Thread by @Mathieu_Droin

Yesterday @EmmanuelMacron and @sanchezcastejon signed a Friendship Treaty between 🇫🇷 and 🇪🇸

The 🇫🇷 President will then host 🇩🇪 @Bundeskanzler Scholz on Sunday, before welcoming 🇬🇧 PM @RishiSunak on March 10th

What is the strategic significance of this busy bilateral agenda?🧵

Each of these summits has its own bilateral rationale. But they are also illustrative of 🇫🇷 multilayered approach of collective security alongside #NATO and the🇪🇺 #EU, and of President Macron’s willingness to reconnect the dots between main Western Europe capitals. 2/16

With Spain, the Friendship Treaty raises the relation to the highest level, on par with 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹. It confirms 🇪🇸 centrality, as it hosted the last NATO Summit, will chair the next EU Council and host the third European Political Community #EPC summit in the second half of 2023

🇪🇸 is considered by 🇫🇷 as a capable, like-minded partner. The treaty entails an update of the defense cooperation agreement dating back from 1983. It calls for a strengthening of “European strategic autonomy”. elysee.fr/admin/upload/d…

With 🇩🇪, Sunday will be the 23rd Franco-German Ministers Council #CMFA, on the date of the 60th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty.

The Summit has been repeatedly postponed, as it has been difficult to establish a bilateral chemistry for the post-Merkel era. 5/16

My 1st @CSIS piece was on the need to reboot the “Franco-German Engine”. Much remains valid today. The engine almost sputtered in October following a series of spats, on energy, on uncoordinated European Sky Shield Initiative or #Scholz trip to #China 🇨🇳. csis.org/analysis/reboo…

After a “settling scores” lunch in Paris between the two leaders late October and a collective effort by both governments, progress has been made, as exemplified by the agreement on the flagship project of Future Combat Air System #FCAS lemonde.fr/en/economy/art…

Much remains to be done, the Summit being held amidst heated debate on #tanks deliveries to #Ukraine. German addiction to the U.S. in terms of defense, which appears untouched if not reinforced by the #Zeitenwende, remains a major source of discord between France and Germany.

With the UK, the March 10 Summit will be a key step towards a “détente cordiale” after half decade of tensions, which culminated with the #AUKUS deal in 2021.

Prime Minister #Sunak himself and his government appear much more open and eager to repair ties with Paris. 9/16

Security and Defense will be central to the Summit, which will aim at refreshing the 2010 Lancaster House treaties. Talks may revolve around capability cooperation, rejuvenating the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force and cooperation on key foreign policy issues (🇺🇦, Indo-Pac)

These bilateral upgrades follow the Quirinal Treaty, hammered out in 2021 with Italy under Mario Draghi. Relations have soured after the election of Giorgia #Meloni; although the two leaders and governments strive to maintain a functioning relationship.

In 2021 🇫🇷 also signed a very significant defense agreement with Greece in Sep. 2021, which includes a mutual defense clause, described by @EliePerot as a case of “embedded Alliance” among NATO allies. brussels-school.be/publications/o…

In addition to bilateral, France has also been very active in building minilateral formats, notably in the Indopacific (🇦🇪🇫🇷🇮🇳 or 🇮🇳🇮🇩🇫🇷) and in putting together "ad-hoc coalitions", such as #EMASoH in the Strait of Hormuz or the now dismantled #Takuba in Sahel. 13/16

This “mille-feuille” of partnerships serves several purposes, chief of them: efficiency, subsidiarity, autonomy. This could be best depicted in concentric circles, in which each smaller circle should be able to act autonomously should the larger circles fail or refuse to act.

It is also consistent with 🇫🇷 sentiment that it has a pivotal role to play in bringing Europeans together. It pursues this objective at the smaller scale, knitting a network of bilateral agreements, and at the broader scale through inclusive formats such as the EPC. 15/16

It is finally indicative of an effort to rebuild bridges between major European powerhouses, whose relations need new impetus after a series of difficult elections, and as they all grapple with busy domestic and international agendas. END

With the correct handle for @Elie_Perot