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Nov 14 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Riverside County's Sunday night update delivers another strong batch for #CA41 Republican incumbent Ken Calvert, the 16,868 votes breaking 55.8%/44.2% for the Republican and boosting him into a 4,066-vote lead of 2.52%.
Calvert's vote share in the five #CA41 updates since election night:

11/10am 63.62% (net +10,077)
11/10pm 60.38% (+832)
11/11 51.55% (+313)
11/12 51.55% (+510)
11/13 55.81% (+1,958)
(the post-election day returns in the CA41 top two primary followed a similar pattern). Image

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More from @rpyers

Rob Pyers Profile picture
Nov 13
Thought I'd go back and do a 'where are they now' followup on the targeted House races that saw the most general election independent expenditures.

(Sorted by Rep/Dem spending advantage, and overall) ImageImage
The next challenge will be to add in the individual candidate spending to see how much that alters the calculus.
And now a look at how the results sort out when the candidate spending gets added into the mix with the independent expenditures. Image
Read 4 tweets
Rob Pyers Profile picture
Nov 13
Now that the 2024 election season is upon us, prepare for a deluge of fake FEC filings.

Today, we have a presidential committee filing for former Trump National Security Adviser HR McMaster.

Among the telltale signs that this isn't a legitimate filing:

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/… Image
-dodgy email address
-PAC registered as a corporate committee, not candidate committee
docquery.fec.gov/pdf/271/202211… Image
-unusual items listed in the 'connected organization' fields... Image
Read 4 tweets
Rob Pyers Profile picture
Nov 4
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
Rob Pyers Profile picture
Nov 3
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220
Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544
Read 6 tweets
Rob Pyers Profile picture
Nov 2
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779
Read 4 tweets
Rob Pyers Profile picture
Nov 1
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67. ImageImageImage
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Today's DCCC buys (1/2)

#CA22 $1,142,098
#NV03 $1,094,710
#ME02 $932,408
#CA49 $880,015
#PA08 $739,586
#IL17 $553,515
#OH13 $505,750
#CT05 $486,503
#PA17 $368,367
#NV04 $333,393
#NE02 $201,976
#NY17 $112,517
#VA07 $108,368
#TX28 $93,997
#NH01 $90,100
#OH01 $79,700
#NY04 $71,000
Read 4 tweets

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