Thread by @JBelcourt73

So maybe #Russia is going to retreat from Kherson. Assuming they are, they have some issues that I hope the #Ukrainians can cash in on. When the #Russian's retreated from #Kyiv they were able to do it in fairly good-ish order. #Ukraine was still lacking in artillery and most of

her forces were still in the JFO area of the Donbass. At the same time much of Russia's initial combat power was still intact. Mud was the biggest issue. They we get to Kharkiv. That was a rout and had Ukraine had a western style army with all the bells and whistles that retreat

would not have ended short of the Russian border or Black Sea Coast. Now with even less combat pwoer than in Kharkiv, with an army that has been gutted by loss, infected with malcontent mobliks, abandoned by its officers the Russian army is supposed to cross a massive river at

several points relying on other Russian units to stand and fight and cover their back in what is effectively a suicide mission. Very rarely does an army trying to retreat across a water obstacle get everyone out. Case in point: Dunkirk. Yes the British managed to evacuate a

force of 338k allied troops but had to abandon its equipment and it only managed to do that because the French Army was willing to stand and die to let it happen, the troops being pulled out were still troops, they had not become a mob, and the German's paused. Anyone think the

situations are evenly remotely similar? The Russian's only need to go 1/20th the distance with 1/8th the troops but they deliberately sank all the small craft, have no real leadership to make a Leonidas type stand and the Ukrainians are not going to pause. The Ukrainians can't

pause. Not until the dam at #Kakhovka dam is secured. Russian plans are pretty self evident if they really do want to retreat. Get across the river, blow the dam freezing that part of the front until mid-spring or later in 2023 and use the flood and the mud barrier to allow them

shift troops to other sectors of the front. If Ukraine can take the dam before the Russian's can get out the Russian's will still have a smaller frontage to cover but they can't completely denude it of troops because the ground will be passable sooner and the threat of a breakout

can't be ignored. Plus it would give the Ukrainians options: drive to the sea, head for #Zaporizhzia up the East bank of the river towards the other crown jewel in Russian hands the #ZaporizhzhiaNPP. Plus once the dam is taken, the Ukrainians will be able to benefit of economy of

force. Right now they need to press on two axis: against the city and against the dam. Once the dam is secured, they can concentrate power on the city and force its capitulation by having enough artillery to make evacuation with equipment impossible. Now obviously I don't think

like a modern Russian, at least not to this point but assuming the Russian's have cracked their own text books open they will have what remains of their most effective combat units defending the dam. They have to hold it to have any chance of success with the retreat. So the

fight won't be easy, but it adds the tertiary benefit of removing more effective Russian units vs just bagging conscripts. The downside is expect to see more burning candles and RIP messages here on Twitter as Ukrainians learn that someone near and dear to them has been killed.

Offer them your condolences and if you can make a donation in the name of some fallen hero you see on twitter. @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps, @3xR_team.. so many worthwhile charities to give to in remembrance of someone you did not know, but who died for people he did

he did not know. War sucks, there is going to be a lot of dying going on in maximum speed mode until this part of the war is over. We want, nay need that dying to be done mostly by Russian invaders. Putin's power to wage wars against peace to commit the crimes of aggression and

the #GenocideOfUkrainians must be broken. To stay up to date on the battle visit the @MriyaReport or visited trusted sources. Speaking of trusted sources... @ChuckPfarrer: Gaius Julius Ceasar, Gaius Julius Ceasar (Octavian/Agustus), Sulla, Marius, Severus, Constantine no not

@Teoyaomiquu, Marcus Aurelius.... You forgot Rome last night. I always enjoy listening to and learning from you. Speaking of ancient emperors... Guess who is not going down in the history books as a military mastermind? If you guess Putin: winner-winner chicken dinner. #NAFO is

going to have a field day bonking his trolls and lackeys now that he has been forced to make another "goodwill gesture" Will you consider joining and becoming a #FELLA? It helps support the @georgian_legion who is going to be part of the unfolding fight. Oh one last missive, this

retreat seems to have been timed to the election results. Putin was counting on nutters winning. Prigozhin couldn't take #Bahkmut and he couldn't secure an election result. Solid Ukraine supporters like @JohnBoozman and @RepFrenchHill cruised to easy victories and they and other

supporters like @SenTomCotton will continue to make sure Putin's dreams of empire get continuously smashed as we send Ukraine what Ukraine Needs To Win On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #RussiaIsATerroristState @mfa_russia <--- still losing, and learn how to swim.