Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 13 11 tweets 4 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%

$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%

$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%

#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↗️ ex-Japan

$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7328 +0.65%

India ↗️
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
Europe ↗️♉️

$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch

$VSTOXX 17.49 🔻⬅️

$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 ♉️
🇺🇸 futures ↔️

$ES 3982 unch
$NQ 11444 -0.15%
$RTY 1878 +0.3%

$VIX 18.88 🔻⬅️

$SPX range = 2752 - 4047 ♉️
$COMPQ range = 10598 - 11071 ♉️
$IWM range = 176 - 189 ♉️
$VIX range = 17.21 - 23.50 🐻
GOLD ↗️ with metals ↔️

$GOLD 1908 +0.5%
$SILVER 23.94 -0.25%
$COPPER 41.78 -0.45%
$PLAT 1081 +0.2%
$PALL 1799 +0.45%
$ALI 2544 -0.2%
$ZINC 3289 +1.65%

$GVZ 15.95 🔻

$GOLD range = 1835 - 1925 ♉️
$SILVER range = 23.17 - 24.53 ♉️
$COPPER range = 3.87 - 4.30 ♉️
Hydrocarbons ↔️

$WTIC 78.66 +0.35%
$BRENT 84.27 +0.3%
$GASO 2.467 -0.3%
$NATGAS 3.678 -0.45%

$OVX 39.28 🔻⬅️

$WTIC range = 72.48 - 80.99
$NATGAS range = 2.76 - 4.79
$DBC range = 23.49 - 24.90
Grains ↔️

$WHEAT 747 +0.5%
$CORN 674 +0.4%
$SOYB 1524 +0.3%
$SUGAR 19.55%

$COFFEE ☕️ 149.08 -0.4%

$DBA range = 19.28 - 19.81 🐻
$USD continues to fail

$EUR 1.084 -0.06%
$GBP 1.223 +0.23%
$AUD 0.698 +0.06%
$USD 101.95 -0.05%
$USDJPY 128.55 -0.52%
$USDCHF 0.93 +0.23%
$USDCAD 1.334 -0.13%
$USDCNY 6.712 -0.4%

#FX vol 10.49

$USD range = 101.03105.14 🐻
🔑 level = 102.12

$GBP range = 1.190 - 1.232 ♉️
#Cryptocurrencies ↔️ as #bitcoin breaks to neutral Trend (T)

$BTC 18902 +0.25%
$ETH 1412 -0.25%

#Bitcoin range = 16941 - 19244 🆕 ↔️
UST yields ↔️
10/2s to -68 bps
10Y3M to -120 bps ⬅️

MOVE 112.34

$TNX range = 3.38 - 3.66 🐻
$TLT range = 98.51 - 109.24 ♉️

Global 10Ys 🔻
UST 3.441
GILT 3.307
BUND 2.106
ITA 3.915
JPN 0.5
AUS 3.583
CAN 2.901
With the $USD, $TNX and $VIX breaking down with growth 🔺 and inflation 🔻, we have a #quad1 / #Goldilocks confirmation

That #macro reality is running headlong into a 🦅 FOMC on 02/01

Until then, positive 🌊 into #opex 🥐

Have a super profitable 💰 day and GREAT weekend!

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More from @tdarling1

Jan 15
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023

1/11

Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons

#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%

Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻 Image
1a/11

Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.

Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks

Chart:
2/11

While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12

Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend Image
Read 21 tweets
Jan 6
Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%

$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%

$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%

#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
#ADP private payrolls rose to +230,000 in December.

The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher

Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.
Asia finished the week mostly ↗️

$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%

India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
Read 12 tweets
Jan 5
Hello Thursday!

Santa 🎅 came and went, leaving $SPX holder +0.8% over the last 6 trading days of the year 🎁

🐫 also showed up, robbing $DBC holders -4.14% and $DBA holders -2.28%. $CRB under pressure -4.89% in 2 trading days.

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed mostly ↗️ save 🇮🇩

$NIKK 25821 +0.4%
$SSEC 3155 +1.0%
$TWII 14301 +0.7%
$HSI 21052 +1.25%
$KOSPI 2265 +0.4%
$IDX 6654 -2.35% 🇮🇩

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7064 +0.05%

India ↘️
$BSE 60353 -0.5%
Europe ↔️ after $FEZ +4.25% to start the year

$DAX 14483 -0.05%
$FTSE 7612 +0.35%
$CAC 6765 +0.15%
$AEX 717 +0.05%
$IBEX 8589 +0.35%
$MIB 24879 +0.05%
$SMI 11091 -0.45%
$MOEX 2159 -0.45%

$VSTOXX 19.23 🔻

$DAX range = 13723 - 14511 ♉️
Read 13 tweets
Jan 4
Well, hello 🐫 day!

Precious metals making fresh 6-month highs as $TNX puts in a big higher low with $WTIC taking the 🐫

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ with 🇭🇰 ↗️ 🇯🇵 ↘️

$NIKK 25717 -1.45% 🇯🇵
$SSEC 3124 +0.2%
$TWII 14199 -0.2%
$HSI 20793 +3.2% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 2256 +1.65%
$IDX 613 -1.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7059 +1.65%

India ↘️
$BSE 60657 -1.05%
Europe ♉️↗️↗️

$DAX 14415 +1.65%
$FTSE 7604 +0.65%
$CAC 6743 +1.8%
$AEX 718 +1.5%
$IBEX 8531 +1.6%
$MIB 24770 +1.35%
$SMI 11117 +1.25%
$MOEX 2168 -0.2%

$VSTOXX 19.66 🔻

$DAX range = 13740 - 14531 ♉️
Read 12 tweets
Jan 3
Hello Tuesday and the first trading day of 2023!

Some unusual activity to start your new year with $USD, $GOLD, $VIX, and $ES all trading noticeably higher while $UST10Y drops like a stone.

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia mostly ↗️ to start the year

$NIKK holiday 🥳
$SSEC 3117 +0.9%
$TWII 14224 +0.6%
$HSI 20145 +1.85%
$KOSPI 2219 -0.3% ⬅️
$IDX 6889 +0.55%

Australia ↘️ hard
$ASX 6946 -1.3%

India ↗️
$BSE 61294 +0.2%
Europe 🚀

$DAX 14268 +1.4%
$FTSE 7605 +2.05%
$CAC 6674 +1.2%
$AEX 714 +1.75%
$IBEX 8445 +0.9%
$MIB 24534 +1.55%
$SMI 11001 +2.55%
$MOEX 2169 +0.7%

$VSTOXX 20.42

$DAX range = 13699 - 14153 ⬅️ ♉️ 🔝
Read 11 tweets
Jan 2
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵

1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.

This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.

2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).

Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.

wsj.com/articles/russi…
Read 7 tweets

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