Thread by @rerutled

This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022

Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.

In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House.

Another "Leans GOP" seat just flipped to the Democrats -- #IA03

That's 4 GOP seats have flipped to Dems, w 6 leaning to Dems, while only 1 Dem seat flipped to the GOP, with 6 leaning GOP.

The Democrats look poised to take the US House.
#Election2022 #Midterms2022

.@bernardclee Pointed out MT-01 wasn't flipped to Dems, and it's still leaning GOP. Thank you for the correction.

Updated, of "Toss Up" and "Lean" Seats:
GOP held seats: 4 flipped to Dems, 6 lean to Dems
DEM held seats: 1 flipped to GOP, 5 lean to GOP.

AP just called the "Lean Dem" seat #MI08 for the Democrat.

GOP seats: 4 flipped to Dems, 6 lean Dem
Dem seats: 1 flipped to GOP, 5 lean GOP.

This still looks to me like the Democrats win the US House elections. #Election2022 #Midterms2022

Again, I'm seeing more Blue taking over the GOP held seats, than I'm seeing Red taking over the Dem held seats.

From here, it looks like the Democrats are on their way to win the US House of Representatives.
#Election2022 #Midterms2022 #Election

11:30am Update - US House

Of GOP held seats: 4 flipped to Dems, 5 more lean Dem.
Of Dem held seats: 1 flipped to GOP, 6 lean GOP.

Freeze these results, and Democrats GAIN +3 seats in this elxn.

The Dems are poised to win the US House of Reps. #election #Election2022 #House

In counting these seat above, I made an error, the result of which is that I undercounted the net number of seats that were presumed flipped from Dems to GOP by the Cook Report.

I regret this error enormously.

Explanation and corrected tally follows.

Specifically, and for example - see "IL-13 Open"? I mistakenly counted that as a previous Dem seat. I should have counted that as a previous Rep seat, rated by Cook as a "Lean Dem". The net effect of this is substantial to my tally: I move net 8 seats into the GOP column.

This is the new tally. If all results are frozen right now, the GOP wins the house 218 vs 217.

But right now, there are still 16 "Likely" "Lean" and "Toss up" (LLT) Dem seats undecided; and 12 LLT GOP seats undecided.

Here is the state of open "LIkely/Lean/Toss up" seats at 6:30pm Wed. Dark colors have been called by AP/NYTimes, light colors have not been called and show the current vote count result.

Frozen here, the count is 217 Dems, 218 GOP, and the GOP would win the House.

Thursday 7:00am Update.

If vote counting stopped now (with 25 contested races still undecided) , GOP would win the House, 219-216.

If the Democrats are to win the House, then at least two of these currently presumed but contested GOP seats must flip to the Democrats:

#AZ02 #AZ06 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 #MD06 #MT01 #NY22 #OR05 #CA03 #CA40.

There's no path to a Dem Victory without that.

10:45 Thurs updates. Two races called by AP: #NM02 (for Vasquez - Dem), #MT01 (for Zinke - GOP). These are already in the model producing a 219-216 victory for the GOP.

The best bet for Dems, is they must win at least 2 of the following 4 races: #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 or #NY22.

More difficult, but still helpful, would be if Dems win at least 2 (other than the above) of the following: #AZ02, #AZ06 #CA45 #OR05 #CA03 #CA40 #MD06

#Election #Midterms2022results

Every one of those races is currently leaning GOP. They would result in a 219-216 GOP victory on the US House for this election.

This is why at least 2 of them must tick over to the Dems, in order for the Dems to win the US House 218-217.

#Election #Midterms2022results

Control of the US House of Reps 1:30am Friday Update

At the current vote counts, GOP wins control of the house 220-215.

For the Democrats to win control, they must win at least 3 of:

#AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 #CO03 #MD06 #NY22 #0R05

A narrow window.

Control of the US House of Reps 12:00pm Friday Update

At current vote counts, GOP wins control, 220-215.

For Dems to win, they must win at least 3 of:

#AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 #CO03 #MD06 #NY22 #0R05

Some are close; all currently favor the GOP.

UPDATE 2:30pm Friday: A "lean GOP" race has flipped!

#MD06 has been called by AP for Krone (D), dropping the vote count from GOP 220-215 Dem, to GOP 219-216 Dem!

For Dems to win control, they must win at least 2 of:

#AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22 #0R05

UPDATE 9:00pm Friday, US House control. Three 'light blue' seats called Dem by AP: #NV01 #NV03 #NV04

The House continues to be GOP 219-216 Dem.

For Dems to win control, they must win at least 2 of:

#AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22 #0R05

The Cook Partisan Voting Index for these districts:

#AZ06 R+3
#CA03 R+4
#CA13 D+4
#CA22 D+5
#CA27 D+5
#CA45 D+2
#CO03 R+7 (Boebert)
#NY22 D+1
#0R05 D+2

All 'lean Republican' in the current (unfinished) vote count.