Thread by @gbponz

wsj.com/articles/exxon… People in the US have no clue at how effed up #EU legal system is. So allow me to tell you the nightmare scenario: (/) @INArteCarloDoss @CNBCJou @moutet @GemmaTognini @Jkylebass @ResearchRonin @eshow1969 @Halsrethink @DukeMarcude

It's not the first time that an #EU country imposes an extraordinary, TARGETED tax on energy companies profit. And as always, if there is a way to eff up, you can count on us Italians being the tip of the spear. One was imposed by then minister #Tremonti in June 2008. (/)

gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2008/08… in it, there was a surtax on only energy companies, quite similar to what it is proposed here. That law was then declared unconstitutional in 2015... only for the future. (/)

cortecostituzionale.it/actionSchedaPr… here is the text, and here are the consequences: oil companies pay the tax (there is no "escrow account" mechanism.... for now), then when it is declared inconstutional.. DON'T get the money back. (/)

But leave it to #Italy to bravely lead the way once more. Look at the composition of the court, and who drafted the final considerations. Does any name ring a bell? (/)

If you saw Giuliano Amato, who enacted a wealth tax on cash balances on a Sunday, you score one point. If you saw #Mattarella, then sitting president of the Republic who was party to the litigation, you score three. (/)

But to score ten, you have to see Marta #Cartabia, who as Justice minister under #Draghi, VOTED a similar measure once over. So, what's the angle for #Europe here? (/)

Easy. Energy production is a huge undertaking taking years of investments. So ANY wobble in legal continuity in ANY EU country should have sounded air raid alarm in Brussels.... not. youtube.com/clip/UgkxwiaZ5…

To be clearer: no sane man would start a multi year investment under a legal system where there is a risk of the government granting the concession would renege on principle and without compensating for that. In financial parlance, that raises the required IRR to compensate.(/)

This of course puts many otherwise viable investments under water (negative net present value)... allowing governments to score a 2 - 0 by claiming that oil investment is "unprofitable". (/)

Oh, and for the courious: #Draghi government had penciled in 10 bn. EUR income from that reprise, it got about 2. Fool me once.... @andrepaltry @staunovo @Ed___________0