This is why the usd is going to be in real trouble (vs #commodities) for the next 20 years and why we are on the cusp of a huge #resources bull/boom market
China makes actual products and sends them around the world running a fairly balance trade surplus/deficit. They’ve spent the last 20 years locking down supplies for their economy. Long term contracting. Company purchases. Cozying up to all sorts of regimes…politics free
At the peak of the last commodity bull China’s exports as a % of their GDP ran up to 30-35% making them very vulnerable to a global slow down and the USA which accounted for ~1/3 of their exports. (Going from memory)
But now China is running around 20% exports vs GDP and USA is only 17-18%. ~60-70% drop in China’s reliance on USA buying goods to support its GDP. This is a huge change over the last 15 years. Bottom line. China doesn’t need the USA much anymore.
I see the relationship evolving to the point where they are nearly just competitors fighting to push inflation to the other while trying to keep inflation low at home. China’s has the ability to acquiring resources abroad in exchange for cheaply manufactured goods.
China will also offers help with infrastructure building, ports, rails and investment/loans. The USA and Europe have been getting squeezed out of the global resource trade. Getting back in the game will be very expensive for the west, take a decade or two and also be inflationary

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More from @BambroughKevin

Nov 10
#Alameda wipe out looks to be exposing #tether to a run on the bank (coin) that it wont likely survive. This event will implode the crypto ecosystem. Contagion will take down all exchanges.
It’s my opinion (for over a year) that this will happen as I believe #tethers ‘commercial paper’ is actually largely swaps that it does with a few major exchanges. #ftx was likely a huge player
What I think happened was exchanged took cash money from new accounts and gave them newly created #tethers #usdt

They got the usdt via swaps with tether.

Exchange gives tether ‘I owe you $1 bln’ note (commercial paper)

Tether gives exchange $1 bln tether
Read 10 tweets
Nov 10
The #crypto cult has to come to terms with the #cryptocrash

The ecosystem is completely fucked

Confidence is now destroyed as it should be

Regardless of what exchange you are on and how many imaginary dollars you might have in a digital wallet. Just know it’s all bullshit
These crooks have taken in your funds and engaged in swaps with tether and other stable coins. They gave the sealed ‘Comercial paper’ and spent your money on rent, advertising, computers, salaries, and likely hookers and blow.
This is what happens when you piss about with unregulated exchanges run by grifters and excons

I tried to warn people. Hope some people got money out cause I’m certain few will now. They’ll let you buy some bullshit stable coin but you won’t be able to off ramp from ecosystem
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8
I’m never comfortable playing a ‘greater fool game’. It’s important to pick a style of investing that is both proven and suits your personality. I’m a conviction investor with a long term macro focus. The research I did let me to specializing in resources.
There is no doubt in my mind that being an expert in resource investing will pay off over the long run. The sector is both cyclical and absolutely necessary. We will always need raw materials. The best time to invest is after years of starvation for the industry
The original investment to find, prove up, permit, and develop a mine so it can product is all but forgotten. All that matters to existing producers is free cashflow based on operating (once in operation). They rarely shut down when profitable. And some restart too soon
Read 6 tweets
Nov 8
All the exchanges know they are fucked… imho Binance knows these ‘run on the bank’ problems will destroy ALL the crypto exchanges. So they this is a move to try to stop the liquidity drain from the complete and total bullshit crypto ecosystem
Just remember the entire ecosystem is nothing but a cash burning parasite on the real economy. Someone has to pay all their employees, rent, power bill, advertising. Etc. so who pays? Suckers.

The industry is built on a ponzi system…
It must always sucker in new money by selling fraud stable coins via swaps, generate commissions by getting people to trade and also feeing people for account services. They have cross invested in a never ending stream of garbage coins with nothing more than different names
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4
One thing I’m sure of is the FOMC will bankrupt $JPM before me.

Keeping your gold and silver stocks and enjoy the divs in the meantime. The capital gains to come will be well worth the wait. 10-20x stuff takes years.

Just don’t let them scare you out of your holdings.
Unless they want to see dumpster diving rise to become the the new western world top sport followed by a extreme leftist revolution…they will print.

Always remember the people in charge need the printing and benefit from it. Ignore what they say…
The market will reflect back on Powell’s remarks as being a massive contrary indicator. They got a hike or two left in them at most and they will be smaller.. 5% will completely unwind the financial system.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 3
Having $30T of #debt (us gov) means each 1% increase ultimately adds $300b to the yearly interest expense. So ~3.3% rise in rates adds $1T of interest. US Gov already runs >$1T and when they trigger another recession it will be $2T in a hurry as #tax revenue falls
#Powell and the #fomc are bullshit boogeymen to people that understand the reality of the situation. They will print and print and print, because they must. Trillions of new dollars flooding into the real economy each year. The fomc will continue to grow its balance sheet
Ignore the noise and short term vol when these guys speak. Empty words. They are in a box and we all know what they will do to avoid bank failures and cascading debt defaults. They are cruelly shaking the tree and punishing the most vulnerable amongst us.
Read 5 tweets

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