Thread by @virtaava

What Russia will do in #cyberspace in #Ukraine and potentially in Europe, #Microsoft's thoughts and estimates.

Some highlights from the article:

What has already been done: "Cyberattacks on Ukrainian and now foreign-based supply chains, and cyber-enabled influence operations—intended to undermine #US, #EU, and #NATO political support for Ukraine.

Russian military operators also expanded destructive cyberactivity outside Ukraine to #Poland, a critical logistics hub, in a possible attempt to disrupt the movement of weapons and supplies to the front."

What is to come: "Russian propaganda seeks to amplify the intensity of popular dissent over energy and inflation across Europe by boosting select narratives online through state-affiliated media outlets and social media accounts to undermine elected officials and democratic…

…institutions.

world should be prepared for several lines of potential Russian attack in the digital domain over the course of this winter. First, we can expect a continuation of Russia’s #cyber offensive against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

We should also be prepared for the possibility that Russian military intelligence actors’ recent execution of a ransomware-style attack—known as #Prestige—in Poland may be a harbinger of Russia further extending #cyberattacks beyond the borders of Ukraine.

Such cyber operations may target those countries and companies that are providing Ukraine with vital supply chains of aid and weaponry this winter.

Second, we should also be prepared for cyber-enabled influence operations that target Europe to be conducted in parallel with cyber threat activity.

Russia will seek to exploit cracks in popular support for Ukraine to undermine coalitions essential to Ukraine’s resilience, hoping to impair the humanitarian and military aid flowing to the region.

In the coming months, European nations will likely be subjected to a range of influence techniques tailored to their populations’ concerns about energy prices and inflation more broadly.

Russia has and will likely continue to focus these campaigns on Germany, a country critical for maintaining Europe’s unity and home to a large Russian diaspora, seeking to nudge popular and elite consensus toward a path favorable to the Kremlin."
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/…