Besides the acknowledged narrow scope of the new NYU #disinfo study one of the biggest issues IMHO with the study was the utilization of voter survey data. The issues targeted by the Kremlin was much more nuanced than voter survey data available 2 the authors.. AFTER THE FACT 1/4 Image
This was no fault of the authors given they had to do a retrospective study. The authors did find subtle shifts (but not statistically significant) and if you looked at the questions that would have been most relevant to the Kremlin ... these pro-Kremlin shifts were largest. 2/4 ImageImageImage
Important nuanced questions that would not likely have been in most voter survey data collected prior to the 2016 election & appeared to be important in the targeting by the Kremlin would have been below (I'm sure there are others). Chinese tariffs & Obamacare... not so much 3/4 ImageImage
With 20/20 hindsight the perfect study would have been 2 look at some of the more nuanced questions & how the sentiment / attitudes shifted after exposure to Russian disinformation (Facebook + Twitter). And look at differences based on Sex (M/F) & based on race (white / POC) 4/4
Its important 2 note that this study ONLY looked at the effects of #Twitter on a subset of votes based on voter survey data they could access. The effects of the Kremlin hack & dump and Kremlin #disinfo on Facebook was not looked at. Heres our prior thread
Lastly with this study design, any shifts in voting behaviors towards or away from Trump were always going 2 be minimal given the fact that 4 this dataset the Twitter accounts with the highest concentration of exposure to Russian #disinfo was among strongly Republican #RussiaGate Image
My good friend @ushadrons made another good pt. One segment that was most definitely targeted by the Russian IRA trolls would not have had much if any presence in the YouGov voter survey data that the authors paired with 2 do this study. I'd be very curious of their age breakdown ImageImage

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More from @SlickRockWeb

Jan 13
I’ve always believed that one of the greatest benefits that Twitter provides to foreign influence operations like Russia in 2016 is “narrative seeding” & pushing the narrative needle among journalists & social media influencers. #osint #RussiaGate #MuellerReport #disinfo #infosec
NYU @CSMaP_NYU and its authors are also trying to push back on the right-wing narrative that continues to be ubiquitous in RW circles that the Kremlin’s efforts at interfering with our 2016 elections had no effect. The the narrow scope of their research did NOT conclude that
Even yesterday on multiple large right-wing Twitter spaces the NYU study was being touted as proof Russian interference in our election in 2016 was a hoax…their #RussiaGate. A narrative that they have pushed for yrs despite overwhelming evidence from #MuellerReport & researchers Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 9
Rosalie is more kind to this study than I will likely be (still reading it). But her assessment is spot on. The questions they asked & tools they used gave them an answer. Problem is its not definitive & doesn't advance our understanding of whether foreign influence #InfoOps work
For example I could argue, with lots of empirical data, that the attitudes of Republicans towards NATO and Putin / Russia HAVE absolutely shifted significantly towards the Kremlin's favor ..exactly as the Kremlin has wanted. Neither of these narratives were looked at in the study
Trying to determine effectiveness within the aggregate of the whole social mediasphere is of course going 2b extremely difficult. Like with some effective cyber attacks u flood the zone (white noise) so that the very small very significant target actions are nearly imperceptible
Read 5 tweets
Jan 8
Really interesting article and must read. Aligns with what @visionsurreal, @jennycohn1 @gal_suburban myself and others have been finding.
Here is one thread we did on ATH at the Capitol on #Jan6th a few months ago cc @davetroy @TaylorMatthewD
@davetroy @TaylorMatthewD And at least one NAR flag made it into the Capitol crypt that day on #Jan6th. I believe this guy is still unidentified.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 22, 2022
So this is a super interesting line of questioning of General Michael Flynn. Does anyone know what was written in this letter … that may or may not be a forgery?
Hmmm …. the J6C appears to be referencing this forged letter from the Iranian group that tried to mess with the 2020 elections.
Appears to all be related 2 the "Enemies of the People" campaign back in 2020. A number of us at the time thought with moderate confidence that it was a Russian operation. Turns out it was Iranian with likely a Russian assist. Don't remember the letter
Read 7 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
BREAKING: There are at least 2 separate hacking campaigns going on & focusing in on the #Twitter blue checkmark verification process. One appears to be #phishing based and another far more nefarious .. and possibly a state actor using Twitter DMs. More shortly. Be alert #infosec
All political candidates running & in office are typically Twitter verified (blue checkmark). Most major journalists are as well. This is a HUGE target 4 a #cyberattack by a nation state actor. This campaign which is still under the radar is very worrisome
Liz @lizthegrey has done greaat work on this. Its not clear how widespread this is but it has some very concerning network indicators. And its significantly more sophisticated than the phishing email that is going around. #infosec #phishing #cybersecurity #malware #Election2022
Read 11 tweets
Oct 30, 2022
Its even worse than this now. Fake 911 dispatches have been crested and circulated. Its a firehose of disinformation to make the obvious right-wing political violence towards the Pelosi’s appear to be anything else. #disinfo #Election2022
This is the perfect meme for all the @GOP politicians who refuse to condemn this political violence against Paul Pelosi and Nancy Pelosi. Exactly how they couldnt condemn the attempted coup on #Jan6th after they were called out. Image
So the #FoxNews stories around the Pelosi assault suspect seem to be very conveniently neglecting to mention a very easy to find piece of information … that Oxane Taub or Gypsy Taub as she is better known is Russian and has made numerous trips back to Russia. Weird …
Read 5 tweets

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