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Nov 9 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
The #Russian Ministry of Defense has reportedly agreed to and ordered the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Western side of the #Dnieper River, including the city of #Kherson and the #KhersonRegion under current Russian control.

t.me/rian_ru/184901

1/X
The withdrawal will reportedly take place "in the near future" and in conjunction with a phased retreat, including the destruction of bridges and port facilities on the western side of the river.

t.me/rian_ru/184902

2/
This now opens up the potential for a phased retreat-to--defense which may involve the integration of long range fires to compensate for territorial loss, and to maintain pressure on advancing #Ukrainian forces.

3/
It is not clear the pace of retreat, or how the AFU will take advantage the reported withdrawal.

Regardless, the ramifications of Russia losing the city of Kherson are expected to be enormous. That may be manifesting as a political reality as well:

4/
Should Kherson be completely re-captured in the coming days, it will likely represent most consequential victory for Ukraine since the battle of Kyiv, and will certainly signal its ability to continue effective operations in the long-term.

5/
Russia will continue to promulgate a narrative to deflect blame/dissent because of a withdrawal, but that may not be enough to alleviate the political pressure the loss of Kherson represents for the invasion project.

6/
t.me/rian_ru/184907
The reporting of Surovikin to Shoigu on the situation in Kherson, and the agreement to withdrawal Russian forces to the eastern side of the river.

This appears to be a MoD decision directly, of which the political maneuvering here may be of interest.

7/
8/
Understandably, there is caution based on previous events where Russian forces and communications methods deliberately obfuscate the truth.

The extent of withdrawal can only be clear when Ukrainian forces actually begin moving in #Kherson at pace.

9/

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More from @osint_east

| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 12
A few comments. Constructive discussion only, please.

First, Nazi symbology in the war has been a constant. This includes both Ukrainian and Russian forces which have displayed it in some capacity.

⬇️ AFU-worn patch, 36th WG Div. SS

1/
Second, an elemental fact is that there are neo-Nazi factions in the Ukrainian and Russian armies. The quoted thread actually highlights Nazi symbology across several AFU units.

The reasons for this are, understandably, complicated. Just a few points to expand on that.

2/
There are strong-beds of ultranationalism and ethnonationalism across Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, and in Russia.

This includes nationalist anti-democratic outfits, anarchists, and also those whose origins or ideological premises derive from, or interpret, Nazism.

3/
Read 10 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 11
Apparently #Russian TG channels are backtracking on earlier counter-claims, and now report that the #AntonovskyBridge and bridges across the Kakhovka dam have been destroyed.

Rus. TG channels are erratic the past 8 hours—it's just unclear what is true.

t.me/RVvoenkor/31582 Image
To make this even more confusing, the counter-counter-claim is that Russian forces *themselves* blew up the bridge on their retreat (note this is not logical since it could serve as a route of escape for soldiers on foot).

t.me/swodki/189201 Image
FYI one of the earlier reports of the bridge being destroyed came around 17:15 EST.

It looks like this one moved around the information sphere a few hours before reappearing.

#antonovskybridge #Kherson

t.me/mig41/22118 Image
Read 7 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 10
Interestingly #Russian sources are now trading the same talking points across high-profile channels, disputing several claims:

1) Video of boat sounds not real
2) 20,000 RAF soldiers not trapped
3) AFU entering city premature

t.me/swodki/189126
t.me/boris_rozhin/6… Image
They are equally frustrated by what seems to be a "cheated outcome" where a "corridor" granted by the Americans was not honored by the #Ukrainians .

t.me/swodki/189127 Image
It is very clear that the rapid spread of conflicting information is seeping into individual unit cohesion. Here is an attempt to tamp down the current claims.

t.me/swodki/189128 Image
Read 16 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 10
I really try and stray away from wading into vapid threads here, but there's something I want to point out that I find incredibly frustrating with ChuckPfarrer .

First, many said "twit-idiots" engaged in a thorough process to investigate the origins of the blast.

#OSINT

1/12
A great example is @OAlexanderDK thread which took into account various elements of the attack. The main point I want to drive here is that Oliver made the effort to arrive at a best-judgement hypothesis, and based on the available evidence.

2/
Even I don't fully conclude it was a VBIED—not because I don't believe it happened—but because outcomes can only as conclusive based on available evidence. I leave open the possibility of other outcomes even if they are highly unlikely. It's called a hypothesis for a reason.

3/
Read 12 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 9
Just a note: it will most certainly not be hours. The Russians (having weeks to plan) have likely turned the city into a giant booby trap.

Moreover, they likely have artillery (now unreachable on the eastern bank) zeroed in on dozens, and perhaps hundreds, of coordinates.

1/
A serious Russian retrograde strategy will be to make the recapture of Kherson as costly as possible for the AFU (in the short and long-term), even if Russian forces are not physically present in the city.

2/2
+1

Implication of such potential for the city to be booby trapped seem well-understood by the AFU and Ukrainian government.

An aggressive AFU push will be tempered by this reality.

Read 4 tweets
| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 6
The Battle for Kherson

What is known, what is not known, and how the next few weeks could shape the war for the next six months.

#ukrainerussianwar #kherson #ukraine #russia

PART ONE — "Shaping the Field"

1/26 Russian soldiers prepare for the invasion of Ukraine in Armi
The fall of Kherson was a significant #Russian military and political victory. Kherson is critical to Russian maximalist aims; its claims of Russian cultural repatriation in Ukraine; and is central to the #Novorossiya concept (contemporarily the Transnistrian land bridge).

2/ An Mi-24 flies over a Russian column on the eve of the invasServicemen ride on a Russian Army military armoured vehicle Russian soldiers guarding the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power PFILE - A Russian serviceman patrols a street in Kherson, ami
The capture of Kherson (city and ex-urban areas) by March 2 illustrated two key features of the Kherson AO:

1) Russia's capacity to penetrate fronts rapidly with motorized & mechanized elements.

2) Ukraine's partial and over-extended defensive capabilities in the region.

3/
Read 27 tweets

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