper shows robust performance with high demand in notebooks & publications.
👉Nadiad unit for packing started in the qtr. It has backward integration into pulp & saw high margins due to high global pulp price which are not sustainable & may correct post Q3 FY23.
(9/10)
🌿AGRI BUSINESS
👉Revenues grew by 44% yoy, EBIT by 16.6% yoy. Margins down by 203 bps.
👉Driven by growth in wheat, rice & tobacco exports leveraging strong customer relationships, sourcing network & agile execution & benefits of supply chain disruption.
(10/10)
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👉The company's Q2FY23 performance has reaffirmed that they have turned even mightier after the pandemic.
👉Over the past 15 years, it has grown its loan book at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% and profit at a CAGR of 51%, with an average ROE of 17%.
(2/4)
👉They have shown improvement across loan growth, profitability and asset quality.
👉Robust growth in assets, better asset quality and fall in provisions/credit costs underlined performance even as operating expenses increased during the quarter.
👉CLSA has flagged mean reversion as a derating risk for Indian equities.
👉A record valuation premium in equities as well as domestic bonds indicates low margin of safety.
👉A simple valuation mean reversion anchored on bond yields indicates fear of 30% in Nifty.
(2/4)
👉About individual stocks in NSE500, 55% have current TTM PE higher than 5 year avg.
👉At high volatility & stretched valuations, PEG ratio can do good in quality stock selection as high PE stock can be a good bet if it is expected to report strong earnings growth.
🔸News headlines are rarely helpful for investors. Most are just junk flowing through. Even today, there is no shortage of headlines which are just up-to-date version of the past headlines.
(2/4)
🔹Most investors do badly because they pay too much attention to the news & react too much to the events.
🔸So now the question comes, what news should one react to for making investment decisions? What news might affect stock markets?
👉Indian tech IPOs are finding the going hard due to depressed valuations & a more conservative approach from the market regulator.
👉Droom technology is the latest IT company to withdraw its IPO of around Rs 30 billion preferring to raise money in private market.
(2/5)
👉The online loss making automobile marketplace had filed Prospectus in Nov 2021 & withdrew last week.
👉Droom is not the 1st to shelve IPO this year. In August, online healthcare platform API Holdings cancelled Rs 62.5 billion IPO citing tough market conditions.
👉SEBI seems to be regretting some of the IPOs it approved last year, after they have eroded investments away. They include Paytm, Policy bazaar & even Zomato.
👉Now, SEBI is paying closer attention to how valuations are decided.
(2/5)
👉Earlier SEBI proposed that loss-making tech companies should explain how they decided pricing & how it compares to pre-IPO funding rounds.
👉But now, SEBI is asking cos in the tech space to make earning projections for the coming qtrs to check if they achieve them.
👉They are a tech driven affordable housing co supported by centralized underwriting & in-depth understanding of local properties having pan-India presence.
👉They provide home loans to 1st time buyers with focus on salaried individuals having monthly income of < Rs 50k