Thread by @JBelcourt73

So how many Russian troops got out of Kherson? We probably won't know the truth for a long time if ever. What we do know is that not every Russian sent to that side of the River made it out. Its more likely than not that the Russian's lost thousands of men in the battle for the

Kherson Pocket... and it was a pocket battle. Bridgeheads that don't expand often end up dying. Sometimes defenders with logistics lines dominated by enemy artillery find a way to win. Look at the French with the Sacred Road at Verdun. But usually, interdicted supply lines mean

the defender is going to lose. We will have an idea of just how good or bad the retreat was based on the amount of captured equipment if such is revealed. If far easier to get a man across a river than a truck let alone a tank or SPG. Now just because we don't know, does not

mean Ukraine does not know. Between ISR assets and partisan/SOF teams, and POW's Ukraine probably has the clearest picture, even better than Russia. That picture, plus what they know of Russian defense son the South bank is going to determine what Ukraine does next. Is the South

bank almost devoid of troops? That could mean a lot from the Russian's don't intend to make a stand there because the terrain and Ukrainian artillery dominance does not favor the defender, too the still plan/ or had planned to flood the area and create a mud barrier so they could

gain space and time to reorganize units and try and salvage some combat power for use elsewhere. On the flip side a heavy defensive presence may indicate that Russia thinks she has to stand and fight to defend the canal supplying Crimea, missile access to Odessa, keep as much

enemy artillery as possible away from Crimea etc... Then there is the question, can Ukraine even jump the river? You will get some pundits saying yes, some saying no. A Russian (English language) military forum I scroll from time to time is full of Kleptogradian wanna bees who

swear the answer is no. That Russia is too strong, the river too wide blah blah blah. On the flip side, people infected with victory disease may think jumping the river may be a simple matter of doing X or Y discounting what the Russian's or circumstance might intervene with. The

truth again is the Ukrainians will find a way to do what they must. Maybe they think they must jump the river to achieve X, Y, or Z. Maybe they have other plans in other areas, maybe they want the Russians to be focused on an apparent plan to jump the river while missing actual

Ukrainian efforts elsewhere (Maskirovka). There are some juicy targets South and East of the river, but there are also juicy targets that don't require an opposed crossing. Time will tell. The safe bet at this point in the war is that Ukraine is not sitting around wondering

what's next but began planning the "next" before the "now" even culminated. The recent US announcement that the latest round of aid has even more cold weather gear does indicate that winter in Eastern Ukraine is likely to be lethally hot not cold. Given what we have seen of the

mobliks, from lack of training to lack of modern kit a winter war is not going to be fun for the Russians. Opening our storehouses to Ukraine is something I fully support and have supported with daily messages to my elected leaders @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill.

keeping those supplies flowing over the winter will require more such messages from as many people to as many leaders as possible. Russia is going to use every means at its disposal to try and gain either a negotiated end to the fighting or at least a cessation of the supply

lines leading to a frozen conflict, both of which amount to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for Ukraine and a "win" for Russia since she will end up with more than she started with and millions will remain disappeared into Russia. It will also leave Putin in power and

thus free to continue being a malignant force in the world. Russia must be pushed back and pushed out. The minimum in my mind would be to the Feb 24 start lines. Let me be clear, I think all of Ukraine should be liberated, but Putin having no gains what-so-ever is how you set the

the stage for him to develop a short, brutal and fatal case of either high velocity cerebral hemorrhage or windowus gravititus... Once he exits stage right real negotiations can begin since the ego of a mad man will be removed from the equation. Plus without Putin at the helm the

whole house of cards that is post-Soviet Russia may come crashing down. So bonk away dear friends, #FELLAS and Ukraine supports in general must counter the negotiation narrative unless and until @ZelenskyyUa says it is Ukraine's desire. Speaking or Ukraine

supporters. Normally I ask you to donate to charities like what ever @Teoyaomiquu is doing @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps or @3xR_team. I am going to add another one to that list. The Kastus Kalinouski Regiment of Free Belarussians @belwarriors like the @georgian_legion

hail from a land corrupted by Putin and refused to stand by while a #genocideofUkrainains was unleashed by #RussiaIsATerroristState. They are not as famous as the Wolves fed by #NAFO but they are deserving of your support. When Ukraine has won, it will be their turn to liberate

Belarus and end their people's vassaldom to Kleptograd. Kick them what you can and stay informed. Ya'll know my go to is @MriyaReport and hopefully the twitter pox going around will be resolved soon. If however it gets worse they have a back up via the mriyareport.org

Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! #UkraineWillWin #RussiaIsLosing #UkraineConflict #KhersonisUkraine #Kherson @mfa_russia <--- still losing and What Kherson Doing?