Thread by @TheStudyofWar

23 NOV Assessment🧵

The #Kremlin has not backed down from its maximalist goals of regaining control of #Ukraine but is rather partially obfuscating #Russia’s aims to mislead Western countries into pressuring Ukraine to sue for peace. isw.pub/UkrWar112322

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1595600451168505856

2/ #Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on November 21 that changing the current government in #Ukraine is not a goal of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine, observing that Russian President Vladimir #Putin “has already spoken about this.”

3/ #Putin said on 26 OCT that #Ukraine has “lost its sovereignty” and come fully under NATO’s control. He again rejected Ukraine’s sovereignty on 27 OCT, saying #Russia “created” Ukraine and that the “single real guarantee of Ukrainian sovereignty” can only be Russia.

4/ #Putin has also consistently upheld his talking point that #Ukraine is a Nazi state that must be “denazified.” Putin’s demands amount to a requirement for regime change in #Kyiv even if he does not explicitly call for it in these recent statements.

5/ The fact that Peskov refers back to these comments by #Putin makes reading any serious walking-back of Russian aims into Peskov’s comments highly dubious.

6/ The #Kremlin’s obfuscation of its aims likely intended for a Western audience is nevertheless confusing Russian war supporters.

7/ Peskov’s statement likely aimed to mitigate the effects of Vice-Speaker of the Russian Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev’s pro-war rant declaring that #Russia can only normalize relations with #Ukraine following the capitulation of the Ukrainian government.

8/ The two contrasting statements confused the pro-war community. A #Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger sarcastically observed that #Russia is aimlessly fighting a war without a clear goal in response to Peskov’s statement.

9/ @TheStudyofWar has reported on similar reactions to the Kremlin’s decision to exchange Ukrainian prisoners of war from Mariupol, whom Kremlin officials and propagandists vilified as “Nazis” and ”war criminals.”

10/ The #Kremlin’s hesitance to publicly commit fully to an extreme nationalist ideology and to the war is also bewildering propagandists who preach such ideology to the Russian masses.

11/ Russian political and military “experts” on a Russian state TV show pushed back against Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov’s claim that #Kherson Oblast is fully Russian, which would justify the use of nuclear weapons.

12/ The “experts” said that the use of nuclear weapons to defend territory that is not fully occupied is irrational and even said that NATO poses no threat to #Russia.

13/ Russian propagandists have been making outlandish nuclear threats & accusing NATO of planning to attack Russia throughout Putin’s regime and especially before and during the invasion of Ukraine; such dismissal of common Kremlin talking points in such a forum is unprecedented.

14/ @TheStudyofWar has also previously reported that Russian extreme nationalist ideologist Alexander Dugin accused Putin of not fully committing to the pro-war ideology.

15/ #Putin has generally sought to balance extreme nationalist talking points to gather support from the nationalist-leaning community and a more moderate narrative to maintain the support of the rest of the Russian population.

16/ Russian military failures & the sacrifices #Putin is demanding of the Russian people to continue his disastrous war are bringing his deliberate obfuscation of war aims into sharp relief, potentially fueling discontent within critical constituencies. isw.pub/UkrWar112322

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