ISW Profile picture
Nov 10 5 tweets 3 min read
The Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the #Dnipro is unlikely to be a trap meant to lure Ukrainian troops into costly combat near #Kherson City, as some Ukrainian and Western sources have suggested.
2/ @TheStudyofWar has previously observed many indicators that Russian forces, military and economic assets, and occupation elements have steadily withdrawn from the west bank across the #Dnipro River...
...and Russian officials have been anticipating and preparing for withdrawal in a way that is incompatible with a campaign to deceive and trap Ukrainian troops.
3/ Russian commanders will certainly attempt to slow Ukrainian advances to maintain an orderly withdrawal, and some forces may remain to delay Ukrainian troops in #Kherson City itself...
...but this fighting will be a means to the end of withdrawing as many Russian units as possible in good order.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Nov 11
🧵#Ukraine has the initiative and is securing a major victory in #Kherson. The coming months are a window of opportunity for Ukraine to expand its gains and prevent #Russia from consolidating its defenses, which a ceasefire would let Moscow do.
2/ A ceasefire would provide the #Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces, & fighting in #Ukraine will not halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.
3/ Autumn and springtime mud can slow or halt military advances, as can faulty or insufficient wintertime equipment. Some equipment may need to be adapted for colder weather, and shortages of equipment/ammo could slow advances due to logistical difficulties — not winter weather.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 11
#Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in #Kherson Oblast on November 10 as #Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the #Dnipro River. ImageImageImageImage
2/ The #Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout #Kherson Oblast as #Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.
3/ ISW does not assess the fighting in #Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10
The battle of #Kherson is not over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase—prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely. /1
2/ The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the #Kherson direction since August—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw across the #Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded.
3/ As @TheStudyofWar has observed over the previous months, Ukrainian forces engaged in a purposeful and well-executed campaign to target Russian concentration areas, military assets, and logistics nodes throughout #Kherson Oblast...
Read 8 tweets
Nov 9
.@SkyNews reported on November 8 that #Russia flew 140M euros, a selection of captured NLAW and Javelin anti-tank missiles, and a Stinger anti-aircraft missile to #Tehran on August 20 in exchange for 160 additional Shahed-136 drones for use in #Ukraine.…
2/ Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 8 that Tehran continues to supply Moscow with Mohajer, Arash, and Shahed-type drones by air and sea via both Iranian state-owned and privately-owned entities.
3/ The Ukrainian Resistance Center additionally reported that due to failures of the Russian military-industrial complex, Russian military leaders are continuing their efforts to procure dual-use (military and non-military use) goods such as...
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
Nour announced Patrushev’s arrival in an English-language tweet, stating that Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani invited him and noted that he will also meet with other high-ranking Iranian officials to discuss Russo-Iranian cooperation. /1
2/ Nour is affiliated with the SNSC. The SNSC likely announced Patrushev’s arrival in #Iran to highlight the deepening cooperation between #Moscow & #Tehran to an international audience and to highlight that a high-ranking Russian official turned to Iran for help in #Ukraine.
3/ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani notably traveled to #Moscow in 2015 to appeal to Russia to intervene in the Syrian Civil War.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8
Russian occupation authorities are likely beginning a new phase of evacuations from #Kherson Oblast.

Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov stated that November 7 will be the last day of organized evacuations from the west bank of the #Dnipro River. Image
2/ A Russian milblogger similarly noted that November 7 is the end of centralized evacuations in #Kherson Oblast and that private evacuates will continue from November 8.
3/ Russian sources reported that the last boat transporting civilians from #Kherson City to the east bank of the #Dnipro departed on November 8 due to concerns of “increased threats to the civilian population."
Read 5 tweets

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