A mix of desperate need and marketing. It takes a willing suspension of disbelief to think that institutions the size of #Blackrock or #Vanguard actually manage money. To all practical purposes they are barges down a river, they depend on the current. (/)
As long as markets are reasonably favorable, that is not readily apparent. Amazingly, even events like 2022, with BOTH bonds and stocks falling more or less equally, are not a problem. That changes if one of two things happen:(/)
1. Bonds tank while equities lose small change:
2. For some reasons savers get rid of intermediaries and invest directly.

Both flavors of #MIFID work against 2. I won't even wonder if that's collateral damage or it was by design. (/)
The point is, these managers are too big to handle. It's allwell and good slicing and dicing the entire amount and show selected parts, which is what all multifund outfits do. Trying to find liquidity at that scale means you only have one counterparty: governments. (/)
So, why not advertise a "#FED Pivot"? If the FED doesn't and clients lose, it's the fed's fault. And if they do, you "added a valuable contribution to policy". @INArteCarloDoss @jeuasommenulle @jbhearn @degiorgiod @tyillc @AlessandroPonz4 @pietercleppe @eshow1969 @darioperkins

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More from @gbponz

Jan 5
piece 1: #Olkiluoto3 world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Olkil…, with its yearly production specs, a brief history of its cost overruns etc... and its 60 year design life. (/)
Piece 2: an offshore wind farm big enough to have similar peak production, its attendant connections between individual windmills and the shore, plus all the attendant on-demand conventional production gas turbines on standby. plus expected life of the plant.(/)
Read 5 tweets
Jan 5
wsj.com/articles/exxon… People in the US have no clue at how effed up #EU legal system is. So allow me to tell you the nightmare scenario: (/) @INArteCarloDoss @CNBCJou @moutet @GemmaTognini @Jkylebass @ResearchRonin @eshow1969 @Halsrethink @DukeMarcude
It's not the first time that an #EU country imposes an extraordinary, TARGETED tax on energy companies profit. And as always, if there is a way to eff up, you can count on us Italians being the tip of the spear. One was imposed by then minister #Tremonti in June 2008. (/)
gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2008/08… in it, there was a surtax on only energy companies, quite similar to what it is proposed here. That law was then declared unconstitutional in 2015... only for the future. (/)
Read 11 tweets
Nov 20, 2022
#Italy DECLARES, according to #Eurostat principles, an higher GDP etc.
Yet, as @michaelxpettis asserted today about #China;
1. Most of it is "directed" by the government;
2. "Government" GDP measures activity, not value added, and it's usually one for one with debt. (/)
As such, just google "Italian GDP and Debt to GDP" , and see what happens; #Italy has lost two decades vs. The rest of the #EU , in a "the tortoise and the SLOWER tortoise" parody of "the Tortoise and the hare". (/)
In fact, it could be construed that #Italy's business model is this: compressing sector growth from future years into the present one forcibly ( see the 110% house energy efficiency fiscal incentive), coupled with a "private success must be punished" bent.(/)
Read 7 tweets
Oct 12, 2022
mmmm... my views may be skewed by my long frequentation and love for the UK, but there is no way in Heaven or Hell that it might even come close to Italy in financial risk and political terms. Having said that, oversight has gone down the drain everywhere.(/)
As to Pension funds and such, I had the privilege to become acquainted and friend with a well placed expert. We are still in contact, and I have no doubt he is as appalled as I am at the total miss in risk assessment. But that's the nature of the beast.(/)
I was personally scolded, in my former life, for having told a University audience that insurance is prey to the "60 year old disease": CEOs, higher ups in insurance and pension funds can take actions who LOOK good now, ARE bad NOW, but whose effects won't be seen for a decade./
Read 7 tweets
Sep 12, 2022
While pollsters and pundits gave an advantage to the center-left sitting government in #Sweden's elections, results have edged to the right, irrespective of the final count. This is not a surprise to an Italian, but frankly it should surprise no one. aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/12… (/)
Here in #Italy there has always been a "skew" between polls and actual results, quite understandable in a country where the main stream media are firmly in the hands of the left wing establishment: there is actually a channel which was built to order by State television, Rai3.(/)
Read 10 tweets
Sep 11, 2022
Yet, there are TWO wars. One, is in #Ukraine, and Ukraine has consistently "punched above its weight". One is in #Europe, where the main Russian weapon has been #Germany./ @Halsrethink @TomekDeptuch @RobertMCutler @pietercleppe @nglinsman @pmakela1 @ResearchRonin @BaldingsWorld
While there are undoubted successes on the ground in #Ukraine, #Russia is still playing its card much better on #Europe. Keeping tensions high about #ZaporizhzhiaNuclearPowerPlant played into keeping #Germany from restarting its #NuclearPower plants.(/)
That keeps #Nordstream1 and 2 on the table, and renewables going for Russia (#RenewableEnergy is 2/3 gas, 1/3 whatever solar or wind you deploy). Even with a diversification of sources, Renewable fans won't drill domestically and two more years of #Biden will help. (/)
Read 4 tweets

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