We all experiencing a very long bear market in #Bitcoin and #cryptocurrencies. We are about -77% in #Bitcoin price and below -90% in many altcoins🩸 In the following 🧵we want to show why we see this as an opportunity not the other way around.Your Stockmoney Lizards🦎
The market situation of #Bitcoin is often referred to as dead and there is no shortage of postulating new lows.
-12k, -10k (very popular), -8k or even -6k🩸🩸🩸 Everything is possible, but much is priced in already. We trade the future, not the present😘
Currently, we have the 4th major bear market in #Bitcoin. Compared to the last bear markets, there are clear patterns that repeat themselves🧊
We think we are at the end of the current bear market. All bear markets show falling wedge formation that needs to be broken.
In fact, there is always a so-called washout phase at the end, when many investors (most likely retail investors) leave the market. This is the last phase before the accumulation phase of #Bitcoin beginns.
Overall, the current bear market is marked by the post Covid-19 era. Inflation, Recession, increasing interest rates. In the end, however, it must be noted that #Bitcoin is an asset, not a stock with no earnings. #BTC is and remains inflation proof due to well known reasons.
Many technical indicators are literally screaming overbought. This is from the Markoanalyse always a good sign to enter a strong HODL position🧋
Note, we are not talking about short-term trading. #Bitcoin
The history of Bitcoin is lined with crash and so-called black-swan events. Especially the crypto exchanges play a special role here🥲
#FTX was and is such an event. But one thing is for sure, #Bitcoin will recover.
Especially the investment cycle of 2015 shows clear parallels and to the current market situation. Like today, at the end of the bear market and after final washout, the #Bitfinex crash happened (like #FTX crash now) 🦢
Currently, the price action of #Bitcoin looks very similar to 2015, although the macroeconomic circumstances are much worse. A popular comment under the tweets is: "this time is different" 🤡
Richard Wykoff, a famous stock investor, has described different market phases. One of the most interesting is the accumulation phase #Bitcoin is in. The Wykoff accumulation is divided into 5 phases, we are in phase C (Spring)🍿
It may well be that we still see a sideways price movement for a while, but we think that the worst is behind us, and especially technically speaking, there is hardly any room for 10k. The probability for the upward movement is much higher.
Currently we are 74% down from the last all-time high in 2021. In the following thread 🧵we would like to discuss how the investment cycles of #BTC look like and how they can be an advantage when investing.
Are there investment cycles in #bitcoin? Yes, we definitely think so💯 The cycles can be seen in the price, among other things, but also in technical indicators.
Here are shown different indicators (RSI, Money-flow index, Chaikin Oscillator) over the last 10 years of #Bitcoin. You can clearly see (usually with a timeframe > 1 week) that there are large cycles.
1. The upcoming UPGRADE to the #Ethereum blockchain🚀 2. Triple halvening this september (roughly equivalent to three Bitcoin halvenings) 👀 and 3. Possible implications for #ETH price movements📈📉
2/n
The Upgrade!
#Ethereum is expected to move to proof-of-stake! First, a Bellatrix upgrade will take place in the Beacon Chain on September 6, 2022. Once a certain difficulty value is reached, the proof-of-work chain will transition to proof-of-stake (10. - 20. Sept. 2022).
3/n
Implications of the upgrade - Inflation for #ETH will decrease!
- Currently inflating at ~4.13% (4.93M per year/119.3M total)
- After merge at ~ 0.49% (584K per year/119.3M total)
The triple halvening is an issuance cliff roughly equivalent to three #Bitcoin halvenings👀
Fiat currencies are a phase-out model and financial repression destroys much wealth. The latest inflation numbers shake up the bond markets. #Fed 2022 hawkishness hit another ATH after Employment Cost Index (ECI).
2/ To understand the current stage of crypto development, we can use an analogy and compare the number of cryptousers with that of the Internet. We are in the year 2000 of the Internet👀👀👀
3/ There are a lot of indicators for trading.But the main thing is that more and more people are using crypto (demand/wallets⬆️), although after 3rd halving hardly any #BTC are being mined (supply).
This leads to scarcity and stronger demand than supply.Thus,#Bitcoin price rise!