Thread by @thomasdggeddes

🔹Most read article on Chinese aggregator of scholarly articles Aisixiang (爱思想) over the past 30 days:

“Ten critical shifts in international politics in 2023 and their prospects” by CUHK scholar Zheng Yongnian (郑永年).

🧵 EXCERPTS

#UnitedStates:

▫️ “When it comes to international political risks, the US's domestic problems have to be placed at the top of the list ... the US’s internal divisions produce huge externalities that have far-reaching effects on world politics.”

▫️ "So, will a transfer [of the US’s domestic tensions] occur at the military level? This is even more worrying. Countries must guard themselves against this [各国不可不防]."

#UkraineRussianWar:

▫️ “Although most countries, including #China, #India and #Turkey, all want an early end to the war, they are not the main actors in this war and cannot decide its future. Will this war develop into a nuclear war? This is what many people are worried about.”

#NATO:

▫️ "The process of 🇪🇺's NATOisation is accelerating ... In fact, NATO is not only expanding to the east, but also to the Asia-Pacific ... In future, NATO has the potential to become a leading supra-regional force ... This is exerting enormous geopolitical pressure on 🇨🇳.”

#NorthKorea:

▫️ “For countries in East Asia, the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula not only exists but is worsening, It is only because there are so many other problems, and so serious are these, that the crisis on the peninsula has not been given enough attention.”

#MiddleEast:

▫️ “Although #China will not proactively intervene in the Middle East's geopolitical battles, we must take precautions against their [potential] impact on us."

#India:

▫️ "India will not become a vassal of the US, but will attempt to become an independent pole of power. Supported by the West, India’s determined rise will put considerable geopolitical pressure upon #China."

#LatinAmerica:

▫️ "For 🇨🇳, the polarised politics of Latin American countries such as 🇧🇷 (a BRICS country) or 🇻🇪 create great uncertainty ... Thus, 🇨🇳 should pay all the more attention to multilateral diplomacy and strengthen cooperation with BRICS countries.”

#UnitedNations:

▫️ "The marginalisation of the existing UN-centred world order continues apace … China is the biggest advocate and supporter of the UN system. How to repair or even rebuild the UN system is the challenge we face."

#USA-#China:

▫️ "Although opposition between the US and China will continue for a long time to come, it is important for China to remain calm and rational."

▫️ "First, we must 'fight but not break ['斗而不破'] ... Second, we should ‘fight but not go to war’ [斗而不战]."

▫️"China has to deal with the US as a country, as opposed to dealing with the few anti-🇨🇳 politicians and anti-🇨🇳 political forces [in the US] ... and, with our goal of reshaping the world order in mind, use our wisdom in a particularly rational manner to manage 🇨🇳-🇺🇸 relations.”

🔹 For more on this and other topics as viewed by Chinese scholars:

sinification.substack.com/p/top-read-int…