Maybe another word on the '#unredacted Fauci emails', now that it is clear that there were no cover-ups or suppression of #lableak, but just neutral #scientific discussion.

Observe how lableak advocates will run their #disinformation playbook, we've seen this before.

A 🧵

1/
Everytime new contradictory information (to the lableak conspiracy myth) comes out, there is an increase in #activity by lableak advocates.

We've seen this with the BANAL sequences in LAOS that proved that the RBD domain of SARS-CoV-2 was not 'manmade'
2/
We've seen this in response to 2 scientific papers that establish the Huanan market as the center & start of the pandemic.

(Worth re-reading this thread too)


3/
We've seen this just a month ago when a report from zoonotic disease experts came out, explaining the prevalence and danger of #zoonotic jumps & evaluating the scientific literature with respect to lableak, finding no credible evidence (like all before)
4/
This has been ongoing for a long time.

I could have talked about the 'HIV hybrid', 'fake pangolin sequences', 'RATG13', or the WHO mission, or the US intelligence report, all contradicting previously advanced #talking points by lableakers, causing them to shift #goalposts.
5/
But I am more interested in the #patterns of that reaction, the transition from first claiming #vindication, to then #confusion, wild guess #panic, & finally #solidification of new false belief, because it is predictive of what is going to happen next with the 'Fauci emails'
6/
Like we've seen before, this has not been our first Rodeo with the lableak cottage industry, and so far I have mapped out roughly 6 steps how the #conspiracy prone will act to integrate #contradictory information into yet just more reason to believe they were right all along.

7/
Step one and two is of course what some have seen already today; premature claims of vindication, often coupled with some out-of-context pick or plain lie.

See here:

8/
The 'smarter ones' like Dr. Ebright & Dr. Chan are already at step 3, denying and deceiving about the content of the information (and the fact it overwhelmingly disproved claims they've made for years).

9/

See here:
Step 4 will slowly start taking place soon, because the obvious 'lack of smoking guns' has to be somewhat explained. So Dr. Chan decided to advance the 'what if there are more #hidden emails that actually contain the smoking guns' #hypothesis; others will be sure to follow

10/
Now step 5 is more of a chaotic process, and this can take a few weeks usually.

Expect many lableak advocates to start advancing new theories to explain the 'lack of smoking guns' in the Fauci emails. '#Deeper cover-up', 'hidden #admissions', 'what about WIV #funding' etc.

11/
The interesting part about step 5 is that it will be basically 'market-tested', live here on #social media. Whatever #alternative theory does best on attention/engagement will win out and become new canon.

This is fascinating because that means there is a #feedback loop that
12/
inputs user sentiments into #shaping the conspiracy #myth.

That is why we have seen (over the years) the myth shift more and more to fit the narrative needs of it's audience. It explains why the myth has become more US-centric, more #absurd, more right-wing & more #radical.

13/
Step 6 forms then the conclusion; from the new #twist on the old conspiracy #myth, new talking points can be generated that will play well with the targeted conspiratorial audience & subservient rightwing media.

That new myth will last only until new evidence arises again
14/
So this is my #prediction what will happen after the 'Fauci emails':

A more radical myth with more fevered true believers will emerge, and they will continue to keep the myth alive for much longer, while the lableak hypothesis is long dead in the water

protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-tw…

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More from @PhilippMarkolin

Nov 24
I've written a bit about this Musk Twitter thing from a system's perspective, and this here 🔽 is a clear signal for what I deem one of the likely outcomes.

System disintegration into smaller subsystems.

Twitter will become smaller, weaker & probably align itself with
1/
other ecosystems to hold info power.

If you are in the EU (+adjacent), expect Twitter to be gone sooner rather than later and live with an alternative that will be more European and less global.

If you are in the US (+adjacent), expect Twitter to stay but transform.
2/
For the US, @davetroy has laid out some suggestions (which I do not fully endorse but can see going in that direction) how a Musk Twitter might look like & be used to further the interests of a very specific network and thought ecosystem.

For the EU, Twitter competitors will
3/
Read 6 tweets
Nov 24
First, kudos to the Chinese authors doing this work & a shoutout to @edwardcholmes also involved

I already flagged this Wang et al. preprint yesterday but it is worth explaining its significance to both the #origins discussion and the related pandemic #prevention discussion

A🧵
First: Origins

One thing that goes often down in all the noise surrounding #lableak is the fact that SARS-CoV-2, and actually all CoVs, possess #mosaic genomes.

This is because CoVs evolve not only through mutation but also through exchanging genetic elements with other CoVs
2/
This exchange is called '#recombination'.

One can imagine CoV genomes like colorful Lego brick walls, and recombination as taking one brick from a different virus and putting it in the wall of another; changing the color while keeping roughly the function.
3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 23
Unredacted 'Fauci emails' proving no scientists had any idea about the virus and no inclination of any cover-up, quite the opposite actually, they investigated thoroughly the idea of a #lableak.

Lableakers: WHERE ARE THE HIDDEN EMAILS WHERE THEY DO THE COVERUP STUFF? 🙄🙄
I hope this will be a lesson to many in the media who extended a lot of false goodwill to the fantasies of rank #conspiracists over the statements of professional virologists just doing their work.

The fact that they double down after being proven wrong is just 🚩🚩🚩
As I said previously, and repeatedly, there is no place in polite society for people who profit from #lies, who push harmful conspiracy myths that expose scientists to harassment, threats, and #stochastic terrorism

Any journalist who still decides to #amplify them is accountable
Read 9 tweets
Nov 22
Discussions about #FreeSpeech are misguided in the information age.

Even before our voices are drowned out by the noise on social media, or overwritten by information combatants, we lose our agency and decision autonomy to manipulative complex systems we don’t fully understand.
The whole point of the #enlightenment, the scientific revolution, our educational and #epistemic institutions was to empower individuals to find a way out of their self-imposed #immaturity, to take #agency over their lives and make informed decisions.
We need #epistemic clarity about reality, for without it, our agency will be blunted & our freedom a charade

It is public-interest education, journalism & science that truly make individuals in a #democratic society free, not the right to cast a vote or to elect a representative
Read 12 tweets
Nov 19
I think many people do not conceptualize properly how Musks actions will manifest and alter Twitter, occupying opposing sites between 'nothing gonna change at the core' to 'everything will break down eventually'.

Both views are insufficient to understand what is happening.
1/
Musk's actions can be seen as perturbations to a self-organized system that evolved around a set of rules & environmental restrictions. This complex system has adapted itself against competing social media systems and showed a certain robustness & stability to a changing world
2/
Musk's strong perturbations threw the system out of equilibrium, and as long as they persist, will keep pushing the system further and further away from it, until one of two things happen.
A) new equilibrium is found
B) disintegration of the whole into smaller subsystems

3/
Read 11 tweets
Nov 17
The saddest part about the repeated harassment of scientists by conspiracy theorists, influencers and information combatants is that it is not a new phenomenon, but a well established tactic.

What's new is that the information age made it a crowd-sourced project. But why?
1/ Image
The uncertainty of the pandemic brought a variety of scientists to the forefront of society; virologists, epidemiologists, vaccine researchers, and doctors were in demand and many did the best they could to explain, advise and help society navigate the pandemic.

2/
This newfound power and authority of science over parts of societal decision-making did not go down well with more traditional power-holders, from influencers to businesses to politicians.

To re-assert influence, they discredit science e.g through the use of conspiracy myths

3/
Read 7 tweets

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