1⃣ The territory of what remains of de facto Nagorno Karabakh (NK) after the 2020 War, and more so this past month, is without a doubt one of the most internationally isolated areas in the world. With a post-2020 ethnic Armenian population of around 120,000, inside what...
2⃣ ...Azerbaijan considers it´s sovereign territory after the fall of the Soviet Union (adhering to the internal borders created by Soviet authorities). NK nonetheless, has remained outside of any Azeri political, military and administrative jurisdiction since the early 1990s,...
3⃣...as a de facto territory (or some may say unrecognised state) with a self-styled government (ministries, administrative body, local military, etc.) echoing that of any other sovereign state. Despite this separation, NK Armenians hold Armenian passports.
4⃣ Having an ethnic Armenian population, NK naturally sought the protection of Armenia proper since the 1990s. Up until the political upheaval in Armenia of 2018, the latter's military and foreign doctrine had engraved in it the physical security of NK's Armenian population.
5⃣ All of this would end with the new leadership in Armenia starting 2018, that sought to distance itself as the sole guarantor of NK, in favour of advancing a peace agenda with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The 2020 War in NK highlighted this disengagement, and paved the way for...
6⃣...major Azeri military gains in the south of NK, and the transfer of territories formerly under Karabakhi control (Lachin, Aghdam and Kelbajar) to Azeri authorities. 
7⃣ SINCE THE 2020 WAR - The Azeri military has stepped up its presence in the newly-acquired (either transferred or militarily gained) territories, with new military bases, installations, and positions, some inside Armenia proper (set up during the 2021 and 2022 incursions.)
8⃣ With the 2020 War stopped by Russian mediation, the latter deployed around 2000 peacekeepers inside what was left of de facto NK to deter any further large-scale confrontation, and who currently are the sole guarantor for the physical security of ethnic Armenians in NK.
9⃣ With Armenia's current political leadership waning in diplomatic and military terms, especially after the 2020 War, authorities in Yerevan have sought to minimise any security-related plans regarding NK, giving the impression that "the problem is now Russia's to deal with."
🔟IN THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL context with the West focused on the Ukraine crisis to counter Russia, the latter tied up in it's own military campaign, with less military, political and diplomatic resources to deploy towards its assets in NK,...
1⃣1⃣ ...one has seen the growth of an ever-asserting leadership in Baku this past year, whose president Aliyev recently stated that Armenia itself is "Western Azerbaijan" and the capital Yerevan is a historical Azeri city. An Azerbaijan, bolstered by Turkey, itself seeking...
1⃣2⃣ to increase its presence in the Caucasus, Nagorno Karabakh and it´s remaining population of 120,000 (from 160,000 before the 2020 war) are at risk of a major irreversible exodus in what some experts suggest could be a case of ethnic cleansing, with almost no international...
1⃣3⃣... presence in the territory other than a few dozen @ICRC members, a @HALO_NK presence and 2000 Russian peacekeepers with no large-scale combat capability. The 12 December 2022 blockade by Azeri authorities, gas supply interruption, electricity blackouts and now internet...
1⃣4⃣...interruption have all but isolated the territory in terms of trade, medicine, communication and transit from the outside world, suggesting far more than just an eco-activist blockade as reported by Azeri authorities.
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