Ted Darling Profile picture
Dec 9 11 tweets 4 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +0.25%
$GBP -0.41%
$GOLD -0.48%

$TLT +1.94%
$TNX -0.43%
$HYG -0.69%

$SSEC +1.62%
$NIKK +0.44%
$DAX -1.82%
$SPX -2.65%

$COPPER +0.78%
#Bitcoin +0.77%
$SILVER +0.00%
$DBA -1.01%
$NATGAS -5.1%
$WTIC -10.65%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closes the week on an ↗️🎵

$NIKK 27901 +1.2%
$SSEC 3207 +0.3%
$TWII 14705 +1.05%
$HSI 19901 +2.3%
$KOSPI 2389 +0.76%
$IDX 6715 -1.3% 🇮🇩

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7213 +0.55%

India ↘️
$BSE 61977 -0.95%
Europe trading ↔️

$DAX 14295 +0.2%
$FTSE 7476 +0.05%
$CAC 6646 unch
$AEX 722 +0.2%
$IBEX 8243 +0.2%
$MIB 24203 unch
$SMI 11022 +0.15%
$MOEX 2170 -0.2%

$VSTOXX 21.78

$DAX range = 14094 - 14576 ♉️
🇺🇸 futures firm ↗️ ahead of #PPI

$ES 3972 +0.2%
$NQ 11675 +0.3%
$RTY 1814 unch

$VIX 22.61

$SPX range = 3898 - 4078 🐻
$IWM range = 179 - 189 🐻
$VIX range = 19.09 - 23.93 ↔️
GOLD ↔️ with metals mostly ↘️

$GOLD 1802 +0.05%
$SILVER 23.19 -0.25%
$COPPER 3.873 -0.25%
$PLAT 1008 -0.6%
$PALL 1938 +0.4%
$ALI 2480 -0.9%
$ZINC 3205 -0.95%

$GVZ 16.45

$GOLD range = 1770 - 1815 ♉️
$SILVER range = 21.83 - 24.05 ♉️
$COPPER range = 3.53 - 3.95 ♉️
Beaten down hydrocarbons ↔️

$WTIC 71.66 +0.3%
$BRENT 76.28 +0.15%
$GASO 2.041 -0.4%
$NATGAS 5.918 -0.75%

$OVX 47.17

$WTIC range = 67.5780.12 🐻 ⬅️ 6 handle❗️
$NATGAS range = 5.18 - 6.44 🐻
$DBC range = 23.4 - 25.09 🐻
Grains ↗️

$WHEAT 751 +0.5%
$CORN 645 +0.25%
$SOYB 1490 +0.3%
$SUGAR 19.77 +0.4%

$COFFEE ☕️ 158.38 -0.85%

$DBA range = 19.49 - 19.89 🐻
Brownian motion in #FX

$EUR 1.055 -0.05%
$GBP 1.225 +0.15%
$AUD 0.676 -0.12%
$USD 104.77 +0.02%
$USDJPY 136.31 -0.25%
$USDCHF 0.934 -0.21%
$USDCAD 1.364 -0.34%
$USDCNY 6.949 -0.27%

#FX vol 11.06

$USD range = 104.23 - 106.12 🐻
$GBP range = 1.202 - 1.234 ♉️
#Cryptocurrencies ↔️

$BTC 17216 -0.05%
$ETH 1282 -0.1%

#Bitcoin range = 15887 - 17514 🐻 ⬅️ 🔝
UST yields mostly↘️
10/2s to 80 bps
10Y3M to 79.7 bps

MOVE 129.54 🛗

$TNX range = 3.43 - 3.69 ♉️
$TLT range = 102.53 - 110.95 ↔️

Global 10Ys
UST 3.492
GILT 3.125
BUND 1.857
ITA 3.767
JPN 0.259
AUS 3.322
CAN 2.801
Today may be a warm-up with next Tuesday

#PPI projected at +7.3% 🔺 from +8.0%
Core #PPI to +5.9% 🔻 from 6.7%

Personally, I think it's a nothing 🍔 showing nothing but persistent #inflation

👁‍🗨 on 💵 and $TNX

Have a super profitable 💰 day and an 😎 weekend!

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More from @tdarling1

Dec 11
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

#CPI Preview
1/10

One 🤡 calls it #macrotourism, but #CPI and #FOMC policy response are the single most important issues to macro investors today.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

At his Brookings Institute speech at the end of November, Powell broke core #inflation into 3 components:

a) goods inflation
b) housing services inflation
c) services, ex-housing = wages
2a/10

Goods inflation is clearly coming down along with inputs into that equation.

$COOPER +10.65% in November is nonetheless -13% YTD Image
Read 23 tweets
Nov 20
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
11/20/2022

🧵 1/7

#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?

Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months conference-board.org/topics/us-lead…
1a/7

The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.

Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps
1b/7

According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.

richmondfed.org/publications/r…

Chart: Recession Indicators
Read 12 tweets
Nov 18
Hello #OPEX 🌊 and the week to date

$USD +0.41%
$GBP +0.25%
$GOLD -0.34%

$TLT +2.49%
$HYG -0.63%
$TNX -1.0%

$DAX +0.29%
$SSEC -0.32%
$NIKK -1.29%
$SPX -1.4%

$NATGAS +8.33%
$DBA -1.0%
#Bitcoin -1.93%
$SILVER -3.18%
$COPPER -5.63%
$WTIC -9.5%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed on a ↘️🎵

$NIKK 27900 -0.1%
$SSEC 3097 -0.6%
$TWII 14505 -0.2%
$HSI 17993 -0.3%
$KOSPI 2444 +0.05%
$IDX 7082 +0.5% ⬅️

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7152 +0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 61504 -0.4%
Europe with a persistent bid ↗️ ♉️

$DAX 14412 +1.0%
$FTSE 7393 +0.65%
$CAC 6641 +1.0%
$AEX 714 +0.75%
$IBEX 8107 +0.8%
$MIB 24634 +1.2%
$SMI 10993 +0.7%
$MOEX 21896 -0.75% ⬅️

$VSTOXX 21.35

$DAX range = 13563 - 14576 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Nov 16
Hello 🐫 day!

Did anyone else notice that the $USD is now 🐻 trend?

If it stays that way, the implications for risk assets are quite ♉️. And that's you're set up for the 🐫

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ to ↘️

$NIKK 28028 +0.15%
$SSEC 3120 -0.45%
$TWII 14537 -0.05%
$HSI 18256 -0.45%
$KOSPI 2477 -0.1%
$IDX 7104 -0.3%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7122 -0.25%

India ↔️
$BSE 61811 -0.1%
Europe has been 🔥 but mostly ↘️ this morning

$DAX 14274 -0.75%
$FTSE 7389 +0.25%
$CAC 6633 -0.15%
$AEX 716 -0.05%
$IBEX 8130 -0.7%
$MIB 24625 -0.3%
$SMI 10957 -0.65%
$MOEX 2222 unch

$VSTOXX 21

$DAX range = 13413 - 14612 ♉️
+6.1% over the past 3 months
Read 11 tweets
Nov 15
Hello Tuesday!

Big move 🚀 overnight in Hong Kong 🇭🇰 and the ♉️ continues to sniff around China 🇨🇳 with G20 making headlines in Indonesia as oil 🛢️continues to soften

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia mostly ↗️

$NIKK 27990 +0.1%
$SSEC 3134 +1.65%
$TWII 14546 +2.6%
$HSI 18343 +4.1% 🚀
$KOSPI 2480 +0.25%
$IDX 7035 +0.25%

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7142 -0.05%

India ↔️
$BSE 61683 +0.1%
Europe ↔️ and overextended

$DAX 14282 -0.2%
$FTSE 7387 +0.05%
$CAC 6628 +0.3%
$AEX 710 +0.5%
$IBEX 8134 -0.4%
$MIB 24527 -0.3%
$SMI 11017 +0.15%
$MOEX 2222 -1.0%

$VSTOXX 20.92

$DAX range = 13333 - 14552 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Nov 14
Hello Monday!

Fed Governor Waller out with a reminder that your risk asset exuberance is misguided

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed mostly ↘️ as Joe meets Xi

$NIKK 27964 -1.05%
$SSEC 3083 -0.15%
$TWII 14175 +1.2% 💾
$HSI 17620 +1.7% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2475 -0.35%
$IDX 7109 +1.0%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7146 -0.15%

India ↘️
$BSE 61710 -0.15%
Europe trading ↗️ ♉️

$DAX 14248 +0.15%
$FTSE 7357 +0.55%
$CAC 6613 +0.3%
$AEX 704 +0.2%
$IBEX 8113 +0.2%
$MIB 24517+0.25%
$SMI 11079 -0.6%
$MOEX 2242 +1.1%

$VSTOXX 21.43 🔺

$DAX range = 13249 - 14466 🆕♉️
Read 11 tweets

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